Maybe Bed, Bath, & Beyond. I Don't Know. I Don't Know If We'll Have Enough Time!

Almost like I called it last week.  Had a nice little week.  Even the unofficial picks were good.  UConn won straight up, Boston College destroyed Virginia.  UNC got smashed again.  So glad I didn't take them just to try and prove something from the previous two weeks.  Indiana got beat by 8 so that was probably a loss depending on where you got it.  They were leading in the fourth quarter until they gave up two TDs.  BTW I had FIU down but took it away and put Arizona. Let's see how that works out for me.

Theoretical bank is ($8,470) + $8,820 + $110 = $460.

Here's what happened last week.

So. Florida @ Tulane +11.5 WIN 34 - 28 (Margin +6)  The Bulls still ran a play instead of taking a knee from about the 10 yard line for no reason whatsoever and I nearly broke the TV.

West Virginia @ Baylor +9.5 WIN 38 - 36 (Margin +2)  There's the back back back door cover for which I've been waiting all season.  23 points in the fourth quarter.

UL Monroe @ So. Alabama -4.5 WIN 23 - 33 (Margin -10)  A rare favorite seemed like the winner.

Colorado +10 @ Washington St. LOSS 0 - 28 (Margin +28)  Colorado was so bad this game.  So bad.

Iowa @ Northwestern -2 WIN 10 - 17 (OT) (Margin -7)  Oh boy. Overtime!

KC @ OAK +3 WIN 30 - 31 (Margin -1)  On the field.  What a finish.

NO @ GB +5.5 LOSS 26 - 17 (Margin +9)  I hate the Packers.

BAL @ MIN -5.5 WIN 16 - 24 (Margin -8)  Still too many FGs.

CAR @ CHI +3  WIN 3 - 17 (Margin -14)  Well done defense.

SEA @ NYG +5.5 LOSS 24 - 7 (Margin +17)  Cripes.  Totally killing my point diff this week.

JAX @ IND +3.5  LOSS 27 - 0 (Margin +27)  Even worse.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Picks!  Oct 24 - Oct 30 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Louisville @ Wake Forest +3

Washington St. @ Arizona +2.5

Appalachian St. @ Massachusetts +4.5

Louisiana Tech @ Rice +13

Michigan St. @ Northwestern +2.5

MIN -9.5 @ CLE (N)

OAK @ BUF -2.5

ATL @ NYJ +4.5

CAR @ TB -2

PIT @ DET +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record: 7-4-0 (63.6 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 42-34-1 (55.3 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (8 weeks) 21-19-0 (52.5%) VERSUS SVP 27-28-1 (49.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (7 weeks):  21-15-1 (58.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  23 of 65 (35.4 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -6.0  (-0.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +407.0 (+50.88/week vs +51.63/week spread)

RIP to the Fudge Pack

At some point I've got to have at least a "lucky" week.  Even terrible gamblers win big sometimes.  They just lose way more often.  I guess I should be proud that I'm not one of them as I slowly creep back to 50%.  Let's look how last week's unofficial winners did: Bowling Green (L), Duke (W/P), Oregon St. (W), Boise St. (W), Cincinnati (L).  Still had 5 winners in the games I liked, but couldn't pick the damn right ones.  Forgot to add these earlier, but these are the winners I wrote down but didn't make the list.  Boston College, UConn, North Carolina (would have been 3rd week in a row), and Indiana.

Theoretical bank is ($7,260) + $7,350 + $110 = $200.

Here's what happened last week.

Miami (OH) @ Kent St. +9.5 WIN 14 - 17 (Margin -3)  On the field.

Toledo @ Central Michigan +7.5 LOSS 30 - 10 (Margin +20)  Not so much.

Virginia @ North Carolina +4 LOSS 20 - 14 (Margin +6)  Again, maybe they shouldn't recruit players that need fake classes to stay eligible.

NC State @ Pittsburgh +11 LOSS 35 - 17 (Margin +18)  Well I guess it was a one score game.

Auburn @ LSU +7 WIN 23 - 27 (Margin -4)  On the field.

