Things That Make You Go Hmmmmm.

The wild ride for college football is over, at least as this blog is concerned.  As I wrote in the previous post, I have zero faith in picking bowl games straight up, let alone ATS.  I'm sure they'll be some decent picks when we get to the larger bowls.  Anyway, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short breakdown of last week's winners:

• Florida +17.5 @ Alabama WIN 15 - 29 (Margin +14)  After watching this game and realizing how bad Florida's offense is, I can't believe this won.


• Michigan St. @ Iowa +3.5 WIN 16 - 13 (Margin +3)  What a defensive battle, looked good to keep it close all game.  Nearly pulled off the out right win, but that last drive was incredible for Sparty.


• CIN @ CLE +9.5 LOSS 37 - 3 (Margin +34)  Man do the Browns miss McCown, and that's saying something.


• ARI @ STL +5 LOSS 27 - 3 (Margin +24)  Dumb.


• DEN @ SD +3.5 LOSS 17 - 3 (Margin +14)  Phil Rivers could use some help on the O-line.  I saw this line jump up to 6 on Sunday morning.  Not good!


• PHI +10.5 @ NE WIN 35 - 28 (Margin -7)  As bad as the Eagles have been, this is a big line in the NFL.  Pats D is banged up also, not to mention Gronk and Edelman.  Keep the outright underdog winning streak alive!

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 3-3-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 47-50-4 (48.5%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (11 weeks) 32-39-3

NFL 2015 Record (11 weeks):  15-11-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  25 of 93 (26.9%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.
Week 10:  -24.5 with spread.  -4 straight up.
Week 11:  +32.5 with spread.  +82 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +265.5  (+24.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +970  (+88.2/week vs +64.1/week spread)

Here are your NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 8 - Dec 15 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

SEA @ BAL +11.5  LOSS

DAL +7 @ GB  LOSS

It's Official, Student Athletes Are Conspiring Against Me

Good thing the NCAAF season close is upon us.  I don't think I could survive too many more weeks.  I can't imagine posting winners for bowl games.  Those are a bigger crap shoot than the regular season and I don't think it's close.  Anyway, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short synopsis of this weeks action:

• Troy -1 @ Georgia St. LOSS 31 - 21 (Margin +10)  This line moved so much into Troy's favor, I thought it was the stone-cold lock of the century of the week.


• Washington St. @ Washington -7.5 WIN 10 - 45 (Margin -35)  This line was off all week and then suddenly there it was, and it looked ripe for the favorite.  Line was moving up despite only about 30% of ATS bets on the favorite.


• UMass +6.5 @ Buffalo WIN 31 - 26 (Margin -5)  Minutemen jumped out front and really never looked back, only surrendering the lead once.


• Va. Tech @ Virginia +3.5 WIN 23 - 20 (Margin +3)  Kept it close all game and surrendered a late FG to secure the win.


• Georgia @ Ga. Tech +4 LOSS 13 - 7 (Margin +6)  Yellow Jackets kept it close, but not close enough.  Lost turnover margin 0-3 and missed a FG that would have brought home the bacon.


• North Carolina @ NC State +3.5 LOSS 45 - 34 (Margin +11)  This line moved so much into NC State's favor, I thought it was the second stone-cold lock of the century of the week.


• Northwestern @ Illinois +3.5 LOSS 24 - 14 (Margin +10)  This line was kind of stinky.  It was a 10 point game for nearly the entire 4Q.  Illini couldn't find a way to get the back door cover.  Also missed two FGs.


• OAK @ TEN +1 LOSS 24 - 21 (Margin +3)  Titans took the lead with 4:41 to go.  They gave it right back with 1:21 remaining and then turned it over three offensive plays later.  Oakland was bailed out by a holding call on 4th down during their eventual scoring drive (I'm sure it was a bullshit call!)  


• ARI @ SF +10 WIN 19 - 13 (Margin +6)  Tie game late in the fourth.  Didn't seem to ever be in danger of losing this one after the game started.  Line was down to +7.5 at kickoff.


• TB @ IND -3 WIN 12 - 25 (Margin -13)  Matt Hasselbeck continues to be awesome.  Who needs that other guy?  What was his name again?

NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Record: 5-5-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 44-47-4 (48.4%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (10 weeks) 30-39-3
NFL 2015 Record (10 weeks):  14-8-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  24 of 87 (27.6%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.
Week 10:  -24.5 with spread.  -4 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +233  (+23.3/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +888  (+88.8/week vs +65.5/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Dec 1 - Dec 7 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Florida +17.5 @ Alabama (neutral site)  WIN

Michigan St. @ Iowa +3.5 (neutral site)  WIN

CIN @ CLE +9.5  LOSS

ARI @ STL +5  LOSS

DEN @ SD +3.5 (EDIT 11:49 AM Sunday 12/6/15 This line jumped up to 6 points this morning.... That does not bode well for this bet.)  LOSS

PHI +10.5 @ NE  WIN