Go by the See-Saw, Smoke a J? You know what I'm Talkin' About?

Back and forth, back and forth.  Gotta take the highs with the lows.  You know what else is good?  Yoo-Hoo with a little bit of rum in it.  No, I'm not talkin' about Rumpelstiltskin.  Anyway, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short synopsis of why things went the way they did:

• Rutgers @ Army +4.5 LOSS 31 - 21 (Margin +10)  Army threw an INT in the red zone during the middle of the 4Q and never got the ball back.


• North Carolina @ Va. Tech +4 WIN 30 - 27 OT (Margin +3)  This was heading to bad beat central when it hit OT.  Luckily the Hokies kicked a FG and UNC scored a TD instead of forcing double OT.


• LSU @ Ole Miss -6.5 WIN 17 - 38 (Margin -21)  Rarely are favorites given out here, but this was one of three this week.  Rebels jumped out to a 24-0 lead before the Bayou Bengals roared back with 3 scores of their own to bring it back to a 7 point margin.  Looks like the turnover bug burned the Tigers (can't say for sure, didn't watch).


• Michigan St. @ Ohio St. -13.5 LOSS 17 - 14 (Margin +3)  How does a team with the longest winning streak in the country and "the three best QBs all on the same team" only manage five effing first downs against a team that gave up 39 points to NEBRASKA.  Oh yeah, Sparty also started a back-up QB.  I could go insane trying to figure out this game, so I'll just chalk it up to stupid college kids choking when it counts most.


• OAK @ DET -1 WIN 13 - 18 (Margin -5)  Look at those pesky Lions getting a couple wins in a row for me.  


• DAL @ MIA +1 LOSS 24 - 14 (Margin +10)  Romo comes back and Miami continues to be Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.


• NYJ @ HOU +4 WIN 17 - 24 (Margin -7)  Wouldn't be a week without an outright underdog win.  This bet actually made sense.  Texans in first place after a big win on MNF, a reason to play hard.  Good thing the public was still all over the Jets.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 4-3-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 39-42-4 (48.1%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (9 weeks) 27-35-3
NFL 2015 Record (9 weeks):  12-7-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  22 of 80 (27.5%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +257.5  (+28.6/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +892  (+99.1/week vs +70.5/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Picks!  Nov 24 - Nov 30 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Troy -1 @ Georgia St.  LOSS

Washington St. @ Washington -7.5  WIN

UMass +6.5 @ Buffalo  WIN

Va. Tech @ Virginia +3.5  WIN

Georgia @ Ga. Tech +4  LOSS

North Carolina @ NC State +3.5  LOSS

Northwestern @ Illinois +3.5  LOSS

OAK @ TEN +1  LOSS

ARI @ SF +10  WIN

TB @ IND -3  WIN

I Have No Words. I Am WITHOUT WORDS.

Maybe I should stop picking college games.  You can't even make what happened last week up.  I was feeling pretty good based on the numbers of those games.  Probably the best I've felt starting off the week.  Everything was perfect, the public was all on the favorites (70% or greater) and the lines were either locked in or moving the other way.  Just incredible.  I guess I'm not really the one to blame, I ONLY give picks based on betting trends which are entirely influenced by the wise guys.  So that's it, I'm calling out the wise guys for having shitty information and making dumb bets.  Stop screwing with me in NCAAF.

Alas, I will not give up though, this is for entertainment purposes only!  Just like the captain of the Titantic, I'm going down with the ship (and I'm not conceding that it's going down yet, see: 2015 NFL Winners Record).  Anyway, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short synopsis of why I got killed on the gambling front this week:

• Maryland +15 @ Michigan St. LOSS 7 - 24 (Margin +17)  This clearly wasn't that bad, but Maryland couldn't hit pay dirt two weeks in a row for me.  Five turnovers including a pick 6.  I know the Terps were the right side.  Oh yeah, MD was intercepted on their last drive somewhere inside the MSU 30.


• NC State +8 @ FSU LOSS 17 - 34 (Margin +17)  Up 10 early and tied at half.  No excuse for the Wolfpack here.  FSU gave them the ball five times.


• Arkansas St. @ UL-Monroe +14.5 LOSS 59 - 21 (Margin +38)  Started off as a back and forth shootout.  Tied at 21 late in the 2Q.  Then UL-M imploded.  Five turnovers including a pick 6.  Do all college football teams turnover the ball this much?  Or just the ones I pick for winners.  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.


• Florida Int'l +10 @ Marshall LOSS 0 - 52 (Margin +52)  I don't think Marshall is that good on D and I don't think FIU is that bad on offense, but you see the result as plainly as I do.  Again, I have no words.


