Turkey Day Winners

Gobble these up.

Theoretical bank is ($13,420) + $13,440 + $440 = $460.

Here's what happened last week.  Bears and Browns really bent me over.  One with terrible beat on late defensive TD with the game in hand and one was a missed FG that would have sent it to OT - not that it would have been a winner for sure, but the Bears also gave up a terrible defensive TD on a fumbled snap, which is literally impossible.  Fumbled snaps turn into DOG-PILES, not effing TDs. Baylor Bears were leading too, and literally needed one score in the 4th quarter. Cripes.  Not to mention we went negative in point diff this week.......... without the spread. Still a .500 week, which is LOSING.

So. Alabama @ Georgia So. +5 WIN 0 - 52 (Margin -52)  That's right.  The 0-9 Georgia Southern Eagles won their first game of the season by 52.

Purdue +7.5 @ Iowa WIN 24 - 15 (Margin -9)  But the Hawkeyes beat the tar out of the Buckeyes.  Makes no sense.

Iowa State @ Baylor +9 LOSS 23 - 13 (Margin +10)  C'mon Bears, score a couple points.

Missouri @ Vanderbilt +8.5 LOSS 45 - 17 (Margin +28)  Oh boy, one of those bad ones.

Marshall @ UTSA +1 WIN 7 - 9 (Margin -2)  Road Runners don't lay down for anybody.

DET @ CHI +2.5 LOSS 27 - 24 (Margin +3)  Nice kick Conor Barth.

KC @ NYG +10.5 WIN 9 - 12 (Margin -3)  What an ugly one - aside from being a WINNER!

JAX @ CLE +7.5 LOSS 19 - 7 (Margin +12)  Bad beat of the year in NFL (of my picks).

LAR @ MIN -2 WIN 7 - 24 (Margin -17)  The Bikes are now 7-2-1 ATS this year. How about that?

NE @ OAK +6.5 LOSS 33 - 8 (Margin +25)  Give me a break Los Raiders.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Picks!  Nov 21 - Nov 27 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

New Mexico +20 @ San Diego State

Western Kentucky @ Florida International +2.5

Connecticut @ Cincinnati -5.5

North Texas @ Rice +11

Arkansas State @ UL Monroe +8

MIN -3 @ DET

LAC -2.5 @ DAL

NYG +7.5 @ WAS

CAR @ NYJ +4.5

SEA @ SF +6.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 5-5-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 64-54-4 (54.2 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (12 weeks) 36-27-2 (57.1%) VERSUS SVP 43-36-1 (54.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (11 weeks):  28-27-2 (50.9 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  37 of 103 (35.9 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -105.5  (-8.79/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +540.0 (45.0+/week vs +53.79/week spread)

SKI-U-MAH!

Had a wonderful time up in the Twin Cities watching the Gophers roll the Huskers (hence why I was late to the party for picks - driving all afternoon/evening Friday night and up early for an 11 o'clock kick on Sat).  Made those picks sitting at Stub and Herbs outside the stadium.  I had already done a little research and had some idea of who I [see Vegas] liked). End sidebar:  Anyway, I (or anyone in the universe) didn't see that offensive explosion coming.  Guess Croft was setting up the QB keepers during the first 4 B1G games to break them out in this one.

Theoretical bank is ($12,320) + $12,390 + $440 = $510.

Here's what happened last week.  Held it together pretty well. Just a 0.5 point away from a 7-3 week. Alas only 6-4.

Va. Tech @ Ga. Tech +3 WIN 22 - 28 (Margin -6)  Thank goodness for the hook.

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech +4 LOSS 48 - 23 (Margin +25)  No good.

Georgia @ Auburn +2.5 WIN 17 - 40 (Margin -23)  War Eagle.

Alabama @ Mississippi State +14.5 WIN 31 - 24 (OT) (Margin +7)  Like Gus Johnson says in the BWWs commercial, "This one's headed to OVERTIME."

Notre Dame @ Miami (FL) +3.5 WIN 8 - 41 (Margin -33)  Absolutely trucked 'em.

NO @ BUF +3 LOSS 47 - 10 (Margin +37)  Wrecked point diff for the week.

LAC @ JAX -3.5 LOSS 17 - 20 (OT) (Margin -3)  Score a TD in OT you stupid jungle cats.

DAL +3 @ ATL LOSS 7 - 27 (Margin +20)  Lose Sean Lee on Dallas defense, it becomes less effective than the Huskers new 3-4 scheme.

MIN -1 @ WAS WIN 38 - 30 (Margin -8)  The Bikes are something like 6-2-1 ATS this year - two losses coming in the only two straight up losses.

NYG @ SF +2.5 WIN 21 - 31 (Margin -10)  Look at those Niners NOT going win-less on the season.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Picks!  Nov 14 - Nov 20 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

So. Alabama @ Georgia So. +5

Purdue +7.5 @ Iowa

Iowa State @ Baylor +9

Missouri @ Vanderbilt +8.5

Marshall @ UTSA +1

DET @ CHI +2.5

KC @ NYG +10.5

JAX @ CLE +7.5

LAR @ MIN -2

NE @ OAK +6.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 59-49-4 (54.6 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (11 weeks) 33-25-2 (56.9%) VERSUS SVP 39-32-1 (54.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (10 weeks):  26-24-2 (52.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  33 of 94 (35.1 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -44.5  (-4.05/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +545.0 (+49.55/week vs +53.60/week spread)

It's Turning Into a Grind

I might have been a few barley pops deep when I made these picks, but there were so many I liked, that I went with 10.  Started off good, then went cold in the night games.  NFL was horrible.