GB @ MIN +3 WIN 10 - 23 (Margin -13)  Rodgers should have discount double checked his collar bone.

MIA @ ATL -11.5 LOSS 20 - 17 (Margin +3)  Absolute ridiculousness.  I guess that's what you get for taking favorites?  No, this line was pretty ridiculous (at least I thought, I can't remember which side the public was on) and it went up to 13 or 14 by game time.  So again, how does that happen unless Vegas is in the business of losing money?  Falcons pull another Super Bowl meltdown blowing a 17 point lead to lose outright.  Slight difference in that this time it was at home against a Jay Cutler led mediocre Dolphin team in a non-conference regular season game.

DET +5  @ NO LOSS 38 - 52 (Margin +14)  Saints tried to blow this one and Lions did have the ball only down 7 points in the fourth quarter after being down something like 10-44.  Promptly through a pick-six from their own goal line (I think).

CHI +6.5 @ BAL  WIN 27 - 24 (OT) (Margin -3)  As soon as it went to OT, this one was a lock! Bears were leading the whole way.

TB @ ARI +2.5 WIN 33 - 38 (Margin -5)  All Day shows a team what he can do when they block some people.  He's just like Novocaine, just give it time, always works.  Let me be clear though, I don't make picks based on players or my perceived knowledge of the NFL.  Purely based on line movement and betting trends.  I didn't even know they traded/signed Peterson until I saw the highlights.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Picks!  Oct 17 - Oct 23 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

So. Florida @ Tulane +11.5

West Virginia @ Baylor +9.5

UL Monroe @ So. Alabama -4.5

Colorado +10 @ Washington St.

Iowa @ Northwestern -2

KC @ OAK +3 (I did take this one in the Super Contest, but didn't have time to post ahead of the game, so I'll give out 5 more for the zero people that read this)

NO @ GB +5.5

BAL @ MIN -5.5

CAR @ CHI +3

SEA @ NYG +5.5

JAX @ IND +3.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Record: 5-5-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 35-30-1 (53.8 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (7 weeks) 17-18-0 (48.6%) VERSUS SVP 23-25-1 (47.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (6 weeks):  18-12-1 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  21 of 57 (36.8 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -15.5  (-2.21/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +358.0 (+51.14/week vs +53.35/week spread)

Why Do I Do This?

I don't really have an answer.  The trends sure seem to point to the fact that I cannot make money in sports betting.  I can only win a minimal amount with a ton of risk, or more likely break even or lose.  For instance, let's keep a theoretical bank going now.  Assume odds on all games against the spread are the typical -110 (bet amount to win $100).  Say I put $110 on every game.  Of the 56 games selected so far (not including this week since we don't have results yet), that's a $6,160 investment.  I got my investment of $110 back plus $100 on 30 of those games which equals $6,300.  I got only my investment back on one of the games (push) which is $110.  So my bank is -$6160 + $6,300 + $110 = $250.  So at what point can this be a worthwhile source of income?  Say I started betting $1,100 instead of $100.  With the same results my bank goes up to $2,500. I'd also need to be okay with potentially losing $61,600.  Yikes!  Good thing this is just an experiment for entertainment purposes only.

Anyway, just like I said in my last post, I would take credit for the winners that I didn't select as "official."  Those were Buffalo, UTEP, and Kent St.  If I would have taken all of those unofficial picks, we'd be 5-6 on the week so whoopie.  But the point is, I had 5 winners in that list, and I took the wrong ones.  Let's give some unofficial picks again.  Bowling Green, Duke, Oregon St., Boise St., Cincinnati.

Here's what happened last week.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina +16 LOSS 33 - 10 (Margin +23)  Maybe they shouldn't recruit kids that need to take fake classes for college credit to stay eligible.

Marshall @ Charlotte +15 WIN 14 - 3 (Margin +11)  What a barn burner!

UL Monroe @ Texas State +7 LOSS 45 - 27 (Margin +18)  Combined for 39 points in the first QUARTER and State had the lead.  Then State only scored 7 more in the game.  Dumb.

Miami (FL) @ Florida State +3 LOSS 24 - 20 (Margin +4)  The teams trade scores in the last 1:30 with the Canes taking the lead in the last seconds.  Good clock management, Noles.  FFS.