• So. Mississippi @ Rice +7.5 LOSS 65 - 10 (Margin +55)  As if the FIU game wasn't nightmare enough, I had to live through it twice.


• Wyoming +23.5 @ San Diego St. LOSS 3 - 38 (Margin +35)  Down 28, the Cowboys storm down the field to the SDSU 4 yard line in three plays.  Then throw an INT and give up a clock eating drive ending with a TD.


• DET +12 @ GB WIN 18 - 16 (Margin -2)  This was like a double or a triple win.  Lions win outright, cover easily, AND the Packers lose.


• CAR @ TEN +4.5 LOSS 27 - 10 (Margin +17)  Was 4 point game at half.  Titans didn't score the rest of the game.  They were primed for a back door cover for the entire second half until the Panthers put them on ice with just under 3 minutes to go.


• KC +4.5 @ DEN WIN 29 - 13 (Margin -16)  Another outright road win for the underdog.  Denver continued to be overvalued by the public.  Considering how Peyton is injured (didn't know until watching part of the game) it looks like KC should have been favored!  Denver won't be overvalued now!

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 2-7-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 35-39-4 (47.3%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (8 weeks) 25-33-3
NFL 2015 Record (8 weeks):  10-6-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  21 of 76 (27.6%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +257  (+32.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +899  (+112.4/week vs +80.3/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Nov 17 - Nov 23 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Rutgers @ Army +4.5  LOSS

North Carolina @ Va. Tech +4  WIN

LSU @ Ole Miss -6.5  WIN

Mich St. @ Ohio St. -13.5  LOSS

OAK @ DET -1  WIN

DAL @ MIA +1  LOSS

NYJ @ HOU +3  WIN

I Have Exorcised the Demons. This House Is Clear.

Oh boy did I need that last week.  I was never worried though.  The system is a lot like the Veer, an offense ran by the 1971 T.C. Williams Titans (also the 2000-2002 BHS Lumberjacks).  It's like Novocaine; just give it time, always works.  By the way, when I looked up that video I came across an interesting article about the validity of that movie.  Seems as if Coach Boone wasn't all he was made out to be.  That's neither here nor there, but if you care to check it out, use the google machine.  I'm sure you'll find it. As for the purpose of this post, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short synopsis of why I killed it on the gambling front this week:

• Virginia +6 @ Miami (FL) PUSH 21 - 27 (Margin +6)  Back and forth game, luckily Virginia agreed with me and kicked the FG while down two scores and then tried for the onside kick.  Push is a win and we start off shaky.


• Charlotte +17 @ Florida Int'l PUSH 31 - 48 (Margin +17)  Hung with FIU the whole game.  Similar in total offense and had more 1st downs.  Got the back door cover/push with 2:40 left.


• Wisconsin @ Maryland +10.5 WIN 31 - 24 (Margin +7)  Tied at half.  Went down 14 in 2nd half.  Got the back door cover with 2:44 left.


• Louisiana-Lafayette @ Ga. St. +2.5 WIN 23-21 (Margin +2)  Ga. State lost this game with a fake punt from deep in their own territory.  Luckily they only allowed a FG and all was right with the world (for bettors).


• Iowa @ Indiana +6.5 LOSS 35 - 27 (Margin +8)  One TD away.  Kept it close all game.  Scored to get it within 8 late.  Couldn't recover onside kick.


• Marshall @ Midd. Tenn St. -2.5 WIN 24 - 27 (Margin -3)  Rare favorite given out.  Both teams missed FGs in the second OT.  Barely escaped in the third OT, kid kicks a career long AND Marshall went to their kickoff kicker for the FG try and it was blocked!  Marshall attempted six FGs and made one in the game.


• UConn @ Tulane +5 WIN 7 - 3 (Margin +4)  Wow this game was a dog-baby.  This game went scoreless for the last 38:40 of the game.


• MSU @ Nebraska +6 WIN 38 - 39 (Margin -1)  No idea how this game won.  It was the ugliest line of the season.  It even went down to +3.5 before kickoff.  Some controversy on the game winning TD.  Some people are saying that the receiver wasn't forced out, and I agree.  But the actual rule doesn't say anything about "forcing."  It says, "No eligible offensive receiver who goes out of bounds and returns in bounds during a down shall touch a legal forward pass while in the field of play or end zones or while airborne until it has been touched by an opponent or official (A.R. 7-3-4-I, II and IV). [Exception: This does not apply to an originally eligible offensive player who immediately returns inbounds after going out of bounds due to contact by an opponent (A.R. 7-3-4-III)]. If he touches the pass before returning in bounds, it is an incomplete pass (Rule 7-3- 7) and not a foul for illegal touching."  So there!