Theoretical bank is ($11,220) + $11,130 + $440 = $350.

Here's what happened last week.

Clemson @ NC State +7.5 WIN 38 - 31 (Margin +7)  Thank goodness for the hook.

Colorado +4 @ Arizona St. LOSS 30 - 41 (Margin +11)  No good.

New Mexico St. @ Texas St. +10 PUSH 45 - 35 (Margin +10)  Push is a win.

Georgia St. @ Georgia So. +4 PUSH 21 - 17 (Margin +4)  Throw out the records when these two teams get together!  They must have because Georgia So. was 0-7 entering the game only catching 4.

Appalachian St. @ UL Monroe +9.5 WIN 45 - 52 (Margin -7)  On the field.

Coastal Carolina +24 @ Arkansas WIN 38 - 39 (Margin +1)  Should have been on the field.  Crazy talk the 1-8 Chanticleers could compete with big bad SEC team.

Wake Forest +14 @ Notre Dame WIN 37 - 48 (Margin +11)  Good enough.

San Diego St. @ San Jose St. +23.5 LOSS 52 - 7 (Margin +45)  Maybe if the Spartans wouldn't have given up 554 yards on the ground they would have covered the spread.

Oregon St. +7.5 @ California LOSS 23 - 37 (Margin +14)  One back door TD away.

Stanford -1 @ Washington St. LOSS 21 - 24 (Margin +3)  Weak.

LAR @ NYG +3.5 LOSS 51 - 17 (Margin +34)  Talk about a stinker.

TB +7 @ NO LOSS 10 - 30 (Margin +20)  My goodness the wheels have fallen off this week.

DEN +8.5 @ PHI LOSS 23 - 51 (Margin +28)  If you wanna crown them, then crown their ass.

KC @ DAL +1 WIN 17 - 28 (Margin -11)  Rare bright spot.

OAK @ MIA +3 PUSH 27 - 24 (Margin +3)  Thank goodness for a late 2 pointer.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Picks!  Nov 7 - Nov 13 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See previous post.

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Record: 5-7-3 (41.67 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 53-45-4 (54.1 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (10 weeks) 29-24-2 (54.7%) VERSUS SVP 33-30-1 (52.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (9 weeks):  24-21-2 (53.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  29 of 86 (33.7 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -19.0  (-1.9/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +539.0 (+53.9/week vs +55.8/week spread)

Last Second winners

Ga. Tech
Miss st
Convicts (aka Thug U)
La. Tech
Auburn

Take the points on all. Go!
Ski u mah!

NFL

BUF +3
MIN -1
JAX -3.5
DAL +3
SF +2.5

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-POST (kind of)

This is sort of a re-post to show the results of 2 weeks ago.  NCAA picks stay good, but NFL go bad a bit.  Point diff was extremely good though.

Theoretical bank is ($9,570) + $10,080 + $110 = $620.

Here's what happened last week.

Louisville @ Wake Forest +3 WIN 32 - 42 (Margin -10)  On the field.

Washington St. @ Arizona +2.5 WIN 37 - 58 (Margin -21)  On the field.

Appalachian St. @ Massachusetts +4.5 WIN 27 - 30 (2OT) (Margin -3)  On the field.

Louisiana Tech @ Rice +13 LOSS 42 - 28 (Margin +14)  So close to a 5-0 week.

Michigan St. @ Northwestern +2.5 WIN 31 - 39 (3OT) (Margin -8)  On the field.  Second OT game in a row for the Wildcats (foreshadow to next week...).

MIN -9.5 @ CLE (N) WIN 33 - 16 (Margin -17)  You sound like you're from London, Mate.

OAK @ BUF -2.5 WIN 14 - 34 (Margin -20)  Rare favorite winner.

ATL @ NYJ +4.5 LOSS 25 - 20 (Margin +5)  Doggone-it.

CAR @ TB -2  LOSS 17 - 3 (Margin +14)  Tampa sucks.

PIT @ DET +3 LOSS 20 - 15 (Margin +5)  Stupid Lions.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Picks!  Oct 31 - Nov 6 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See previous post.

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 48-38-1 (55.8 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (9 weeks) 25-20-0 (55.6%) VERSUS SVP 33-30-1 (52.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (8 weeks):  23-18-1 (56.1 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  27 of 72 (37.5 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -66.0  (-7.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +366.0 (+40.67/week vs +48.0/week spread)

Winners any way you want them.

Alright I don't have to post a big thing, but I will post my winners simply. Let's go 10 college picks instead.  Count 'em all. Winners.

Clemson @ NC State +7.5

Colorado +4 @ Arizona State

New Mexico St. @ Texas St. +10

Georgia St. @ Georgia So. +4

App. St. @ UL Monroe +9.5

Coastal Carolina +24 @ Arkansas

Wake Forest +14 @ Notre Dame

San Diego St. @ San Jose St. +23.5

Oregon St. +7.5 @ California

Stanford -1 @ Washington St.

LAR @ NYG +3.5

TB +7 @ NO

DEN +8.5 @ PHI

KC @ DAL +1

OAK @ MIA +3