Put Me Out of My Misery, or Show Me the Money

Well it all comes down to this.  Can we finish in the black?  Probably only if we go 5-0.  I'll take 4-1.  It all depends on rivalry week (for some?)  Not sure if the first game is between rivals or not, but it would appear that maybe the other two SEC games are maybe rivals.  At least Tennessee and Vandy are in-state rivals, but is it really a "rivalry" that anyone outside the state cares about? Nope.  Arkansas and Missouri share a border, but the Tigers are pretty new to the SEC, who did Arkansas play their last game against before Missouri? Is it even the same every year? Do I really care? Nope.  Can't imagine Navy and SMU really feeling like rivals.  Just about as much as WVU and Iowa St.  So much for rivalry week.  Take the Wolverines to keep it close if you want.  I'd also take Alabama no matter what the line.  They are proven world beaters and should roll tide over anyone they face in the next 4 games (this week, SEC Champ, Playoff game 1, NCAA Champ game).

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Picks!  Nov 22 - Nov 28 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ball St. +7.5 @ Miami (Oh.)  WIN

Arkansas @ Missouri +7.5  WIN

West Virginia @ Iowa St. +8  LOSS

Navy @ SMU +7  LOSS

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +7.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Iowa @ Illinois +9.5 LOSS 28 - 0 (Margin +28)  The trip to the Champaign room was not everything we'd hoped it would be.  Game was close for a while.  Jeff George Jr. would have at least scored some points. Damn you Wes Lunt.


• Oklahoma St. @ TCU -5 LOSS 31 - 6 (Margin +25)  Again, how could TCU be favored and the line moving up despite NO ONE betting on them?  Vegas has a serious problem of being stupid right now.  Either my trend data is garbage or the oddsmakers are on holiday break a little early.


• Miami (FL) @ NC State +3 LOSS 27 - 13 (Margin +14)  No comment.


• Washington St. @ Colorado -6 WIN 24 - 38 (Margin -14)  The only bright spot of the week.


• Stanford @ Cal +11 LOSS 45 - 31 (Margin +14) Ed's son was unstoppable.  Finally put that "can't score road TDs" nonsense to bed.


• Arkansas @ Mississippi St. -1.5 LOSS 58 - 42 (Margin +16)  This line was so terrible it had to be right.  Either that or Vegas likes losing money.  You figure it out, because I can't.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 1-5-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 29-29-3 (50.0 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (12 weeks) 22-25-2

NFL 2016 Record (11 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  20 of 54 (37.0 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +5  (+0.42/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +399 (+33.3/week vs +32.8/week spread)

I'm Reading, "DON'T KILL YOURSELF" Books!

Does anyone else feel like their winning percentage is just disappearing?  I feel so much like giving up.  But like the men of Troy did last week, I will Fight On.  Got two favorites for you this week plus a bonus pick favorite to try and catch up.  Usually avoid them at all costs, but these look too good again.  Just like the Buckeyes vs Nebraska (but not as good).  Also, after being one of the 3 B1G whipping boy teams, the Illini are catching ONLY 9.5 against the Hawks who proved to be world beaters last week.  That line stinks worse than Louisville's chances to get to the college football playoff after getting trounced by Houston.  Expect a let down from that pesky Iowa squad this week as they avoid getting shocked in Champaign by the slimmest of margins (or blow out Illinois by 77). Let's be honest, anything is possible at this point.  Otherwise the other picks are because everyone is on Ok St., Miami, Wazoo, Stanford, and Arkansas, but the line moved the other way.  That is all.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Picks!  Nov 15 - Nov 21 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Iowa @ Illinois +9.5  LOSS

Oklahoma St. @ TCU -5  LOSS

Miami (FL) @ NC State +3  LOSS

Washington St. @ Colorado -6  WIN

Stanford @ Cal +11  LOSS

Bonus pick: Arkansas @ Mississippi St. -1.5  LOSS

Here's what last week looked like:

• North Carolina @ Duke +11.5 WIN 27 - 28 (Margin -1)  Outright win starts off the week right.  Hold on tight, we're going to need it.


• Utah @ Arizona St. +6 LOSS 49 - 26 (Margin +23)  This game got out of hand early.


• Penn St. @ Indiana +7.5 LOSS 45 - 31 (Margin +14)  Ridiculously bad beat.  IU goes from WINNING OUTRIGHT by 3 with 6:51 to play to losing the game by 14.  Capped off by a sack fumble return for a meaning less TD when they could have fell on it and took one knee to win.


• Tulsa +1 @ Navy LOSS 40 - 42 (Margin +2)  Lost by a point. Cool.


