Hockey News! Special Edition Vol: 3.40

This is the 92th posting of the news articles from the Beer and Pretzel Hockey League written by the beat writer that covers the league.  He calls himself Dickie Dunn - his true identity is unknown.

Greetings hockey fans and welcome to another foolhardy article of Hockey News BPHL: Special Edition Vol: 3.40.  Silver and White got together for the first of their three final contests in the regular season this past Monday.  Silver had a full lineup of three lines and they were bangin' from the start.  It was three - rip within the first three minutes, but White did not give in getting the game back to 3 - 2 before Silver opened the flood gates.  The final score finished at 9 - 2.

PRESTIGIOUS LA ROSS SILVER HELMET MEMORIAL TROPHY
Photo credit L.B. Jeffries
Griff Watson - 1 W, 2 GA, 39 SV, 8 Silver Bullets

The PLARSHMT & OBMASLF (and Faceoff Chain) were awarded to Griff Watson for his stellar 2 GA performance in net.  Fresh off an Ag Silver Spotlight feature, he was primed for an excellent performance.  The game also marked a return to the lineup for Evans and Staiger after extended absences due to flu-like symptoms.  Bednarz was cured of snakebite during the game and got on the score sheet with a wicked short side snipe and also added a helper.  

Don't forget to check out the archives of all your favorite Hockey News! articles that really capture the spirit of the thing over at the main blog site www.ddunnwrotethis.blogspot.com.  Keep in mind that the perfect accessory for the man in your life, is a season ticket to Silver team's games.

Stars of the Game

1)  Griff Watson

2)  Zach Voss

3)  Paul Bednarz

Silver is back in action Thursday, 01 April at RALSTON Arena at 7:00 PM.  Silver and Gold meet for the final regular season PRECIOUS METALS game.  Silver had an earth-shattering comeback win in a shootout in the last PRECIOUS METALS game. Silver looks to end the season series with Gold as they did the 2020 season - with a win so devastating, that it had Gold players contemplating retirement.  It is free lottery ticket night give away at the War Memorial - 1,000 free powerball tickets with guaranteed winners given to every fan, NO PURCHASE REQUIRED!  Come on down to the Ralston Arena, bring the kids!  We've got entertainment for the whole family.

Remember, Dickie Dunn wrote this, so it's gotta be true

Gambling Corner
Since 2/14/19:
Silver ATS 58-33-1
Silver Money Line (as favorite) 29-11-0
Silver Money Line (as underdog) 14-38-0
Silver Games O/U 45-46-1

Silver Wins Final 17 Reg. Season Games (2020-21) O/U 7.5 - Record 7-5-0

Silver/White Recap

Silver +1.5 (-110)

White -1.5 (+150)

Over 10.5 (-110)
Under 10.5 (-110)

Silver +115

White -145

PRECIOUS METALS GAME 9 Odds

Silver +1.5 (-175)

Gold -1.5 (+160)

Over 19.5 (-110)
Under 19.5 (-110)

Silver +105

Gold -115

Silver Key Players/Trends/Injuries: Harris (always #1 key), Bednarz 1 game G streak.  9-1-0 ATS last 10.  Staiger (DTD with vaccination complications).

Gold Key Players/Trends/Injuries:  Wang, Satan, Strackholm.  0-0-1 last game against Silver.  0-1-0 in final regular season games against Silver in last 1 season.  Slattery (OUT with LBI - Tate to step in as emergency backup).

2019 Final Results

Really soft finish after being up most of the season. The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical Bank finished down ($200) = $13,440 + $110 + ($13,750).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of last two weeks of the season.

Oklahoma State @ West Virgina +6 LOSS 20 - 13 (Margin +7)

Pittsburgh +3.5 @ Va. Tech LOSS 0 - 28 (Margin +28)

Houston +3 @ Tulsa WIN 24 - 14 (Margin -10)

Nebraska @ Maryland +6 LOSS 54 - 7 (Margin +47)

South Alabama +11 @ Georgia State LOSS 15 - 28 (Margin +13)

TB +4.5 @ ATL WIN 35 - 22 (Margin -13)

JAX +3 @ TEN LOSS 20 - 42 (Margin +22)

DET @ WAS +3.5 WIN 16 - 19 (Margin -3)

SEA @ PHI -2 LOSS 17 - 9 (Margin +8)

BAL @ LAR +3 LOSS 45 - 6 (Margin +39)

Indiana @ Purdue +7 WIN 44 - 41 (2OT) (Margin +3)  Boiler up to cover town.

