Keep Your Oar in the Water

Absolute dumpster fire the last few weeks.  I suppose it's kind of like the stock market, it has a bit of a correction every now and then.  With that kind of thinking, I should go 5-0 in NCAAF this week.  On to the bank below, we're down $370 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($8,360) + $7,770 + $220 = $370.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Oklahoma @ TCU +8 LOSS 52 - 27 (Margin +25)  Dumpster fire.

Miami (Ohio) +8.5 @ Army WIN 30 - 31 (OT) (Margin +1)  Dumpster fire.

Utah State @ Wyoming +14.5 WIN 24 - 16 (Margin +8)  Dumpster fire.

Minnesota +5 @ Nebraska LOSS 28 - 53 (Margin +25)  Dumpster fire.

Kansas +18 @ Texas Tech LOSS 16 - 48 (Margin +32)  Dumpster fire.

MIN @ NYJ +3 LOSS 37 - 17 (Margin +20)  Dumpster fire.

NE @ CHI +3 LOSS 38 - 31 (Margin +7)  Dumpster fire.

NO @ BAL -2.5 LOSS 24 - 23 (Margin +1)  Dumpster fire.

LAR @ SF +9.5 LOSS 39 - 10 (Margin +29)  Dumpster fire.

CIN +6 @ KC LOSS 10 - 45 (Margin +35)  Dumpster fire.

I don't have clarity or confidence, I only have the system.  Just like Novocaine, just give it time, always works.  A rare two favorites in NCAA.... oh man this wreaks of disaster.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 picks!  Oct 23 - Oct 29 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Middle Tenn. St. @ Old Dominion +5

Purdue @ Michigan State +1

Duke @ Pittsburgh +2.5

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State -1

New Mexico State -1 @ Texas State

WAS @ NYG pick

TB +4.5 @ CIN 

IND @ OAK +3

GB @ LAR -9.5

NO pick @ MIN

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record: 2-8-0 (20.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 37-37-2 (50.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (8 weeks) 16-23-1 (41.03 %) VERSUS SVP 33-31-1 (51.56 %)
NFL 2018 Record (7 weeks):  21-14-1 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  15 of 66 (22.73 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +128.0  (+16.0/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +585.0 (+73.13/week vs +57.13/week spread)

Gambling, You're a Strange Animal

A bit of reversal last week.  College sucks again.  NFL had some head scratchers that should have been locks.  Chicago, I'm looking in your direction.  Two games destroyed the week's point differential and the overall point differential.  On to the bank below, we're up $310 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($7,260) + $7,350 + $220 = $310.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Iowa @ Indiana +3.5 LOSS 42 - 16 (Margin +26)  Look at those Hawkeyes surprising everyone.

Nebraska +3.5 @ Northwestern WIN 31 - 34 (OT) (Margin +3)  This was moving into bad beat territory as the Bugeaters blew a 10 point lead with less than 5 minutes to play including a 99 yard drive with around 1 minute left to tie the game.

Louisville +12 @ Boston College LOSS 20 - 38(Margin +18)  Louisville refused to score in the second half.

Texas A&M @ South Carolina +2.5 LOSS 26 - 23 (Margin +3)  The hook cost us on this one. Oh well.

Va. Tech @ North Carolina +7 WIN 22 - 19 (Margin +3)  Go Tar Heels.

CHI -3 @ MIA LOSS 28 - 31 (OT) (Margin +3)  Coming off a bye week, the "best" NFL defense gets a backup QB and since the line locks on Wed, it wasn't up to what Vegas moved it to on Sun AM (-7).  Don't worry, the Bears still lost outright in overtime.

LAC @ CLE +1 LOSS 38 - 14 (Margin +24)  Browns win a divisional game one week and get destroyed by the Chargers the next.

ARI +10 @ MIN PUSH 17 - 27 (Margin +10)  Push is a win.

SEA @ OAK +3 LOSS 27 - 3 (Margin +24)  I didn't realize this game was in London.  Stupid.  The Raiders are bad enough, they don't need to be stripped of what little home field advantage they get.

SF +9.5 @ GB WIN 30 - 33 (Margin +3)  Should have been an outright win.  NFL defense is a joke under 2 minutes.

Not much research done on these suckers.  Fading public if the % of bets was higher than 70 and the spread didn't move.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 picks!  Oct 16 - Oct 22 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Oklahoma @ TCU +8

Miami (Ohio) +8.5 @ Army

Utah State @ Wyoming +14.5

Minnesota +5 @ Nebraska

Kansas +18 @ Texas Tech

MIN @ NYJ +3

NE @ CHI +3 

NO @ BAL -2.5

LAR @ SF +9.5

CIN +6 @ KC

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Record: 3-6-1 (33.33 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 35-29-2 (54.69 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (7 weeks) 14-20-1 (41.18 %) VERSUS SVP 29-26-1 (52.73 %)
NFL 2018 Record (6 weeks):  21-9-1 (70.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  15 of 57 (26.32 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +18.0  (+2.57/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +402.0 (+57.43/week vs +54.86/week spread)

Oh Man, These Are Ugly Games

Tough break on a couple last week. Looks like I should have taken the Gators and Bulldogs.  On to the bank below, we're up $670 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($6,160) + $6,720 + $110 = $670.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Tulane +7.5 @ Cincinnati LOSS 21 - 37 (Margin +16) Bearcats aren't even real (right?).

