College Football Hates Me

I realize that I didn't give a proper intro to this season for the first time readers (all 2 of you), but here we go anyway.  I make picks purely based on betting trends.  Almost zero personal knowledge is used.  I don't have the information that the odds makers do, nor do I have the information that the "sharps" have.  If you understand sports gambling, you know that people offering the bets (we'll just call them Vegas), makes money no matter the outcome if they keep the amount wagered from both sides close to even.  They manipulate the spread to encourage betting on one side or another in order to keep it even.  On occasion, the spread is seen by some to be too low or high and big money comes in on the advantaged side.  This money is generally from professional handicappers, of which are known to Vegas and will cause the spread to move dramatically or hold on the same number despite the total number of bets being skewed to one side (typically the favorite) by a large margin (70-30% at least).  In those cases, it is thought by me and the opinion of some others that the "smart" money is on the 30% side which is usually the underdog.   Each week I look for instances like this and make picks based on that information, trying to always be on the "smart" money side - because hey, they did the research for me.  I'm just trying to cash in on their hard work.  So, as far as you can tell from my first three years, it's worked just about 50% of the time, which is enough to lose money.  Anyway, this generally leads to fading the public and betting on really ugly lines - games where Joey Bagodonuts thinks it's a sure win.  Well here's the thing about that - Vegas isn't in the business of losing money, so why on earth would they set spreads where every dope in America is going to say, "Man! The Pats are only laying 7 versus the Lions?  I'll put the mortgage on that! Tommy Brady is going to smoke them by 30!"  The answer is clearly because they know that if they put it any higher, the "smart" money is going to come in HARD and FAST which could actually put them at risk.  That's why.  Generally, they set spreads higher then what they may believe, because the public loves favorites, and Vegas loves taking dumb people's money.  Don't get me wrong, you can still win betting favorites, plenty of those bets are winners every week, but as I said before, I don't have the information to put me in a position to actually handicap games myself, so I use trend stats that show me (hopefully) which side has the smart money.  That of course doesn't mean a guaranteed win either, but it is winning better than I could do on my own (in my opinion) and evidenced by this blog experiment.  

Anyway, on to last week's winners that weren't winners since I didn't make them official.  W. Kentucky, SMU, and Purdue were all winners last week, but I didn't put them on the board.  What an idiot.  Tough break, there's always Fubu.  Good thing the NFL was perfect 5-0.  As seen by the bank below, we're up $350 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($3,960) + $4,200 + $110 = $350.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Clemson @ Ga. Tech +16 LOSS 49 - 21 (Margin +28) No comment.

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +7 LOSS 56 - 27 (Margin +29)  No comment.

Western Michigan @ Ga. State +7.5 LOSS 34 - 15 (Margin +19)  No comment.

North Texas @ Liberty +14 LOSS 47 - 7 (Margin +40)  WTF happened here?

Georgia @ Missouri +14.5 WIN 43 - 29 (Margin +14) My goodness I can't believe this was a winner.

BUF +16.5 @ MIN WIN 27 - 6 (Margin -21)  NFL is a weird sport sometimes.

TEN +9.5 @ JAX WIN 9 - 6 (Margin -3)  NFL is a weird sport sometimes (again).

GB @ WAS +2.5 WIN 17 - 31 (Margin -14)  This one wasn't really a shocker.

NE @ DET +7 WIN 10 - 26 (Margin -16)  Patriots suck in September every year it seems like - just toying with the rest of the league.  Trying out different personnel, different packages, what not - they don't care about winning until October.

CHI @ ARI +6 WIN 16 - 14 (Margin +2)  Should have been another outright win, but the new coach thought it a good idea to put in a rookie with about 3-4 minutes left being down 2 points.  Good time for baptism by fire?  If you want to lose for sure, that's a good move.  Kid almost cost us the winner by throwing a pick-6 on the last play of the game, but luckily there was a defensive penalty called.

