Turkey Day Single and Others

Here I go again (on my own).  It's time for a Turkey Day Single and NCAAF Rivalry week!  On to the bank below, we're down $1,200 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($12,760) + $11,340 + $220 = ($1,200).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Boston College @ FSU +1.5 WIN 21 - 22 (Margin -1)  This was a stinky poo line.

Michigan State @ Nebraska +1.5 WIN 6 - 9 (Margin -3)  No touchdowns and all field goals make for a boring game.

Mississippi +3 @ Vanderbilt LOSS 29 - 36 (OT) (Margin +7)  Overtime losers suck.

Arizona State +3.5 @Oregon WIN 29 - 31 (Margin +3)  Love the hook!

Arizona +10.5 @ Washington State LOSS 28 - 69 (Margin +41)  One game kills the weekly point differential.

TB +1.5 @ NYG LOSS 35 - 38 (Margin +3)  Stupid Eli.

DEN +7 @ LAC WIN 23 - 22 (Margin -1)  Surprised by the outright win here.

HOU -3 @ WAS LOSS 23 - 21 (Margin -2)  Dumb.

PIT @ JAX +5.5 WIN 20 - 16 (Margin +4)  Bortleservice.

MIN @ CHI -2.5 WIN 20 - 25 (Margin -5)  I don't like being correct in these situations.

I can't wait until these games go 10-0.  Parlay 'em, money line 'em, and tease 'em all.  Guaranteed to go wrong............ until we get hot again.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 picks!  Nov 20 - Nov 26 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Virginia @ Va. Tech +4.5

Washington +2.5 @ Washington State

Arizona State @ Arizona +2

Oklahoma State @ TCU +5.5

Notre Dame @ USC +11

CHI @ DET +3

JAX @ BUF +3

CLE +3 @ CIN

PIT @ DEN +3

GB @ MIN -3.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 6-4-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 54-60-2 (47.37 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (12 weeks) 25-34-1 (42.37 %) VERSUS SVP 49-49-1 (50.0 %)
NFL 2018 Record (11 weeks):  29-26-1 (52.73 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  24 of 96 (25.00 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +220.00  (+18.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +806.00 (+67.17/week vs +48.83/week spread)

Like the Captain of the Titanic, I'm Going Down With This Ship

Do you ever feel like you are just disappearing?  I feel so much like giving up.  So fading myself last week would have resulted in a stellar 7-3 week.  Choose at your own risk how to proceed.  On to the bank below, we're down $1,360 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($11,660) + $10,080 + $220 = ($1,360).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Mississippi +13 @ Texas A&M LOSS 24 - 38 (Margin +14)  Rebels can score a ton... unless they play the Aggies?  I call BS.

Ohio State @ Michigan State +4 LOSS 26 - 6 (Margin +20)  Way to defend the home field.

Middle Tennessee State @ UTEP +13.5 LOSS 48 - 32 (Margin +16)  Know nothing about this game except that a FG would have made it a winner.

Northwestern @ Iowa -10 LOSS 14 - 10 (Margin +4)  This line was so big it had to be the right side.  The entire public universe thought NWU would cover 10.... so if that was true, why would Vegas let a bunch of suckers win?!

Southern Mississippi +12 @ UAB WIN 23 - 26 (OT) (Margin +3)  The Golden Eagles are my new favorite team.

ATL @ CLE +4 WIN 16 - 28 (Margin -12)  Browns Superbowl 2021 - if the Cavs can do it, anyone can.  #believeland.

NO @ CIN +5.5 LOSS 51 - 14 (Margin +37)  Just a pedestrian effort from the Bengals here.

NE @ TEN +6.5 WIN 10 - 34 (Margin -24)  This is how the Saints/Bengals game was supposed to go.

LAC @ OAK +9.5 LOSS 20 - 6 (Margin +14)  I don't know why, but oddsmakers continue to have way too much faith in the Raiders.  Are they even trying to win?  Their ATS record is the same as their outright record (2-7) and the they have been getting less than a TD for every game except this one, despite losing by an average of 18+ points in all the lost ATS games.

WAS @ TB -3 LOSS 16 - 3 (Margin +13)  So the Redskins lay an egg on defense at home, but turn stout on the road in Tampa.  Good one.

I can't wait until these games go 10-0.  Parlay 'em, money line 'em, and tease 'em all.  Guaranteed to go wrong............ until we get hot again.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 picks!  Nov 13 - Nov 19 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Boston College @ FSU +1.5

Michigan State @ Nebraska +1.5

Mississippi +3 @ Vanderbilt

Arizona State +3.5 @Oregon

Arizona +10.5 @ Washington State

TB +1.5 @ NYG

DEN +7 @ LAC

HOU -3 @ WAS

PIT @ JAX +5.5

MIN @ CHI -2.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 3-7-0 (30.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 48-56-2 (46.15 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (11 weeks) 22-32-1 (40.74 %) VERSUS SVP 46-44-1 (51.11 %)
NFL 2018 Record (10 weeks):  26-24-1 (52.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  21 of 88 (23.86 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +203.50  (+18.50/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +761.00 (+69.18/week vs +50.68/week spread)

Alright, Let's Try to KEEP OUR COMPOSURE

¡Ay Caramba!  Good thing this is all for entertainment purposes only!  It's almost comical how cold of a streak this is.  My hypothetical bookie would be laughing all the way to the bank!  On to the bank below, we're down $890 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($10,560) + $9,450 + $220 = ($890).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Michigan State @ Maryland +3.5 LOSS 24 - 3 (Margin +21).

