Can A Duck Pull A Truck?

Well it was bound to happen.  Got crushed last week.  Couldn't go 89% all year.  Maybe in NFL.  I should have left my bonus pick on there (HINT: It was a winner in the NFL).  I wanted to stick to 5 games per week and I wanted to avoid being a homer by betting on my own team.  The numbers were ripe though and it came through.  As were ATL and CLE (also winners).  Damnit.

I really want to pull the trigger on the Bulls of USF catching 5 against Free Shoes U, because that just doesn't make sense to me.  How on earth are the 'Noles not giving more than a TD to the lowly AAC team?  Sure the Bulls have scored nearly 50 a game in their first three contests, but against Towson, Northern Illinois, and Syracuse?  Hard to measure the worth of those points.  FSU is supposed to one of the best teams in the country, sure they got trounced by Lamar Jackson, but I have a feeling that trend is going to continue in that conference (maybe in any conference, that kid is doing serious things - all the kid does is make touchdowns).  FSU beat a team that has seemed to give Alabama trouble in the last few years, and that is something to think about.  Every dope in America is going to have FSU, so that's why I would say, Vegas must know something we don't.  If they didn't, it would seem that they like to lose money, and we all know that just isn't the case (except for 3 of my winners last week.......).  I'm guessing some oddsmakers may have been fired over the Oklahoma line last week.  Maybe the UTEP one also.  If I had to switch one, I'd take off the Buffalo/Army game (because the damn Black Knights killed me last week) and ride those Bulls at +5.  Hopefully they can stay on for 60 minutes rather than just 8 seconds.  The same logic applies to the Stanford/UCLA game also, but I'm taking that one anyway (because it stinks).  Almost guaranteed to be one of SVPs winners tonight.  Probably USF also.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Picks!  Sep 22 - Sep 26 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Army @ Buffalo +14  WIN

Florida +4.5 @ Tennessee  LOSS

Stanford @ UCLA +3  LOSS

ARI @ BUF +4  WIN

PIT @ PHI +3.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Miami (FL) @ App. State +4 LOSS 45 - 10 (Margin +35) This line stunk..... can't imagine why Vegas would elect to lose money on this game.


• Army @ UTEP +4 LOSS 66 - 14 (Margin +52) WHAT?!  Vegas clearly underestimates the Black Knights. Don't worry I'm going against them again in week 4.  Glutton for punishment.


• Ohio St. @ Oklahoma +1 LOSS 45 - 24 (Margin +21)  Another stinker.  Vegas really likes losing money this week.  The whole world was on Ohio St.  So unless it was going to actually be close, why set the line so low?  Unless of course you want to lose money.


• Navy @ Tulane +5.5 LOSS 21 - 14 (Margin +7)  Finally a close game.  Navy goes for two after last TD.  Would have been a sweet victory had they failed.


• Georgia @ Missouri +6.5 WIN 28 - 27 (Margin +1)  Tigers gave up the go ahead score with 1:30 left in the game.  WINNERS!

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 1-4-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 9-5-1 (64.3 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (3 weeks) 8-5-1

NFL 2016 Record (2 weeks):  1-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 15 (20 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +57  (+19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +190 (+63.3/week vs +44.3/week spread)

Fade Material

SVP had a rough week in WINNERS last week, but we didn't!  Kept up the amazing start to 2016.  Kind of makes me want to put down real money.  Hold on there, tiger. Let's try to rein in the cockiness before we get bit.  Keep your eye on the prize.  Close some tail. Should have been 5-0 last week. Thanks a lot UConn.  Question: If you were the coach of UConn and had zero time outs with 12 seconds remaining and were down 4 points with the ball on the 1 yard line, would you:

A) Call a running play
B) Call a passing play
C) Take a knee
D) Combination of A and C

If you chose A, C, or D, then you must have the same number of working brain cells as the UConn coach. Congratulations.  Sure if the running play works out, you'd never question the call. But seriously, you have to know that is the only play that you have time to run.  Goal line runs get stacked up and take lots of time to sort out.  So if you don't get in the endzone, you aren't running another play because half of your line will still be under a pile of people 15 seconds after the whistle blows.  It's not like it was 4th down either. It was 2nd down. Could have gotten off 3 more plays.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Picks!  Sep 16 - Sep 19 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Miami (FL) @ App. State +4 LOSS

Army @ UTEP +4  LOSS

Ohio St. @ Oklahoma +1 LOSS

Navy @ Tulane +5.5  LOSS

Georgia @ Missouri +6.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Connecticut +4 @ Navy PUSH 24 - 28 (Margin +4) Nice call on last play of the game....