Here are 10 picks you're guaranteed to hate!  Well don't doubt them until you've faded all of them (if you dare).  I'd fade the NCAAF picks because you can't trust those damn kids to do anything.  Whatever, I'll still keep it up.  Some that didn't make the card because they were favorites or I just didn't pick them but still looked good were Buffalo, Ball State, Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, Toledo, and Clemson.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 picks!  Sep 25 - Oct 1 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Pittsburgh +13.5 @ Central Florida

Massachusetts +13.5 @ Ohio

Oklahoma State @ Kansas +17

BYU @ Washington -17

Ohio State @ Penn State +3.5

CIN +5 @ ATL

NYJ +7.5 @ JAX

PHI @ TEN +4

HOU +1 @ IND

KC @ DEN +5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Record: 6-4-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 20-15-1 (57.14 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (4 weeks) 8-11-1 (42.11 %) VERSUS SVP 12-16-0 (40.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (3 weeks):  12-4-0 (75.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  10 of 31 (32.26 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -53.5  (-13.38/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +196.0 (+49.00/week vs +62.38/week spread)

Welcome to Conference Play (For Some?)

Am I the only one that misses the old days when the first three games were always non-conference and week 4 on were conference games?  Maybe that isn't how it used to be, but that's how I remember it, which is all that matters.  Anyway, I digress; not a bad week 3, but could have been better!  There was a 5-0 college week in there had I just mixed and matched a bit better. Purdue, SDSU, and North Texas were all winners.  Oh well, after being 60% for 2 straight weeks we were one game off.  Unfortunately, that one game is the difference between a winning week and a losing week.  Point differential versus spread has been good each week - beating it overall on average.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($2,860) + $2,940 + $110 = $190.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Ball State @ Indiana -15 WIN 10 - 38 (Margin -28) Notre Dame couldn't cover versus the Cardinals, but the Hoosiers had no problem.

Miami @ Toledo +12 LOSS 49 - 24 (Margin +25)  Not really sure what happened at the Glass Bowl, but evidently the Rockets didn't show up.

Hawai'i @ Army -6.5 WIN 21 - 28 (Margin -7)  Black Knights prevail by the slimmest of margins.

New Mexico @ New Mexico State +4 LOSS 42 - 24 (Margin +18)  This one was close and got out of hand quickly.  Four point game at the half.  I had this as likely being an outright win.

Eastern Michigan +3.5 @ Buffalo LOSS 28 - 35 (Margin +7)  In a game that featured nearly 500 yards of offense for EACH team, E. Mich. lost by 7 and not by 3. Damn.

LAC @ BUF +7 LOSS 31 - 20 (Margin +11)  Oh my for being so bad and starting a rookie QB, they nearly pulled off the back door cover.

MIN @ GB +7 WIN 29 - 29 (Margin +0)  For the second week in a row, the NFL had a tie (and we cashed a winner).

PHI @ TB +3.5 WIN 21 - 27 (Margin -6)  The Bucs are outright winners for the second week in a row.

NE @ JAX +1 WIN 20 - 31 (Margin -11)  Rematch of the AFC title game and we have a different result.

KC @ PIT -4 LOSS 42 - 37 (Margin +5)  Well, I can't say that the offense is the problem.....

Well here we go, a few that didn't make the board include W. Kentucky, Nevada, SMU, and Purdue (again).  SMU is out because I took them earlier and they got beat, even though it was only a one score game (against the number).

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 picks!  Sep 18 - Sep 24 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Clemson @ Ga. Tech +16

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +7

Western Michigan @ Ga. State +7.5

North Texas @ Liberty +14

Georgia @ Missouri +14.5

BUF +16.5 @ MIN

TEN +9.5 @ JAX

GB @ WAS +2.5

NE @ DET +7

CHI @ ARI +6

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 5-5-0 (50.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 14-11-1 (56.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (3 weeks) 7-7-1 (50.00 %) VERSUS SVP 8-12-0 (40.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (2 weeks):  7-4-0 (63.64 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  6 of 21 (28.6 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +1.5 with spread.  +14.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -31.0  (-10.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +118.0 (+39.33/week vs +49.67/week spread)

A Duck Pulled a Truck!

Continue rolling in week 2, adding the NFL to the mix.  Time to get pistol hot!  Kentucky (duck - last year this was Tennessee) ended a run of 31 or 32 straight losses to Florida (truck) and I didn't have that as one of my winners?!  Wonder what the trends were saying, I don't recall that game drawing my interest.  The Vols got beat on the last play of the game last year, so a duck pulled a truck for about 59 minutes and 55 seconds.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($1,760) + $1,890 + $110 = $240.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

TCU @ SMU +23.5 LOSS 42 - 12 (Margin +30)  After opening up a 9-0 lead with 5 minutes to play in the 1st quarter, SMU had the entire 2nd half to score one more TD and couldn't do it.  Silly.

Mississippi State @ Kansas State +7.5 LOSS 31 - 10 (Margin +21)  That's not the Bill Snyder team I know.

