Let's start off the 2017 season with a bang biscuit! A clean slate! A fresh start! This blog has mostly become about sports betting and the possibility of beating the system by simply monitoring line movement and wager percentages (not total money wagered on either side - but just number of bets on either side). Obviously odds makers are in this business to MAKE money as opposed to lose it, so they adjust point spreads to minimize their risk (i.e., keep money equal on both sides) so they will only collect the "juice." On the other side of that, odds makers don't set point spreads based on their prediction of the outcome, not to say the spread doesn't sometimes end up like that because it does, but rather they set point spreads to encourage equal betting on both sides (see risk management statement). This setting of the point spread falls in line typically with the general public perception of the teams playing.
Example: Team A has a lot of public hype as being "good" and team B has little to no public hype, is unknown, or is thought to be "bad" based on any number of reasons that the public perception uses to form opinions (potentially non-factual evidence). In reality, Team B is a very tough match up for Team A based on many statistics that are unknown to public opinion. Team A plays Team B. Odds makers favor Team A by more points than statistics show they should, based on public opinion. More people bet on Team A (volume of bets) and maybe even more money is bet on Team A. Team B easily covers the spread because the line was too high based on statistics and the odds makers clean up with little risk. Sometimes Team A is favored by more than statistics show they should and it is LESS than what the public opinion deems to be a correct point spread. This is is known as the stinky line that seems too good to be true, which usually means it is. Don't fall for those traps. Take the other side and clean up with the sharks!
Here is a longer version of the system explained in a 2015 post when I started tracking my picks. Here's a post that recaps the last 2 years.
Ball St. +7 @ Illinois
App. St. +14.5 @ Georgia
Arkansas St. +14.5 @ Nebraska
Vanderbilt @ Mid. Tenn. St. +3.5
Tennessee @ Ga. Tech +3
NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 0-0-0
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 0-0-0 (NA %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (0 weeks) 0-0-0
NFL 2017 Record (0 weeks): 0-0-0
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins: 0 of 0 (NA %)
Point Differential by week:
NCAA Week 1: +0.0 with spread. +0.0 straight up.
Total point margin including spread: +0.0 (+0.0/week)
Total point margin straight up: +0.0 (+0.0/week vs +0.0/week spread)