Northwestern @ Michigan State -10 LOSS 29 - 19 (Margin +10)  Must have read the line wrong.  Thanks a lot for showing up, Sparty.

Northern Illinios @ Ball State +3 LOSS 24 - 16 (Margin +8)  Well crap.

Kansas State +4.5 @ Baylor WIN 34 - 37 (Margin +3)  A step in the correct direction.

Ohio @ Kent State +12.5 WIN 27 - 26 (Margin +1) Golden Flashes helping the cause.

BAL @ CLE +3 WIN 9 - 12 (Margin -3)  Browns winning on the field in division versus elite QB Joe Flacco?!

NYG +7 @ CAR WIN 31 - 33 (Margin +2)  Free yards time for Scam after a great effort by Eli.  Where's the D?

GB @ DET +1 WIN 23 - 31 (Margin -8)  I love when Aaron Rodgers loses.  Wipe that smug look right off his face.

MIN @ PHI -3 LOSS 21 - 23 (Margin +2)  Strange when I take favorites that don't even win the game outright.  Trends didn't show much on this game.

LAR @ SEA +7 WIN 33 - 31 (Margin +2)  Seattle nearly pulled this one out also.  Would have been nice for the NFC.

Nearly ran out of time to give out these dandies.  Take them all to the bank! Tease 'em, parlay them all, and take the money line on all of them also.  Just go crazy folks.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 picks!  Oct 9 - Oct 15 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Iowa @ Indiana +3.5 

Nebraska +3.5 @ Northwestern

Louisville +12 @ Boston College

Texas A&M @ South Carolina +2.5

Va. Tech @ North Carolina +7

CHI -3 @ MIA

LAC @ CLE +1

ARI +10 @ MIN

SEA @ OAK +3

SF +9.5 @ GB

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Record: 6-4-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 32-23-1 (58.18 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (6 weeks) 12-17-1 (41.38 %) VERSUS SVP 23-23-1 (50.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (5 weeks):  20-6-0 (76.92 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  15 of 48 (31.25 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -50.0  (-8.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +285.0 (+47.50/week vs +55.83/week spread)

Diamonds Are Forever - So Is Ric Flair

The NFL winners keep us afloat again.  First time not beating the spread overall, but that was due to two big blowouts and it was still close.  The last week "almost" picks were also not good.  Buffalo,  Ole Miss, Toledo, and Clemson were all big losers (HUGE).  Ball State and Louisiana Tech were big winners  That's a 2-4 unofficial winners record.  Ugly.  Probably should stop doing those.  On to the bank below, we're up $510 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($5,060) + $5,460 + $110 = $510.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Pittsburgh +13.5 @ Central Florida LOSS 14 - 45 (Margin +31) Scotty Frost wants to take back his decision to leave UCF.

Massachusetts +13.5 @ Ohio LOSS 42 - 58 (Margin +16)  Guess I should have taken the over.

Oklahoma State @ Kansas +17 LOSS 48 - 28 (Margin +20)  Well at the least this and the last one weren't blowouts.

BYU @ Washington -17 WIN 7 - 35 (Margin -28)  That's a helluva spread for two "top" 25 teams.

Ohio State @ Penn State +3.5 WIN 27 - 26 (Margin +1) PSU should have won this outright.

CIN +5 @ ATL WIN 37 - 36 (Margin -1)  My goodness does anyone in the NFL play defense?  Or should I ask, is anyone in the NFL ALLOWED to play defense?  Answer: No.

NYJ +7.5 @ JAX LOSS 12 - 31 (Margin +19)  Oh well, can't win 'em all every week.

PHI @ TEN +4 WIN 23 - 26 (OT) (Margin -3)  Gotta be a record for most OT games in the first 4 weeks of the season.  Also you don't often see teams scoring a TD to overcome a FG in OT.  Didn't matter to me as long as the Titans didn't throw a pick six in OT.

HOU +1 @ IND WIN 37 - 34 (OT) (Margin -3)  Speaking of OT and weird OT things, the OT in this game featured three FGs!

KC @ DEN +5 WIN 27 - 23 (Margin +4)  Winner.

I have some real doozies this week that I'm sure everyone will LOVE.  I really like Florida and Mississippi State also, but whatever.  Those below are going 5-0.  Is that a rhyme? Or 3-2. That's all I really want.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 picks!  Oct 2 - Oct 8 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Tulane +7.5 @ Cincinnati 

Northwestern @ Michigan State -10

Northern Illinios @ Ball State +3

Kansas State +4.5 @ Baylor

Ohio @ Kent State +12.5

BAL @ CLE +3

NYG +7 @ CAR

GB @ DET +1

MIN @ PHI -3

LAR @ SEA +7

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Record: 6-4-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 26-19-1 (57.78 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (5 weeks) 10-14-1 (41.67 %) VERSUS SVP 18-19-0 (48.65 %)
NFL 2018 Record (4 weeks):  16-5-0 (76.19 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  13 of 40 (32.50 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -50.5  (-10.10/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +252.0 (+50.40/week vs +60.50/week spread)