Duke +3 @ Northwestern WIN 21 - 7 (Margin -14)  Winning on the field (not just in the spread).

Kansas +5 @ Central Michigan WIN 31 - 7 (Margin -24)  Who would have thought I'd have two Kansas schools in my picks this week and KU is the one to be a winner (ON THE FIELD!).

Utah @ Northern Illinois +11 PUSH 17 - 6 (Margin +11)  Bad beat central. Featured on SVP. Down 10-6 late, NIU throws a pick-6. In the end, a push is a win.

PIT @ CLE +3.5 WIN 21 - 21 (OT) (Margin +0)  Browns had this game for the taking, multiple times late and in OT.

SF @ MIN -6.5 WIN 16 - 24 (Margin -8)  Not a fantastic performance but a win is a win is a win.

TB +9.5 @ NO WIN 48 - 40 (Margin -8)  ON THE FIELD!

CIN @ IND -3 LOSS 34 - 23 (Margin +11)  Indy was winning this game for most of it, so it looked like I might get lucky.  Then the Bengals outscored the Colts 17-0 in the 4th quarter.

TEN @ MIA +1.5 WIN 20 - 27 (Margin -7)  Four hours of weather delays.  Ugly.

LAR @ OAK +4 LOSS 33 - 13 (Margin +20)  Winning at half, blown out for the game.  Come on Chuckie, figure it out.

On to this week; surprisingly there were a lot of favorites I wanted this week. Ended up with a couple actually making the board.  Here are a few I wrote down but didn't go with: FSU, Purdue, SDSU, Ohio, and Auburn.  The other line that stinks to high heaven is North Texas is only catching 6.5 or 7 points from Arkansas.  Someone remind me, but Arkansas is still in the SEC, correct?

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 picks!  Sep 11 - Sep 17 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ball State @ Indiana -15

Miami @ Toledo +12

Hawai'i @ Army -6.5

New Mexico @ New Mexico State +4

Eastern Michigan +3.5 @ Buffalo

LAC @ BUF +7

MIN @ GB +7

PHI @ TB +3.5

NE @ JAX +1

KC @ PIT -4

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 6-4-1 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 9-6-1 (60.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (2 weeks) 5-4-1 (55.56 %) VERSUS SVP 3-9-0 (25.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (1 week):  4-2-0 (66.67 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  4 of 14 (28.6 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -32.5  (-16.25/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +104.0 (+52.00/week vs +68.25/week spread)

Not the Official Blog of Nike

Week 1 is always scary - especially in college ball.  Big spreads, little knowledge about roster turnover, David vs. Goliath type match ups.  Even so, I'll take 60% every week! Giddyup.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($550) + $630 + $0 = $80.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

App. St. +24 @ Penn St. WIN 38 - 45 OT (Margin +7)  Wowsers, I didn't watch this but I bet it was exciting.  After just seeing if it was exciting, I would have considered turning it off at half since it was a punt fest, but would have continued watching because it was tied 10-10 and still had major upset potential.  App. St. had a 56 yard FG try for the win (15 seconds left), but missed.  Then they threw a pick in OT on 1st down after converting a 4th and 1.

Kent St. +16.5 @ Illinois WIN 24 - 31 (Margin +7)  Nice work by the Golden Flashes.

Texas St. +16.5 @ Rutgers LOSS 7 - 35 (Margin +28)  That sucks.

La. Tech @ So. Alabama +10.5 WIN 30 - 26 (Margin +4)  Jags couldn't pull off the home opener.  Shucks.

West Virginia @ Tennessee +10 (n) LOSS 40 - 14 (Margin +26)  Guess they should have been getting more points?

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 picks!  Sep 4 - Sep 10 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

TCU @ SMU +23.5

Mississippi State @ Kansas State +7.5

Duke +3 @ Northwestern

Kansas +5 @ Central Michigan

Utah @ Northern Illinois +11

PIT @ CLE +3.5

SF @ MIN -6.5

TB +9.5 @ NO

CIN @ IND -3 (11:55 AM edit TEN @ MIA +1.5) Bengals had huge line movement within the last 12 hours and are now favored.... So I will keep my original but add Miami.

LAR @ OAK +4

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (1 weeks) 3-2-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 2-3-0 (40.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0 (0.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  0 of 5 (0.0 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -5.5  (-5.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +72.0 (+72.00/week vs +77.50/week spread)