Wake Forest @ Syracuse +4 WIN 30 - 39 (OT) (Margin -9)  On the field - hard to get 9 points in a single OT.

Alabama @ Auburn +3.5 WIN 45 - 48 (Margin -3)  On the field in the Iron Bowl.

Wisconsin @ Minnesota +3 LOSS 38 - 17 (Margin +21)  Game day flop.

Baylor @ Kansas +14 LOSS 61 - 6 (Margin +55)  Kills the point diff.

TB @ JAX +2.5 LOSS 28 - 11 (Margin +17)  Whatevs.

TEN +2.5 @ IND WIN 31 - 17 (Margin -14)  On the field.

NYJ @ CIN +3 WIN 6 - 22 (Margin -16)  On the field.

GB @ NYG +6.5 LOSS 31 - 13 (Margin +18)  Whatevs.

NE @ HOU +3.5 WIN 22 - 28 (Margin -6)  On the field.

MIN +3 @ SEA LOSS 30 - 37 (Margin +7)  Prime time Kirk.

Here is a breakdown of the 2019 season.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 6-5-0 (54.55 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 64-61-1 (51.20 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (12 weeks) 29-31-0 (48.33 %)
NFL 2019 Record (13 weeks):  35-30-1 (55.56 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  41 of 100 (41.00 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:    -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:    -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:    -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:    52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:    -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5 ONLY:        -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6 ONLY:        -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:    18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:    -81.5 with spread.  -76 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:    -21.0 with spread.  +35 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:    -28.5 with spread.  -32 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:    +74.0 with spread.  +140 straight up.

NFL12/NCAA13:    +96.5 with spread.  +138.0 straight up.

NFL13/NCAA14:    +6.5 with spread.  +59.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -62.00  (-4.43/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +407.00 (+29.07/week vs +33.50/week spread)

Holiday Quick Post

Indiana @ Purdue +7

Wake Forest @ Syracuse +4

Alabama @ Auburn +3.5

Wisconsin @ Minnesota +3

Baylor @ Kansas +14

TB @ JAX +2.5

TEN +2.5 @ IND

NYJ @ CIN +3

GB @ NYG +6.5

NE @ HOU +3.5

MIN +3 @ SEA

Yikes!

Not much to say about last week.  We're on to Cincinnati.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $110 = $11,550 + $110 + ($11,550).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of last week.

Florida @ Missouri +7  LOSS 23 - 6 (Margin +17)  Not good.

Alabama @ Mississippi State +19 LOSS 38 - 7 (Margin +31)  Worse.

Va. Tech @ Ga. Tech +6 LOSS 0 - 39 (Margin +39)  Oh my.

Georgia @ Auburn +3 LOSS 21 - 14 (Margin +7)  Nope.

Louisville @ North Carolina State +4 LOSS 34 - 24 (Margin +10)  Keep it coming.

DEN +10.5 @ MIN WIN 23 - 27 (Margin +4)  First win of week 11.

HOU +4 @ BAL LOSS 7 - 41 (Margin +34)  Are the Ravens for real?

ATL +5.5 @ CAR WIN 29 - 3 (Margin -26)  Well that was the surprise of the week.

NE @ PHI +3.5 LOSS 17 - 10 (Margin +7)  Cripes.

KC @ LAC +3.5 LOSS 24 - 17 (Margin +7)  No bueno.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 picks!  Nov 19 - Nov 25 WINNERS!

Oklahoma State @ West Virgina +6

Pittsburgh +3.5 @ Va. Tech

Houston +3 @ Tulsa

Nebraska @ Maryland +6

South Alabama +11 @ Georgia State

TB +4.5 @ ATL

JAX +3 @ TEN

DET @ WAS +3.5

SEA @ PHI -2

BAL @ LAR +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 2-8-0 (20.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 55-49-1 (52.88 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (12 weeks) 25-25-0 (50.00 %) VERSUS SVP 41-49  (45.56 %)
NFL 2019 Record (11 weeks):  30-24-1 (55.56 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  33 of 80 (41.25 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -81.5 with spread.  -76 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  -21.0 with spread.  +35 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -28.5 with spread.  -32 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  +74.0 with spread.  +140 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -165.00  (-13.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +210.00 (+17.50/week vs +31.25/week spread)

These Lines STINK!