• ISU +24.5 @ Oklahoma LOSS 16 - 52 (Margin +36)  As I posted in the EDIT in the original post, this line moved a bunch during Saturday, and not in the right direction.  Seemed like it should be okay.  ISU shut out Texas.  Texas beat OU.  So how is OU 36 points better than ISU?  College football.  Oh I see now, OU scored 4 TDs of 55 yards or greater.  Come on Cyclones.


• NYG @ TB +2.5 LOSS 32 - 18 (Margin +14)  TB failed on a 2pt conversion that would have tied the game.  Then had 3 possessions to score and failed.  Just one TD would have done it.  Forget the last play of the game which was a desperation lateral that the Giants scooped and scored to add insult to injury.


• CHI +4 @ SD WIN 22 - 19 (Margin -3)  Almost went a week without an outright underdog winner!  Wait, I forgot about Nebraska.  Okay well this makes two.  This game could have been even worse for SD.  Bears missed 2 FGs and threw a pick-six yet STILL won.

NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Record: 6-3-2

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 33-32-4 (50.8%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (7 weeks) 25-27-3
NFL 2015 Record (7 weeks):  8-5-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  19 of 67 (28.4%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +143.5  (+20.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +686  (+98/week vs +77.5/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Picks!  Nov 10 - Nov 16 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Maryland +15 @ Michigan St.  LOSS

NC State +8 @ FSU  LOSS

Arkansas St. @ UL-Monroe +14.5  LOSS

Florida Int'l +10 @ Marshall  LOSS

So. Mississippi @ Rice +7.5  LOSS

Wyoming +23.5 @ San Diego St.  LOSS  (EDIT: Added at 12:47 PM CST on Sat 11/14/15.  Couldn't resist after seeing this line.  Must have missed it last night.)

DET +12 @ GB  WIN

CAR @ TEN +4.5  LOSS

KC +4.5 @ DEN  WIN

and I'm........... RIDING THE STORM OUT!

Week 6 picks didn't turn out like I would have hoped, but I think a lot of them were close.  There were a few others that I didn't put out there because I had too many already.  Check out my note sheet if you don't believe me!

Ga. St +18.5
No. Tex. +9.5
Minn +14
Temple +10
Wa. St. +12

The board was just primed for picking winners.  So many of the games had reverse line movement and a low percentage of bets on that side.  The results have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short synopsis of why I think the bet lost:

• Marshall @ Charlotte +17 LOSS 34 - 10 (Margin +24)  One TD away from push.  Charlotte had 1st and 10 at the Marshall 11 yard line with 2:30 to go.


• Troy +23.5 @ App. St. WIN 41 - 44 3OT (Margin +3)  One of the bright spots this week.  Troy takes App. St. to triple OT before losing after trying a fake FG.  Would have been nice for a huge dog to have a straight up winner, but alas it was not to be.


• Nebraska @ Purdue +7.5 WIN 45 - 55 (Margin -10)  The Huskers were starting the 2nd string QB and got behind early.  Purdue scored more points in this game than they had in all of 2015 B1G play (3 games).


• Illinois +4 @ Penn St. LOSS 0 - 39 (Margin +39)  I have no words.  This one hurts the point diff.


• C. Mich @ Akron +3 LOSS 14 - 6 (Margin +8)  One TD away.  Multiple chances.  This game did not have a score after 13:05 left in the 3rd quarter. Zzzzzzzzzz.


• Clemson @ NC St. +10.5 LOSS 56 - 41 (Margin +15)  NC St. had two possessions in the last 5 minutes.  One of those included a uncovered WR in the end zone that didn't get the ball thrown to him on 3rd down.


• Georgia +2 @ Florida LOSS 3 - 27 (Margin +24)  I don't even care.  This one was stinky so I was sure it was going to come in, because I hated it.


• Tulsa @ SMU +2.5 LOSS 40 - 31 (Margin +9)  Oh look, one TD away from cover.  Where have I seen that before.  Yes, the Mustangs had the ball in plus territory with time to score a meaningless TD with under a minute to go.


• Texas @ ISU +5.5 WIN 0 - 24 (Margin -24)  Outright winner.  Love those home dogs.  Maybe that should be my rule.  Home dogs with reverse line movement and low percentage public money.


• Vanderbilt +12 @ Houston LOSS 0 - 34 (Margin +34)  I don't even want to look at this box score.


• Tennessee-Martin +37 @ Arkansas WIN 28 - 63 (Margin +35)  Finally got a back-door cover.  Might be the first this season.  Game was a 3 TD game early 3rd quarter.  It turned to a 6 TD game in the blink of an eye.  Way to fight back T-Mart!  I love Skyhawk football.