Air Force +5 @ Army WIN 14 - 17 (Margin +3).

Ga. Tech @ North Carolina +4.5 LOSS 38 - 28 (Margin +10).

Missouri +6.5 @ Florida WIN 38 - 17 (Margin -21).

UCLA +10.5 @ Oregon LOSS 21 - 42 (Margin +21).

DET +4.5 @ MIN LOSS 9 - 24 (Margin +15).

PIT @ BAL -3 LOSS 23 - 16 (Margin +7).

LAC +2 @ SEA WIN 25 - 17 (Margin -8).

LAR +1.5 @ NO LOSS 35 - 45 (Margin +10).

GB +6 @ NE LOSS 17 - 31 (Margin +14).

I'm really tempted to fade all of my OWN picks this week, but nobody likes a quitter.  I'm not quitting on the system.  The system is quitting on me!  Here are 10 more blazing picks that could just sink this ship for good!

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 picks!  Nov 6 - Nov 12 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Mississippi +13 @ Texas A&M

Ohio State @ Michigan State +4

Middle Tennessee State @ UTEP +13.5

Northwestern @ Iowa -10

Southern Mississippi +12 @ UAB

ATL @ CLE +4

NO @ CIN +5.5

NE @ TEN +6.5

LAC @ OAK +9.5

WAS @ TB -3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Record: 3-7-0 (30.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 45-49-2 (47.87 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (10 weeks) 21-28-1 (42.86 %) VERSUS SVP 43-39-1 (52.44 %)
NFL 2018 Record (9 weeks):  24-21-1 (53.33 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  19 of 80 (23.75 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:    -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:    -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:    -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:    -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:    +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:    +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:    +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:    +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:    +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +173.50  (+17.35/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +676.00 (+67.60/week vs +50.25/week spread)

Mid-Season Grind Time

Going 50% results in losing the juice.  Last week was a $50 loss.  On to the bank below, we're down $420 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($9,460) + $8,820 + $220 = ($420).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Middle Tenn. St. @ Old Dominion +5 LOSS 51 - 17 (Margin +34)  No comment.

Purdue @ Michigan State +1 WIN 13 - 23 (Margin -10)  Sparty wanna thug.

Duke @ Pittsburgh +2.5 WIN 45 - 54 (Margin -9)  Who had the over also?

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State -1 WIN 13 - 28 (Margin -15)  I need more cow bell.

New Mexico State -1 @ Texas State LOSS 20 - 27 (Margin +7)  Whatever.

WAS @ NYG pick LOSS 20 - 13 (Margin +7)  This one was primed for the "upset."  I think Eli's brother could win with this team.

TB +4.5 @ CIN WIN 34 - 37 (Margin +3)  Fitzmagic comes in and pulls off the comeback only to get let down by the defense in the final minute (it was fine by me).

IND @ OAK +3 LOSS 42 - 28 (Margin +14)  Could Gruden get fired mid-season in his first year?  Anything is possible with the spawn of Al Davis running that team.

GB @ LAR -9.5 LOSS 27 - 29 (Margin -2)  Really?  The Rams can't score on or hold off the Packers unless their kick returner fumbles it back to them?  Pathetic.

NO pick @ MIN WIN 30 - 20 (Margin -10)  Thinking it would be the injury maligned defense that would be the death of the Vikes in this one, it was their two best offensive weapons that handed the Saints the game.

Here are 10 picks that you are guaranteed to hate, but will go 60% or better this week.  I'm not into making guarantees, but I guess I did guaranteed that you'll hate these picks.  So maybe I am into making guarantees.  As Tommy Boy once said, the guarantee is only as good as the man who makes it.  He also said something about a bull, a butcher, and sticking heads up rectal cavities.  It's gotta be your bull.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 picks!  Oct 30 - Nov 5 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Michigan State @ Maryland +3.5

Air Force +5 @ Army

Ga. Tech @ North Carolina +4.5

Missouri +6.5 @ Florida

UCLA +10.5 @ Oregon

DET +4.5 @ MIN

PIT @ BAL -3

LAC +2 @ SEA

LAR +1.5 @ NO

GB +6 @ NE

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 5-5-0 (50.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 42-42-2 (50.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (9 weeks) 19-25-1 (43.18 %) VERSUS SVP 38-35-1 (52.05 %)
NFL 2018 Record (8 weeks):  23-17-1 (57.50 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  17 of 71 (23.94 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +142.5  (+15.83/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +604.0 (+67.11/week vs +51.28/week spread)