LSU +2.5 @ Florida WIN 17 - 16 (Margin -1)  On the field.

CAR +2.5 @ DET WIN 27 - 24 (Margin -3)  On the field.  Winning!

BUF @ CIN -3 WIN 20 - 16 (Margin -4)  The real question you had to ask yourself on this was, "How are the Bengals favored unless sportsbooks like losing money?"

ARI +6.5 @ PHI LOSS 7 - 34 (Margin +27)  That's not cool.  That line stunk to high heaven.

KC @ HOU +0 (Pick)  LOSS 42 - 34 (Margin +8)  Another stinker - JJ Watt going down didn't help the cause.

MIN -3 @ CHI PUSH 20 - 17 (Margin -3)  That's as ugly of a game as you might ever see.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Picks!  Oct 10 - Oct 16 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Miami (OH) @ Kent St. +9.5

Toledo @ Central Michigan +7.5

Virginia @ North Carolina +4

NC State @ Pittsburgh +11

Auburn @ LSU +7

GB @ MIN +3

MIA @ ATL -11.5

DET +5  @ NO

CHI +6.5 @ BAL

TB @ ARI +2.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Record: 4-5-1 (44.4 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 30-25-1 (54.5 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (6 weeks) 15-15-0 (50.0%) VERSUS SVP 18-23-1 (43.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (5 weeks):  15-10-1 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  16 of 48 (33.3 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -4.0  (-0.67/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +325.0 (+54.17/week vs +54.84/week spread)

I Wish I Could Give 'Em All

Oh my goodness, I LOVE the board this week.  So many collegiate games that fit the profile, but I will only pick 5.  I'm going to choose the games I think are the ugliest, therefore, they have the best chance of winning.  NFL slate is not the same.  A couple ugly ones though.  Here's a list of NCAA games I wrote down, but didn't put on the pick list.  Illinois, Buffalo, Northwestern, UTEP, Kansas, Kent State.... So if any of those win, I'm taking credit.  If they all lose, I'll take credit for NOT picking them. Any way it goes, I'm winning.

Here's what happened last week.

South Florida @ East Carolina +21 LOSS 61 - 31 (Margin +30)  Only a 7 point deficit at half.

Ohio @ Massachusetts +5.5 LOSS 58 - 50 (Margin +8)  Talk about points! So close.

Houston @ Temple +13 WIN 20 - 13 (Margin +7)  Don't mess with the Owls.

UConn +17.5 @ SMU LOSS 23 - 49 (Margin +26)  8 point game heading to 4th quarter, where are my backdoor covers?

North Texas +7.5 @ So. Mississippi WIN 43 - 28 (Margin -15)  The Mean Green don't lay down for anyone.

JAX @ NYJ +3.5 WIN 20 - 23 (OT) (Margin -3)  Winning!

BUF +7.5 @ ATL WIN 23 - 17 (Margin -6)  Nice little surprise outright win there.

DET @ MIN -2.5 LOSS 14 - 7 (Margin +7)  Three turnovers in second half equals loss.

PIT @ BAL +3  LOSS 26 - 9 (Margin +17)  The Ravens look good this year......

LAR +6.5 @ DAL WIN 35 - 30 (Margin -5)  Another little outright winner surprise on the leg of Greg Z with what has to be a record seven field goals.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Picks!  Oct 3 - Oct 9 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Notre Dame @ North Carolina +16

Marshall @ Charlotte +15

UL Monroe @ Texas State +7

LSU +2.5 @ Florida

Miami (FL) @ Florida State +3

CAR +2.5 @ DET

BUF @ CIN -3

ARI +6.5 @ PHI

KC @ HOU +0 (Pick)

MIN -3 @ CHI

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Record: 5-5-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 26-20-0 (56.5 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (5 weeks) 13-12-0 (52.0%) VERSUS SVP 15-17-1 (46.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (4 weeks):  13-8-0 (61.9 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  14 of 41 (34.1 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -37.5  (-7.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +245.0 (+49.0/week vs +56.5/week spread)