• Central Mich. +21 @ Oklahoma St. WIN 30 - 27 (Margin -3)  Expected the cover, but not the outright win.  Choke job by the Cowboys!


• North Dakota +21.5 @ Bowling Green WIN 26 - 27 (Margin +1)  Sioux go for two and the win......... but come up short.


• Virginia +24 @ Oregon WIN 26 - 44 (Margin +18)  Oregon scored a late meaningless TD that would have lost this bet had the play not been negated for a holding call.


• GB @ JAX +5 WIN 27 - 23 (Margin +4)  Nearly had another outright win.  Game winning TD was dropped in the endzone!  I hate the Packers.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 4-0-1

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 8-1-1 (88.9 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (2 weeks) 7-1-1

NFL 2016 Record (1 weeks):  1-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 10 (30 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up

Total point margin including spread:  -38  (-19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +74 (+37/week vs +56/week spread)

Bang Biscuit!

Great start to the 2016 season.  Actually a lot of good football games in week 1.  Not so much in week 2 but it does bring back the National Football League.  The board doesn't look all that good this week.  Let's see what I can scratch out.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Picks!  Sep 9 - Sep 12 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Connecticut +4 @ Navy PUSH

Central Mich. +21 @ Oklahoma St. WIN

North Dakota +21.5 @ Bowling Green WIN

Virginia +24 @ Oregon WIN

GB @ JAX +5 WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Kansas State +15.5 @ Stanford WIN 13 - 26 (Margin +13)  Old Bill Snyder.


• Western Mich +5 @ Northwestern WIN 22 - 21 (Margin -1)  As SVP said "ROW THE FREAKIN' BOAT!"


• San Jose St +5 @ Tulsa LOSS 10 - 45 (Margin +35)  What was going on in this game?  Not even going to try and dissect it.


• Clemson @ Auburn +7.5 WIN 19 - 13 (Margin +6)  Auburn should have won this game.


• Notre Dame @ Texas +3.5 WIN 47 - 50 (Margin -3)  Never should have made it to OT!  Cripes.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1 Record: 4-1-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 4-1-0 (80 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (1 weeks) 4-1-0

NFL 2016 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  2 of 5 (40 %)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +13.5  (+13.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +50  (+50/week vs +36.5/week spread)

AND WE'RE BACK!

Well I'm back in the saddle again.  Year 2 of the experiment that I started based on this post.  Last year didn't end well and I ran out of time to make picks.  No need to recap the last week of picks.  It was a crushing defeat on both accounts.  I'm going to crack down on the rules a bit.  Only 5 picks a week.  That's it. I don't care if the numbers are good for 30 games.  Stick to 5 per week.  Narrow it down to the best.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 1 Picks!  Sep 1 - Sep 5 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Kansas State +15.5 @ Stanford  WIN

Western Mich +5 @ Northwestern  WIN

San Jose St +5 @ Tulsa  LOSS

Clemson @ Auburn +7.5  WIN

Notre Dame @ Texas +3.5 WIN

Here is a breakdown of the first season of the system.  Nothing to write home about.  We'll do it better in 2016!

NFL Week 14 Record: 0-2-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 47-52-4 (47.4%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (11 weeks) 32-39-3

NFL 2015 Record (12 weeks):  15-13-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  25 of 95 (26.3%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.
Week 10:  -24.5 with spread.  -4 straight up.
Week 11:  +32.5 with spread.  +82 straight up.
Week 12:  +31.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +297  (+24.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +1020  (+85/week vs +60.25/week spread)