Just above the "winning" threshold percent this week - can't complain, but trust me, I will.  I've just thought of something maybe I should explain.  When I make the comment "On the field," it is referring to the team being an underdog and winning outright.... on the field.  Not sure if the faithful readers picked up on that, but I've used it essentially any time the underdog has won outright (which is about 45.71% of the time that I wager on them).  As I've mentioned before, probably should just start MONEYLINING THEM ALL.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $790 = $11,130 + $110 + ($10,450).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of last week.

Purdue @ Northwestern -2  LOSS 24 - 22 (Margin +2)  Remind me again why I take favorites.

Stanford @ Colorado +3.5 WIN 13 - 16 (Margin -3)  On the field.

Wake Forest @ Va. Tech +2 WIN 17 - 36 (Margin -19)  On the field!

Illinios @ Michigan State -14.5 LOSS 37 - 34 (Margin +3)  This is the one to complain about.  The most ridiculous lines of the season have come for Sparty.  This was so horrible it had to be right - and it was for 3 quarters when Sparty was up 21 points.  Taking the loss ATS I can obviously understand if not expect, but to be on the losing end the biggest comeback in Illinois school history is just dumb.

Georgia State @ Louisiana Monroe +2.5 WIN 31 - 45 (Margin -14)  Another on the field victory.

BUF @ CLE -3 PUSH 16 - 19 (Margin -3)  First push of the season in week 10.

LAR @ PIT +3.5 WIN 12 - 17 (Margin -5)  What has happened to the LAR?

CAR +5 @ GB LOSS 16 - 24 (Margin +8)  Literally inches from covering this on the last play of the game.

KC -3.5 @ TEN LOSS 32 - 35 (Margin +3)  Chefs burn me two weeks in a row.

MIN +3 @ DAL WIN 28 - 24 (Margin -4)  So Dallas must be a mediocre team or the Vikes wouldn't be able to handle them in a "prime time" game.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 picks!  Nov 12 - Nov 18 WINNERS!

Florida @ Missouri +7

Alabama @ Mississippi State +19

Va. Tech @ Ga. Tech +6

Georgia @ Auburn +3

Louisville @ North Carolina State +4

DEN +10.5 @ MIN

HOU +4 @ BAL

ATL +5.5 @ CAR

NE @ PHI +3.5

KC @ LAC +3.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 5-4-1 (55.56 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 53-41-1 (56.38 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (11 weeks) 25-20-0 (55.56 %) VERSUS SVP 39-46  (45.88 %)
NFL 2019 Record (10 weeks):  28-21-1 (57.14 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  32 of 70 (45.71 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -81.5 with spread.  -76 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  -21.0 with spread.  +35 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -28.5 with spread.  -32 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -239.00  (-21.73/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +70.00 (+6.36/week vs +28.09/week spread)

I'm Not Gonna Lie, There Have Been Some Reversals

The NCAA decided to put me back in my place last week  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $730 = $10,080 + $0 + ($9,350).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of last week.

Akron +6 @ Bowling Green  LOSS 6 - 35 (Margin +29)  Zips really stunk this one up.

Mississippi State @ Arkansas +7.5 LOSS 54 - 24 (Margin +30)  Just destroying the point diff this week.

UNLV @ Colorado State +7.5 WIN 17 - 37 (Margin -20)  On the field!

Marshall @ Rice +11.5 LOSS 20 - 7 (Margin +13)  Close loss.

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech +8 LOSS 20 - 10 (Margin +10)  Another close loss.

TEN +3.5 @ CAR LOSS 20 - 30 (Margin +10)  Needed that backdoor TD cover.

NYJ @ MIA +3 WIN 18 - 26 (Margin -8)  Fish with first win ON THE FIELD.

GB @ LAC +3.5 WIN 11 - 26 (Margin -15)  Kind of a stinker and everyone on the Pack.  Chargers ON THE FIELD.

KC @ MIN +2.5 LOSS 23 - 26 (Margin +3)  Such a poorly executed offensive game for the Vikings who ended up being favored by 5 once Mahomes was ruled out.  Loser either way.

