Post-Turkey Day Turnaround

Better late than never.

Theoretical bank is ($15,620) + $15,330 + $550 = $260.

Last week was pretty good.  Back in black.

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.5 WIN 17 - 28 (Margin -11)  Winning on the field.

Georgia +1 @ Auburn WIN 28 - 7 (Margin -21)  Strange game this football.

UMass -1.5 @ Florida International LOSS 45 - 63 (Margin +18)  Talk about a barn burner.

TCU +7 @ Oklahoma LOSS 17 - 41 (Margin +24)  No more doubting Baker.

Ohio State -6 @ Wisconsin PUSH 21 - 27 (Margin -6)  Bucks should have put them away.

MIN +3 @ ATL WIN 14 - 9 (Margin -5)  The Bikes are annihilating ATS.

SF @ CHI -3 LOSS 15 - 14 (Margin +1)  I picked SF to win straight up in my other leagues.  I think this was a mistake.

DET @ BAL -2.5 WIN 20 - 44 (Margin -24)  Holla at those Ravens.

KC @ NYJ +3.5 WIN 31 - 38 (Margin -7)  On the field.

PIT @ CIN +5 WIN 23 - 20 (Margin +3)  Nearly on the field.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 5 - Dec 11 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Army +2.5 @ Navy (n)

GB @ CLE +3

DAL @ NYG +4

MIN @ CAR -2.5

PHI @ LAR -2

NE @ MIA +11

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 6-3-1 (66.67 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 73-64-5 (53.3%)
NCAAF 2017 Record (14 weeks) 39-33-3 (54.2%) VERSUS SVP 47-45-1 (51.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (13 weeks):  34-31-2 (52.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  42 of 116 (36.2 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14:  -37.0 with spread.  -28 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -158.5  (-11.32/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +573.0 (44.08+/week vs +53.42/week spread)

Thanksgiving was not something for which to be thankful

We're in the red.  I feel shame.

Theoretical bank is ($14,520) + $14,070 + $440 = ($10).

Here's what happened last week.  Worst NCAAF week of the season.  Nearly had the Turkey Day Trio, but then the G-Men did something stupid (go figure).  With 3:31 left and 2 time outs, only down by 7, they elected to go for it on 4th down from their own 32.  Then took a sack.  They were nearly guaranteed to get the ball back if they punted - as long as they didn't give up a first down to 3 running plays, but instead they decided to give up 3 points and then get the ball back. Good call.  So all they had to do was punt the god damn ball and not give up a defensive TD on their next possession and that game was a winner. But they must have thought that time ran faster in the fourth quarter when down by 7 (not being used to that situation this year)? Or that time outs wouldn't be granted to them (not ever having one that was really needed this year)?  Something in the bizzaro world or twilight zone would have made more sense.  Have a good career Ben Macadooosh.  Maybe go back to 3rd grade math and try adding 40 + 40. (hint: that's the play clock length in the NFL).  Seriously though, after looking at the point differential, I am a little pissed off we didn't do better this week.

New Mexico +20 @ San Diego State LOSS 10 - 35 (Margin +25)  No idea what happened here just know it was a one score game.

Western Kentucky @ Florida International +2.5 WIN 17 - 41 (Margin -24)  That will help the point diff.  I think we gonna need it.

Connecticut @ Cincinnati -5.5 LOSS 21 - 22 (Margin -1)  Well I'll be a monkey's uncle.

North Texas @ Rice +11 LOSS 30 - 14 (Margin +16)  Close again but no cigar.

Arkansas State @ UL Monroe +8 LOSS 67 - 50 (Margin +17)  Guess I should have taken the over.

MIN -3 @ DET WIN 30 - 23 (Margin -7)  Maybe I should just bet the farm on the Bikes each week.

LAC -2.5 @ DAL WIN 28 - 6 (Margin -22)  Great job Chargers, you rock.

NYG +7.5 @ WAS LOSS 10 - 20 (Margin +10)  I'd like to call this a bad beat, but I'm not sure it qualifies.  Maybe I should DM SVP on the twitter and see if it counts.  I'm sure he'd sympathize.

CAR @ NYJ +4.5 LOSS 35 - 27 (Margin +8)  Just not my week.

SEA @ SF +6.5 LOSS 24 - 13 (Margin +11)  Ditto.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Nov 28 - Dec 4 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.5

Georgia +1 @ Auburn

UMass -1.5 @ Florida International

TCU +7 @ Oklahoma

Ohio State -6 @ Wisconsin

MIN +3 @ ATL

SF @ CHI -3

DET @ BAL -2.5

KC @ NYJ +3.5

PIT @ CIN +5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Record: 3-7-0 (30.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 67-61-4 (52.3 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (13 weeks) 37-31-2 (54.4%) VERSUS SVP 45-42-1 (51.7 %)
NFL 2017 Record (12 weeks):  30-30-2 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  38 of 110 (34.5 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -121.5  (-9.35/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +573.0 (44.08+/week vs +53.42/week spread)