Final Week of the Regular Season

All NFL again this week.  It's official, we are OUT OF THE HOLE.  On to the bank below, we're up $ on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($16,720) + $16,590 + $330 = $200.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

KC @ SEA +2.5  WIN 31 - 38 (Margin -7)  Winning on the field.

TB +7.5 @ DAL WIN 20 - 27 (Margin +7)  Count it!

MIN -5.5 @ DET WIN 27 - 9 (Margin -18)  Keep it rolling Bikes.

CHI @ SF +4 LOSS 14 - 9 (Margin +5)  Thought the Niners were coming through big time in back to back weeks.

DEN @ OAK +2.5 WIN 14 - 27 (Margin -13)  Another outright winner.

One final week push before the playoffs. LET'S GO!

Here are your 2018 NFL Week 17 picks!  Dec 25 - Dec 31 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

PHI @ WAS +6.5

DET +8 @ GB

LAC @ DEN +6.5

CHI @ MIN -4.5

IND @ TEN +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 17/NFL Week 16 Record: 4-1-0 (80.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 79-70-3 (53.02 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (17 weeks) 33-36-2 (47.83 %) VERSUS SVP 59-56-1 (51.30 %)
NFL 2018 Record (16 weeks):  46-34-1 (57.50 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  41 of 129 (31.78 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14: +29.0 with spread.  +101.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15: -17.5 with spread.  +11.0 straight up.
NFL 15/NCAA16:  -42.5 with spread. -29.0 straight up.
NFL 16/NCAA17:  -37.0 with spread.  -26.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +78.0  (+4.58/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +823.00 (+48.41/week vs +43.83/week spread)

Update from before Christmas

All NFL again this week.  Bowl games continue to be the bane of my existence.  NEARLY OUT OF THE HOLE.  On to the bank below, we're back to being down $90 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($16,170) + $15,750 + $330 = ($90).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

HOU @ NYJ +6  LOSS 29 - 22 (Margin +7)  Close but no cigar.

MIA @ MIN -7 WIN 17 - 41 (Margin -24)  New O coordinator + home game + crappy opponent + 2 game losing streak = dominating win.

TB +7.5 @ BAL LOSS 12 - 20 (Margin +8)  My goodness we were close again to a big week.

TEN +2.5 @ NYG WIN 17 - 0 (Margin -17)  Not sure what this was about.

SEA @ SF +4.5 WIN 23 - 26 (OT) (Margin -3)  This might be my favorite win of the season - not to mention OUTRIGHT! Overtime was scary since SF was leading all game.

Well the NFL continues to follow the "trends" that I like and we are rolling here towards the end of the season. I already posted these next picks, and well they went 4-1 so bite me.  Feels good to be good right now.

Here are your 2018 NFL Week 16 picks!  Dec 18 - Dec 24 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

KC @ SEA +2.5

TB +7.5 @ DAL

MIN -5.5 @ DET

CHI @ SF +4

DEN @ OAK +2.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 16/NFL Week 15 Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 75-69-3 (52.08 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (16 weeks) 33-36-2 (47.83 %) VERSUS SVP 59-56-1 (51.30 %)
NFL 2018 Record (15 weeks):  42-33-1 (56.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  39 of 125 (31.20 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14: +29.0 with spread.  +101.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15: -17.5 with spread.  +11.0 straight up.
NFL 15/NCAA16:  -42.5 with spread. -29.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +115.0  (+7.19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +849.00 (+53.06/week vs +45.87/week spread)

Merry Christmas

Busy week.... Barely time to post. Last week recap coming later. Take these 5 to the bank.  Tease 'em, parlay 'em, and take them on the money line.

KC @ SEA +2.5

TB +7.5 @ DAL

MIN -5.5 @ DET

CHI @ SF +4

DEN @ OAK +2.5

It's BOWL SEASON!

All NFL this week.  Bowl games are the bane of my existence.  On to the bank below, we're back to being down $170 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($15,620) + $15,120 + $330 = ($170).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Navy +7 @ Army (n)  PUSH 10 - 17 (Margin +7)  Whatever, push is a win.

NE @ MIA +7.5 WIN 33 -34 (Margin -1)  Miracle play for the outright win, but the bet was mostly safe.

PHI +3.5 @ DAL LOSS 23 - 29 (OT) (Margin +6)  Overtime in NFL is still dumb.

DEN @ SF +4.5 WIN 14 - 20 (Margin -6)  On the field.  Liquid fire Bronco team loses to crappy Niner team.

LAR @ CHI +3 WIN 6 - 15 (Margin -9)  This one was almost hard to convince myself to pick. Almost.  On the field - never even close really.  Defense still exists in the NFL - maybe some GMs should take notice.

MIN +3.5 @ SEA WIN 7 - 21 (Margin +14)  Hard to believe a multi-billion dollar league can still have officiating mistakes that are so blatant.  It's quite remarkable.

I don't really want to pick bowl games because it's hard enough to pick college games because you can't trust kids to do anything, but bowl games you really never know who cares about being there.  I'm almost surprised Vegas even offers lines (almost).