• OK St. @ Tex. Tech +1.5 LOSS 70 - 53 (Margin +17)  In a game that featured 1,300+ yards of total offense, it did look promising for Tex Tech to win outright early in the game.  They jumped out to a 17-0 lead and were leading by 10 at half.  If they only wouldn't have given up 4 TDs of 59+ yards in the 2nd half, maybe they would have had it.  I'm not guaranteeing anything, though.


• Air Force @ Hawaii +6.5 LOSS 58 - 7 (Margin +51)  The Rainbow Warrior team must have spent all day surfing.  Only TD was a kickoff return (they got a lot of practice with those during this game).  Only managed 7 first downs.


• TB +8 @ ATL WIN 23 - 20 OT (Margin -3)  Outright winner!  Pleasantly surprised.  This one kind of stunk.  Line had actually gone to +7 on some books.  Took an ATL TD with 17 seconds left to get it to OT.


• ARI @ CLE +6 LOSS 34 - 20 (Margin +14)  Browns were leading by 10 at half.  Then they didn't score again.


• CIN @ PIT -1.5 LOSS 16 - 10 (Margin +6)  Steelers blew this game.  Lead the entire game until 3 minutes left.  Then choked some more.  PIT was right side so I'm not mad.


• MIN @ CHI -1 23 - 20 (Margin +3)  Glad this lost because it was my team that won AND it doesn't count to my record. 

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 5-11-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 27-29-2 (48.2%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (6 weeks) 20-25-1
NFL 2015 Record (6 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  17 of 58 (29%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +138.5  (+23.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +599  (+99.8/week vs +76.75/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Picks!  Nov 3 - Nov 9 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Virginia +6 @ Miami (FL)  PUSH

Charlotte +17 @ Florida Int'l  PUSH

Wisconsin @ Maryland +10.5  WIN

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Ga. St. +2.5  WIN

Iowa @ Indiana +6.5 (Added Sat 11/7/15 at 2:07 PM CST)  LOSS

Marshall @ Midd. Tenn St. -2.5 (Added Sat 11/7/15 at 2:07 PM CST)  WIN

UConn @ Tulane +5 (Added Sat 11/7/15 at 11:03 AM CST)  WIN

MSU @ Nebraska +6 (SVP convinced me that this is the dumbest line of the year, so it has to be right)  WIN

ISU +24.5 @ Oklahoma (EDIT right before kickoff this line jumped 1.5 to +25. Based on this I am losing confidence in this bet.  I should take it off the board but I will let it ride)  LOSS

NYG @ TB +2.5  LOSS

CHI +4 @ SD  WIN

Mr. Friday Night Special

Last week was a massacre.  That's okay because it's for entertainment purposes only!  Here are a couple Friday night specials!  I didn't have time to post winners last night because I was busy watching John Football.  I don't know how people can write him off when he's never had the starting job except as a replacement for injuries AND he's only started 4 games.  Grow up Peter Pan, Count Chocula.  Update with last week's results and this weeks WINNERS is coming later tonight.

Temple @ SMU +12.5  LOSS

Rice @ UTEP +6  WIN

UPDATE SAT 11/7/15 7:56 AM:  I can't even describe the ridiculousness that was the ending of the Temple/SMU game (but I am going to try).  After a back and forth see-saw matchup, Temple was holding a comfy 14 point advantage until SMU gets a safety from a holding penalty on a punt from the end zone.  Then SMU runs back the ensuing kick for a TD.  So it's a 5 point game and Temple runs 4 plays and punts.  SMU takes over with just over 5 to play.  If they score it's gravy, even if they turn it over or give up a TD it's fine because it will only be a 12 point game!  Count that money! Looks good right?  Right?  WRONG.  Okay SMU doesn't convert a 4th down with 2:40 left, no big deal.  Temple just needs one first down to salt this game away. Or kick a FG or punt, it really matters not at this point.  So on a 3rd and 14 with 1:56 left, they somehow run it in from 36 yards, even though they were just trying to run clock.  Good work SMU, but still no big deal, kick the PAT and then let SMU try to score and probably end the game. Wait, why the hell is Temple lining up for a two point covers......oh shit they just did that.  Now it's a 13 point game.  Why?  No earthly idea.  Maybe the Temple coach is bad at math.  There is no reason to make a game 13 points vs. 12 unless there is time left for the other team to have 3 possessions!  Well with 1:46 left, that is just impossible.  OK well now SMU needs a TD!  Still time to get one, but instead they throw a pick-6 with 0:55 left.  Temple coach decides that 20 points is enough and doesn't try to make it a 21 point game by going for two.  20 ought to do it, he thinks to himself.  Well, SMU isn't out of it yet, now 8 points could still cover and there is time left.  Well they didn't get it.  My that was a bad beat.