2016 Season Final Update

Well I ended in the black on NFL by one game.  If all of those games were wagered with the same odds and same values, that would still be a net loss.  Using the standard wager $110 to win $100, that would be a net loss of $50.  Flip one game (change record to 17-14-1) to make a lucrative profit of $160 on a $3,520 investment.  2016 picks were better by a whopping 2% from 2015.  Hurray.  No week 17 picks.

Last year (2015) looked like this:

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 47-52-4 (47.4%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (11 weeks) 32-39-3

NFL 2015 Record (12 weeks):  15-13-1

Here's what last week looked like:

• WAS @ CHI +3 LOSS 41 - 21 (Margin +20)  Nice work bears.


• TB @ NO -3  WIN 24 - 31 (Margin -7)  Go saints.


• ATL @ CAR +3 LOSS 33 - 16 (Margin +17)  Ouch.


• SD @ CLE +5 WIN 17 - 20 (Margin -3)  Never count out the dog pound.


• MIN @ GB -6.5 WIN 25 - 38 (Margin -13)  Fudge the pack.

Here is a breakdown of the 2016 season.

NFL Week 16 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 41-42-3 (49.4 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2 (48.1 %)

NFL 2016 Record (15 weeks):  16-15-1 (51.6 %)

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  25 of 72 (34.7 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.
NFL Week 14:      -3 with spread.  +15 straight up.
NFL Week 15:      +44 with spread.  +45 straight up.
NFL Week 16:      +12.5 with spread.  +14 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +123  (+7.23/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +571 (+33.6/week vs +26.4/week spread)

Packers Suck

WAS @ CHI +3 LOSS
TB @ NO -3  WIN
ATL @ CAR +3 LOSS
SD @ CLE +5 WIN
MIN @ GB -6.5 WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• PHI +5 @ BAL WIN 26 - 27 (Margin +1)  Go eagles.


• GB @ CHI +4.5 WIN 30 - 27 (Margin +3)  Go bears.


• IND @ MIN -5 LOSS 34 - 6 (Margin +29)  WTF.  One game ruins my weekly differential.


• JAX +3.5 @ HOU WIN 20 - 21 (Margin +1)  Go jags.


• CAR @ WAS -7 LOSS 26 - 15 (Margin +11)  Two games ruin the weekly diff I guess.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NFL Week 15 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 38-40-3 (48.7 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (15 weeks):  13-13-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  24 of 69 (34.8 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.
NFL Week 14:      -3 with spread.  +15 straight up.
NFL Week 15:      +44 with spread.  +45 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +110.5  (+6.91/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +557 (+34.8/week vs +27.9/week spread)

Forgot to post!

Quick picks...... all updates from last week will come.

PHI +5 @ BAL WIN
GB @ CHI +4.5 WIN
IND @ MIN -5 LOSS
JAX +3.5 @ HOU WIN
CAR @ WAS -7 LOSS

Here's what last week looked like:

• PIT @ BUF +2 LOSS 27 - 20 (Margin +7) Crap.


• CHI @ DET +9  WIN 17 - 20 (Margin -3) Highlight of the week.


• WAS @ PHI +1 LOSS 27 - 22 (Margin +5)  Crap.


• MIN @ JAX +3 LOSS 25 - 16 (Margin +9)  Vikings in a tail spin still beat the Jags.


• DAL @ NYG +3 WIN 7 - 10 (Margin -3)  Cool.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NFL Week 14 Record: 2-3-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 35-38-3 (47.9 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (14 weeks):  10-11-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  24 of 66 (36.4 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.
NFL Week 14:      -3 with spread.  +15 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +66.5  (+4.43/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +512 (+34.1/week vs +29.67/week spread)

These Bets Stink

Not much to say about last week, I could flip a coin and do better probably.  I have no vision, no clarity.  I'm grasping at straws.  Got some real dog baby games this week.  I'm sure it will work out well.  Five home dogs.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 6 - Dec 12 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

PIT @ BUF +2  LOSS

CHI @ DET +9  WIN

WAS @ PHI +1  LOSS

MIN @ JAX +3  LOSS

DAL @ NYG +3  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• DEN @ JAX +3.5 LOSS 20 - 10 (Margin +10)  Denver defense continues to dominate.  The Jags had 3 or 4 possessions in the 4th quarter to make this a winner and still failed.


• DET @ NO -6 LOSS 28 - 13 (Margin +15)  Drew Brees threw the ball to the other team too many times to overcome.


• BUF +3 @ OAK LOSS 24 - 38 (Margin +14)  Up 15 points in the middle of the third quarter, the Bills forgot to play defense for the remainder of the game and gave up 29 unanswered points.  If you can figure out how that is possible, please explain it to me.


• TB @ SD -3.5 LOSS 28 - 21 (Margin +7)  Leading by 4 in the 4th quarter, the Chargers failed to score another point and lost.  Great plan.


• WAS @ ARI -1 WIN 23 - 31 (Margin -8)  Leading by 1 late in the game, the Cardinals iced it with a long TD pass to avoid an 0-5 week.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 1-4-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 33-35-3 (48.5 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (13 weeks):  8-8-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  22 of 61 (36.1 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +69.5  (+4.96/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +497 (+35.5/week vs +30.54/week spread)

Time For Some NFL

Remember last week when I said, "Well it all comes down to this.  Can we finish in the black?"  I'm not sure what I was thinking.  There are plenty of weeks of football left and although I won't likely pick winners from college bowl games, I will give out NFL picks.  Also, someone once told me after losing a bet on a conference championship game, "That's why you don't bet on conference championship games."  Even though that was about basketball, I might stay away from the football games too.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Nov 29 - Dec 5 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

DEN @ JAX +3.5  LOSS

DET @ NO -6  LOSS

BUF +3 @ OAK  LOSS

TB @ SD -3.5  LOSS

WAS @ ARI -1  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Ball St. +7.5 @ Miami (Oh.) WIN 20 - 21 (Margin +1)  In tribute to the "Boom goes the dynamite" kid, the Cardinals nearly pull off a win.


• Arkansas @ Missouri +7.5 WIN 24 - 28 (Margin -4)  Missouri is terrible and they win outright coming from behind, down 17 at half.


• West Virginia @ Iowa St. +8 LOSS 49 - 19 (Margin +30)  After keeping it close in the first half, the Cyclones turned it over a few times in the second half and somehow gave up 341 passing yards on 13 completions.  For you non-math majors out there, that's about 26 yards per completion.


• Navy @ SMU +7 LOSS 75 - 31 (Margin +44)  Navy scored 75 points.  Again, this game was close at half and then Navy exploded.  Two huge momentum plays to start the second half and SMU threw in the towel, I guess?  A 50 yard rush TD and a pick-6 in the first 1:49 of the half.


• Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +7.5 WIN 34 - 45 (Margin -11)  Who knew that Vandy could score that many?

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 32-31-3 (50.8 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (13 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (12 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  22 of 59 (37.3 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +27.5  (+2.11/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +459 (+35.3/week vs +33.2/week spread)