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 16/NFL Week 15 picks!  Dec 11 - Dec 17 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

HOU @ NYJ +6

MIA @ MIN -7

TB +7.5 @ BAL

TEN +2.5 @ NYG

SEA @ SF +4.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Record: 3-2-1 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 72-67-3 (51.80 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (15 weeks) 33-36-2 (47.83 %) VERSUS SVP 59-56-1 (51.30 %)
NFL 2018 Record (14 weeks):  39-31-1 (55.71 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  37 of 121 (30.58 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14: +29.0 with spread.  +101.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15: -17.5 with spread.  +11.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +157.5  (+10.50/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +878.00 (+58.53/week vs +48.03/week spread)

Alligator Blood

Another 60% week in the books.  Not a ton of action this week as we prep for Bowl Season.  Could take a stab at a few FCS playoff games.  As the post title references Mike McDermott when he's battling back on Teddy KGB in Rounders, that's how the rest of this season has to go.  On to the bank below, we're back to being ONLY down $250 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($14,960) + $14,490 + $220 = ($250).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

UAB +2 @ Middle Tennessee State WIN 27 - 25 (Margin -2)  A walk-off, twelve men in the huddle penalty clinches the Blazers Conference-USA title game.

Fresno State +2 @ Boise State WIN 19 - 16 (OT) (Margin -3)  Bulldogs walk-off TD in OT on the blue turf which was covered in snow clinches the Mountain West title game.

UL Lafayette +17.5 @ App. State WIN 19 - 30 (Margin +11)  Although they didn't win the game, the Ragin' Cajuns won where it counts in the Sun Belt title game.

Marshall +4 @ Va. Tech LOSS 20 - 41 (Margin +21)  Well that wasn't very close.

East Carolina +25.5 @ North Carolina State LOSS 3 - 58 (Margin +55)  Those three points came on a last second field goal to avoid the shutout......... and hit the over (#badbeats).

IND @ JAX +4 WIN 0 - 6 (Margin -6)  Cody Kessler > Andrew Luck > Blake Bortles.

CAR @ TB +3.5 WIN 17 - 24 (Margin -7)  Scam threw a few INTs in this one.

BUF +4.5 @ MIA WIN 17 - 21 (Margin +4)  This season, I am thankful for the hook.

DEN @ CIN +4 LOSS 24 - 10 (Margin +14)  This one seemed pretty stinky.  Driskel taking over and only getting 4 from a Denver team that just beat LAC and PIT.

MIN +5 @ NE LOSS 10 - 24 (Margin +14)  The NE secondary deserves a pat (no pun intended) on the back for how disciplined they played all game, committing ZERO PASS INTERFERENCE PENALTIES.

Although I prefer 9-1 weeks, I'll gladly take 6-4 weeks for the rest of eternity.  Have to settle for a 5-1 week here.  Not enough games on the slate.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 picks!  Dec 4 - Dec 10 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Navy +7 @ Army (n)

NE @ MIA +7.5

PHI +3.5 @ DAL

DEN @ SF +4.5

LAR @ CHI +3

MIN +3.5 @ SEA

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 6-4-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 69-65-2 (51.49 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (14 weeks) 33-36-1 (47.83 %) VERSUS SVP 59-56-1 (51.30 %)
NFL 2018 Record (13 weeks):  36-29-1 (55.38 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  34 of 115 (29.57 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14: +29.0 with spread.  +101.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +175.0  (+12.50/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +867.00 (+61.93/week vs +49.43/week spread)

It's About Time

Good results last week.  Destroyed the point differential.  Time to keep it going.  On to the bank below, we're back to being ONLY down $410 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($13,860) + $13,230 + $220 = ($410).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Virginia @ Va. Tech +4.5 WIN 31 - 34 (OT) (Margin -3)  On the field.

Washington +2.5 @ Washington State WIN 28 - 15 (Margin -13)  On the field.

Arizona State @ Arizona +2 WIN 41 - 40 (Margin +1)  This line stunk from the word "Go."  Wildcats gave up 69 points last week.  How could they only be getting 2 from ASU?  Should have been on the field, up 19 with 13 min to play.

Oklahoma State @ TCU +5.5 WIN 24 - 31 (Margin -7)  This line stunk as well.  TCU is horrible and the Cowboys just beat West Virginia last week.  TCU wins on the field!

Notre Dame @ USC +11 WIN 17 - 24 (Margin +7)  Another rivalry game looking like upset central for most of the first half.  Irish stormed out of the gates in the 2nd half and USC held on to get the back door cover.

CHI @ DET +3 LOSS 23 - 16 (Margin +7)  Lions found every single way not to win outright in this game.

JAX @ BUF +3 WIN 21 - 24 (Margin -3)  On the field.

CLE +3 @ CIN WIN 35 - 20 (Margin -15)  On the field BIG!

PIT @ DEN +3 WIN 17 - 24 (Margin -7) On the field.

GB @ MIN -3.5 WIN 17 - 24 (Margin -7)  Just a little TCB - you know, takin' care of business.

There's the hot streak I've been waiting for.  15-5 in last 2 weeks.  Let's ride it 'til she bucks.  Not a lot of options out there during conference championship week.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 picks!  Nov 27 - Dec 3 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

UAB +2 @ Middle Tennessee State

Fresno State +2 @ Boise State

UL Lafayette +17.5 @ App. State

Marshall +4 @ Va. Tech

East Carolina +25.5 @ North Carolina State

IND @ JAX +4

CAR @ TB +3.5

BUF +4.5 @ MIA

DEN @ CIN +4

MIN +5 @ NE

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Record: 9-1-0 (90.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 63-61-2 (50.81 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (13 weeks) 30-34-1 (46.88 %) VERSUS SVP 56-51-1 (52.34 %)
NFL 2018 Record (12 weeks):  33-27-1 (55.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  30 of 105 (28.57 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +146.00  (+11.23/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +766.00 (+58.92/week vs +47.69/week spread)