The Titles of My Posts Are Part of A Mike Singletary Speech

Week 5 picks were good.  I don't want to win 'em all, just 54%.  The results have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including excuses why some bets lost (that's the best part, explaining away why you were on the RIGHT side):

• Memphis @ Tulsa +10.5 LOSS 66 - 42 (Margin +24) Over 1,200 yards of total offense in this game.  It was a 7 point game early in the 3rd, but Memphis couldn't be stopped.


• Penn St. @ Maryland +6.5 WIN 31 - 30 (Margin +1) In a game with 8 total turnovers, 5 by Maryland, I don't know what happened.  Didn't watch until the end when Maryland had a couple chances to win outright, but still managed to lose.  Whatever, a win is a win.


• Mid. Tenn St. +7.5 @ La. Tech LOSS 16 - 45 (Margin +29) Nothing to see here, move along.


• Missouri @ Vanderbilt +3 WIN 3 - 10 (Margin -7) This line stunk to high heaven.  Produces outright winner.  ANCHOR DOWN!


• HOU +5 @ MIA LOSS 26 - 44 (Margin +18) Ha ha jokes on you!  I started Tannehill on my fake football team.  Yikes, I guess that new coach is better than the old coach.  Houston is also really bad. 


• OAK +4 @ SD WIN 37 - 29 (Margin -8) This game was hard to watch if you were a Chargers fan.  It was great garbage time for Phil Rivers (Yes, he is my QB on my OTHER fake football team and yes, I know you don't care).


• NO +4 @ IND WIN 27 - 21 (Margin -6)  I felt pretty good counting my (hypothetical) money when it was 27 - 0.  I bet other fake football team managers felt good with Andy Luck's stats during garbage time.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record:  4-3-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record:  22-18-2 (55.0%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (5 weeks) 16-16-1
NFL 2015 Record (5 weeks):  6-2-1

Since my picks will almost never be favorites, I'll track the outright wins of the underdogs in my picks.

Overall 2015 Football Underdog Outright Wins:  14 of 42 (33%)

Something else I'm going to track from now on will be like keeping a total score, but it will show the margin of all my picks.  This point margin will essentially show the value of my picks.  A point margin that is either close to zero OR negative shows good value i.e., the teams I am picking are outscoring their opponents (with and without the spread being factored in).  Example:  NO was getting 4 and also won the game outright by 6.  Margin = -10 with spread and -6 without spread.

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5;  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +41.5  (+8.3/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +357  (+71.4/week vs +63.1/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Picks!  Oct 27 - Nov 2 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

I want to start by saying I wish there wasn't Thursday night football, because I had a couple I liked that are underway now.  They aren't over, but it was Miami (OH), E. Mich, and WVU all taking the points.  Let's see how they finish even though they won't be official picks, because I didn't beat kickoff.  (EDIT Friday 7:57 AM CDT These picks went 1-2, so I guess I lucked out.)

Marshall @ Charlotte +17  LOSS

Troy +23.5 @ App. St.  WIN

Nebraska @ Purdue +7.5  WIN

Illinois +4 @ Penn St.  LOSS

C. Mich @ Akron +3  LOSS

Clemson @ NC St. +10.5  LOSS

Georgia +2 @ Florida  LOSS

Tulsa @ SMU +2.5  LOSS

Texas @ ISU +5.5  WIN

Vanderbilt +12 @ Houston  LOSS

Tennessee-Martin (who?) +37  @ Arkansas  WIN

OK St. @ Tex. Tech +1.5  LOSS

Air Force @ Hawaii +6.5  LOSS (EDIT Last three NCAAF picks added at 9:34 CDT on Sat 10/31/15)

TB +8 @ ATL  WIN

ARI @ CLE +6  LOSS

CIN @ PIT -1.5  LOSS (a favorite? I'm going to regret this, I can tell.  UPDATE Friday 11:20 CDT:  This line is back to a pick 'em.  I'll stick with my original choice for now.  I'll be monitoring the line tomorrow.

MIN @ CHI -1  This should be a pick based on my system, but I want the system to be wrong this time.  I am showing it, but I am not taking credit if it wins.  The public loves the Vikes (71% bets on MIN), yet the line has gone from MIN -3 to its current position.  This stinks to high heaven.  UPDATE Friday 11:20 CDT: this line has gone back and forth more than I've ever seen. Vikes are back to being favored again today.  I still think whatever line CHI gets is the RIGHT side so I wouldn't mind taking CHI +1, but I can't touch this game now.

Can't Win With 'Em, Can't Coach With 'Em. Can't Do It!

Still hanging in there in my fourth week of action.  The results have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary:

• Marshall @ FAU +5.5  LOSS 33 - 17 (Margin +16) Oh well.  Can't win 'em all.