• Vanderbilt @ Missouri -3.5 WIN 17 - 26 (Margin -9)  Missouri is bad, but were favored and the line was moving up.  Strange pick, but it had to be the right side.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 2-3-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 28-24-3 (53.8 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (11 weeks) 21-20-2

NFL 2016 Record (10 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  20 of 54 (37.0 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -67  (-6.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +316 (+28.7/week vs +34.8/week spread)

This Is Why People Don't Make Money On Sports Gambling

Shocking the world with these picks this week.  Two Thursday games going against top 25 teams and a favorite?  What is going on here?  Guess I'm bucking the trend.  Also, I'm unofficially taking credit for all four of my non-official winners last week (anti Utah St., NC St. +5.5, Alabama -8.5, and Ohio St. -17).  It's my blog, I can do whatever I want.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Picks!  Nov 8 - Nov 14 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

North Carolina @ Duke +11.5  WIN

Utah @ Arizona St. +6  LOSS

Penn St. @ Indiana +7.5  LOSS

Tulsa +1 @ Navy  LOSS

Vanderbilt @ Missouri -3.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Texas A&M @ Mississippi St. +12 WIN 28 - 35 (Margin -7)  Hope you enjoyed your time at the #4 ranked spot TAMU, it was fun while it lasted.


• TCU +8.5 @ Baylor WIN 62 - 22 (Margin -40)  Keep the straight up winners coming!


• Missouri +6.5 @ South Carolina LOSS 21 - 31 (Margin +10)  After keeping it close and tying the game early in the 3rd quarter, the Cocks scored a TD and tacked on a FG, while the Tigers failed to score again (2 missed FGs and 2 interceptions).


• Arizona +17  @ Washington St. LOSS 7 - 69 (Margin +62)  Loss is an understatement.  This annihilates my point differential for the week.  Was looking good after games 1 and 2.


• Georgia @ Kentucky +2.5 LOSS 27 - 24 (Margin +3)  Lost on a last second FG.  Dumb.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Record: 2-3-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 26-21-3 (55.3 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (10 weeks) 19-17-2

NFL 2016 Record (9 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  19 of 50 (38 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -73.5  (-7.4/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +287 (+28.7/week vs +36.1/week spread)

Can I Get A..........

Jay-Z asked that question once.  The words that ended the question rhymed with "Luck Too."  Sometimes I want to ask that question to the Utah States and Georgia Southerns of the world.  Really any team that gets blown out when the betting trends says they should keep it close or win.  Coincidentally, Utah State looks like the right side again, but I am not taking them.  I'm also not going against FSU with a stinker.  Also, LSU getting 7 at home seems to be too low for an Alabama team that appear to be world beaters this year.  And there is another line that looks to be so ridiculous that I wanted to take it because it stinks to high heaven, but it's a favorite.  The Buckeyes, who haven't beat the last 4 spreads (3 of 4 were 19 points or more and the other was 10), are laying 17 at home versus Nebraska whose first loss came in OT last week.  Now I've thought the Huskers were overrated all year, but they still took Wisco to OT at Camp Randall.  That was surprising.  Funny, who else needed OT to beat Wisco at Camp Randall (Hint: It was Ohio State).  Yet, Ohio State is favored by 3 scores.  I almost talked myself into it right now.  Lay the points and watch the Buckeyes roll.  I'll just say I told you so next week (or deny everything I just said).

It certainly is a grind, this season.  Survived by the skin of my teeth last week.  Get ready for yet another week of dogs.  How many will win outright?  I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Picks!  Nov 1 - Nov 7 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Texas A&M @ Mississippi St. +12 WIN

TCU +8.5 @ Baylor  WIN

Missouri +6.5 @ South Carolina  LOSS

Arizona +17  @ Washington St.  LOSS

Georgia @ Kentucky +2.5  LOSS

Here's what last week looked like:

• App. St. @ Georgia So. +4.5 LOSS 34 - 10 (Margin +24)  Good start for the week.


• San Diego St. @ Utah St. +6 LOSS 40 - 10 (Margin +30)  Game 2 and we go deeper in the hole.


• Army +7 @ Wake Forest WIN 21 - 13 (Margin -8)  Go Black Knights.


• Tennessee @ South Carolina +13.5 WIN 21 - 24 (Margin -3)  Oh this one was my favorite.  Prime picking.


• NYJ @ CLE +3 PUSH 31 - 28 (Margin +3)  Browns were up, then down, and then lost by 3.  That's about all.  Push is a win.  Even if this one doesn't feel like it.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 2-2-1

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 24-18-3 (57.1 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (9 weeks) 17-14-2

NFL 2016 Record (8 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  17 of 45 (37.8 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -55  (-6.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +259 (+28.8/week vs +34.8/week spread)