Friday, August 30, 2019

2018 Season Recap and NCAA Week 1 WINNER$ (We're BACK BABY)

Finished last year barely losing money because of a 1-4 finish in week 17.  What a joke!  Remember the bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($17,270) + $16,800 + $330 = ($140).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of the last week of the 2018 season.

PHI @ WAS +6.5  LOSS 28 - 0 (Margin +28)  Way to show up Skins.

DET +8 @ GB WIN 31 - 0 (Margin -31)  Well that was unexpected but who doesn't love it when the Packers get shut out?

LAC @ DEN +6.5 LOSS 23 - 9 (Margin +14)  That sucks.

CHI @ MIN -4.5 LOSS 24 - 10 (Margin +14)  Way to lay an egg Cousins.  What an offensive line they had.

IND @ TEN +3 LOSS 33 - 17 (Margin +16)  You'd think they had something to play for and come out to win, but no.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 1 picks!  Aug 31 - Sep 2 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

E. Michigan @ Coastal Carolina +6

Northwestern @ Stanford -6

Georgia @ Vanderbilt +22.5

Missouri @ Wyoming +17

Georgia State +22.5 @ Tennessee

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 18/NFL Week 17 Record: 1-4-0 (20.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 80-74-3 (51.95 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (14 weeks) 33-36-2 (47.83 %) VERSUS SVP 59-56-1 (51.30 %)
NFL 2018 Record (17 weeks):  47-38-1 (55.29 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  42 of 133 (31.57 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14: +29.0 with spread.  +101.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15: -17.5 with spread.  +11.0 straight up.
NFL 15/NCAA16:  -42.5 with spread. -29.0 straight up.
NFL 16/NCAA17:  -37.0 with spread.  -26.0 straight up.
NFL17/NCAA18:  +21.5 with spread.  +41.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +99.5  (+5.53/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +864.00 (+48.00/week vs +42.47/week spread)