• Ga. State +13.5 @ Ball State  WIN 31 - 19 (Margin -12) Classic example of the system at work.  Reverse line movement, despite a large majority of the public bets being placed on Ball State.  I knew nothing about the two teams involved, but just based on the numbers, it came out a winner.


• Nevada @ Wyoming +6.5  WIN 21 - 28 (Margin -7) Win-less Wyoming is gonna cover against a 3-3 Nevada team?  Who needs records or stats?  I certainly didn't look at either.  Another classic example of the system.  System has two outright winners this week (hopefully not just luck - we'll keep track of those from now on).


• Vanderbilt +2.5 @ South Carolina  LOSS 10 - 19 (Margin +9)  No more Spurrier.  Vandy manages to keep it a 9 point game and only give up 1 TD despite a -3 turnover margin.


• BC +15.5 @ Clemson  LOSS 17 - 34 (Margin +17) Anemic BC offense.  I hate Clemson. Someone beat them and prove me right.  Trap game. At Miami this week. Book it.


• TCU @ ISU +20.5  LOSS 45 - 21 (Margin +24)  Looking pretty good after holding a 7 point 1st quarter lead.  All the Cyclones needed to do was put up any kind of points for the remaining 3 quarters.  Went for it on 4th whilst in FG range twice in 4th quarter.


• DEN @ CLE +4 WIN 26 - 23 OT (Margin +3)  Denver continues to live on the edge.  A long defensive TD and 75 yard passing TD kept Cleveland from winning outright.  OT was horrible and had "bad beat" written all over it.  Luckily Denver continued the trend of being bad on offense.

NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Record:  3-4-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record:  18-15-2 (54.54%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (4 weeks) 14-14-1
NFL 2015 Record (4 weeks):  4-1-1

Since my picks will almost never be favorites, I'll track the outright wins of the underdogs in my picks.

Overall 2015 Football Underdog Outright Wins:  11 of 35

Here are your NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Picks!  Oct 20 - Oct 26 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Memphis @ Tulsa +10.5  LOSS

Penn St. @ Maryland +6.5  WIN

Mid. Tenn St. +7.5 @ La. Tech  LOSS

Missouri @ Vanderbilt +3 (Edit: added @ 11:23 AM CDT on Friday 10/23/15)  WIN

HOU +5 @ MIA  LOSS

OAK +4 @ SD  WIN

NO +4 @ IND  WIN

Damn, That's Your Money Man

Week 3 there was a bit of a regression, but it wasn't terrible.  I may have gone overboard on a couple games.  I'll see if I can't rein that in this week. Week 3 results have been updated here.  Also, here is a brief summary:

• Akron @ E. Mich +7.5  LOSS 47 - 21 (Margin +26) Let's just try and forget about this MACtion.


• Kent St. +14.5 @ Toledo  LOSS 7 - 38 (Margin +31) Let's just try and forget about this MACtion.


• Ga. Tech +7.5 @ Clemson  LOSS 24 - 43 (Margin +19) I refuse to accept that Clemson is good.


• Georgia @ Tennessee +3  WIN 31 - 38 (Margin -7)  Georgia lost Chubb, but his replacement fared just fine.  Home team rallied in 2nd half to win.


• Syracuse +2 @ So. Florida  LOSS 24 - 45 (Margin +21)  USF statement game?  How did this happen?


• Wisconsin +1.5 @ Nebraska  WIN EDIT @ 10:49 AM CDT 10/10/15. Reverse line movement has told me that this pick might be bad. I would change it to Nebraska +2.5.  WIN  23 - 21 (Margins -2 and +2)  This one was a winner for both picks (even if Wisconsin missed their last second FG).  It's the impossible dream to bet both sides and win both, so I'm counting it.


• Northwestern +7.5 @ Michigan  LOSS 0 - 38 (Margin +38)  Hmm. Does this mean Minnesota will lose to Michigan by 65?


• TCU @ Kansas St. +10.5  WIN 52 - 45 (Margin +7)  Crazy game that KSU probably should have won outright (two weeks in a row).


• CHI +10 @ KC  WIN 18 - 17 (Margin -1)  Winning outright was a pleasant surprise, here.


• BUF @ TEN +1  PUSH 14 - 13 (Margin +1)  This line was larger earlier in the week, would have been a winner.  TEN should have won outright.  Push is a win!


• ARI @ DET +2.5 LOSS 42 - 17 (Margin +25)  Well what do you expect when you turn it over 6 times?

NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Record:  5-6-1

Overall 2015 Football Season Record:  15-11-2 (57.69%)

Without further ado, here are your NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Picks!  Oct 13 - Oct 19 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Marshall @ FAU +5.5  LOSS

Ga. State +13.5 @ Ball State  WIN

Nevada @ Wyoming +6.5  WIN

Vanderbilt +2.5 @ South Carolina  LOSS

BC +15.5 @ Clemson  LOSS

TCU @ ISU +20.5  LOSS

DEN @ CLE +4  WIN

I WANT PEOPLE THAT WANNA WIN!

Continued with a good second week, which has been updated with results here.  Also here is a brief summary:

• WVU +7 @ OU - LOSS 24 - 44 (Margin +20) Was a 7 point game with just over a quarter to play. Then it all fell apart.


• Alabama +1.0 @ Georgia - WIN 38 - 10 (Margin -28) Whoopin' from start to finish.


• Texas Tech +17 @ Baylor - LOSS 35 - 63 (Margin +28) Baylor's offense is stupid along with Big 12 defenses.


• Nebraska @ Illinois +7 - WIN 13 - 14 (Margin -1) Despite getting shorted a down, this one was over early second half when Nebraska forgot how to make points.


• Kansas St. +7.5 @ Oklahoma St. - WIN 34 - 36 (Margin +2) Failed 2PT and late field goal kept this one out of KSU's grasp.


• Ole Miss @ Florida +7.5 - WIN 10 - 38 (Margin -28) Whoopin' from start to finish.


• Vanderbilt +3 @ Midd. Tenn St. - WIN 17 - 13 (Margin -4) SEC vs. Conf. USA? SEC better win that game.  I don't care if it's Vanderbilt.


• Notre Dame +2 @ Clemson - PUSH 22 - 24 (Margin +2) If the Catholics would have kicked the PATs instead of chasing 2PT conversions when only down 12 with an entire quarter to play, they might still be playing this game.  Glad they didn't because OT might have cost me. Push is a win! Or maybe they shouldn't have turned it over 4 times. Yeah, maybe that.


• Arizona +13.5 @ Stanford - LOSS 17 - 55 (Margin +38) Yikes!  I forgot Anu Solomon was out. Probably not the best move.


• MIN +7 @ DEN - WIN 20 - 23 (Margin +3) Denver is more overrated than normal this season, but that defense is good.

NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Record:  6-3-1

Overall 2015 Football Season Record:  10-5-1

Without further ado, here are your NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Picks!  Oct 6 - Oct 12 WINNERS!

Akron @ E. Mich +7.5  LOSS

Kent St. +14.5 @ Toledo  LOSS

Ga. Tech +7.5 @ Clemson  LOSS

Georgia @ Tennessee +3  WIN

Syracuse +2 @ So. Florida  LOSS

Wisconsin +1.5 @ Nebraska  WIN EDIT @ 10:49 AM CDT 10/10/15. Reverse line movement has told me that this pick might be bad. I would change it to Nebraska +2.5.  WIN

Northwestern +7.5 @ Michigan  LOSS

TCU @ Kansas St. +10.5  WIN

CHI +10 @ KC  WIN

BUF @ TEN +1  PUSH

ARI @ DET +2.5 (this one really stinks)  LOSS

Winner$ Experiment Week 2

Started off with a good first week, which has been updated with results here.  Also here is a brief summary:

• Maryland +17 @ WVU - LOSS: 6 - 45 (Margin +39) My tribute to SVP did NOT pay off. Terps suck.


• Midd. Tenn St. +4 @ Illinois - WIN: 25 - 27 (Margin +2) Failed 2PT and late 51 yard field goal kept Blue Raiders from an outright win.


• Miss. State +2.5 @ Auburn - WIN: 17 - 9 (Margin -8)  Was a bit afraid of this because I thought the Bulldogs should have been favored. Must have been a home game thing. Auburn is terrible.


• Ohio +10.5 @ Minnesota - WIN: 24 - 27 (Margin +3)  This was just hometown knowledge.  Almost like stealing.


• UMass +29.5 @ Notre Dame - LOSS: 27 - 62 (Margin +35)  One garbage time TD away from backdoor cover.


• PHI +1 @ NYJ - WIN:  24 - 17 (Margin -7) Thought the 2-0 Jets (who looked good) playing the 0-2 Eagles (who looked like garbage) should have been favored by more than 1 at home. Stinky line. Jump on the dog.

NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Record:  4-2-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record:  4-2-0

NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Picks!  Sep. 29 - Oct 5

WVU +7 @ OU  LOSS

Alabama +1.0 @ Georgia  WIN

Texas Tech +17 @ Baylor  LOSS

Nebraska @ Illinois +7  WIN

Kansas St. +7.5 @ Oklahoma St.  WIN

Ole Miss @ Florida +7.5  WIN

Vanderbilt +3 @ Midd. Tenn St.  WIN

Notre Dame +2 @ Clemson  PUSH

Arizona +13.5 @ Stanford  WIN

MIN +7 @ DEN  WIN