NE @ BAL +3 WIN 20 - 37 (Margin -17)  This was a bit fishy also.  Hard to bet against Brady and the Pats, but if you don't trust your own system, where does that put you? This week it would have been in the LOSS column.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 picks!  Nov 5 - Nov 11 WINNERS!

Purdue @ Northwestern -2

Stanford @ Colorado +3.5

Wake Forest @ Va. Tech +2

Illinios @ Michigan State -14.5

Georgia State @ Louisiana Monroe +2.5

BUF @ CLE -3

LAR @ PIT +3.5

CAR +5 @ GB

KC -3.5 @ TEN

MIN +3 @ DAL

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Record: 4-6-0 (40.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 48-37-0 (53.47 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (10 weeks) 22-18-0 (55.00 %) VERSUS SVP 36-40  (47.37 %)
NFL 2019 Record (9 weeks):  26-19-0 (57.78 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  27 of 64 (42.19 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -81.5 with spread.  -76 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  -21.0 with spread.  +35 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -210.50  (-21.05/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +102.00 (+10.20/week vs +31.25/week spread)

Heating Up!

After a banner week 8 I need to take a step back and reflect.  Let's keep it humble here.  I feel like I should be money lining on all the underdogs, now hitting at a 42.59% winning clip.  If the average money line is +150, then a 40% winning clip will break even.  Currently it would be an additional $350 with $100 money line bets (23 of 54) for this season using those odds.  Just something to think about!  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $990 = $9,240 + $0 + ($8,250).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of last week.

Ohio +2.5 @ Ball State  WIN 34 - 21 (Margin -13)  On the field!

Virginia @ Louisville +3.5 WIN 21 - 28 (Margin -7)  On the field.

Texas @ TCU +1.5 WIN 27 - 37 (Margin -10)  On the field?

Penn State @ Michigan State +5.5 LOSS 28 - 7 (Margin +21)  This was the most ridiculous line of the year.  Sparty had to be right side - otherwise why on earth put yourself at the risk of every dope in America crushing the Penn State side (line still went down to 4 before kick-off).

South Carolina @ Tennessee +4.5 WIN 21 - 41 (Margin -20)  On the field.

WAS @ MIN -16 LOSS 9 - 19 (Margin -10)  I hate having to pick games with these kind of spreads.

DEN +5.5 @ IND WIN 13 - 15 (Margin +2)  Should have won outright.

TB @ TEN -2.5 WIN 23 - 27 (Margin -4)  Everybody was on Tampa in this one.

OAK +6.5 @ HOU WIN 24 - 27 (Margin +3)  Should have won outright.  Gotta love it when you hate a bet so much and it wins.  That's the true system at work.

CAR @ SF -5.5 WIN 13 - 51 (Margin -38)  Oh my didn't see this blowout coming.  A win, sure. A cover, sure.  A complete annihilation? No chance.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 picks!  Oct 29 - Nov 4 WINNERS!

Akron +6 @ Bowling Green

Mississippi State @ Arkansas +7.5

UNLV @ Colorado State +7.5

Marshall @ Rice +11.5

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech +8

TEN +3.5 @ CAR

NYJ @ MIA +3

GB @ LAC +3.5

MIN +2.5 @ KC

NE @ BAL +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 8-2-0 (80.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 44-31-0 (58.67 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (9 weeks) 21-14-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 35-34  (50.72 %)
NFL 2019 Record (8 weeks):  23-17-0 (57.50 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  23 of 54 (42.59 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -81.5 with spread.  -76 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -189.50  (-21.06/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +67.00 (+7.44/week vs +28.50/week spread)

I Still Want WINNERS

Solid week 7 staying in the BLACK.  Let's hope the student athletes don't ruin it this week.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $410 = $7,560 + $0 + ($7,150).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of NFL Week 7.

ARI +3 @ NYG  WIN 27 - 21 (Margin -6)  On the field!

MIN -1 @ DET WIN 42 - 30 (Margin -12)  Not sure how they gave up 30, but a win's a win's a win.

SF @ WAS +9.5 WIN 9 - 0 (Margin +0.5)  Shutouts covering spreads?

LAR @ ATL +3 LOSS 37 - 10 (Margin +27)  This line stunk so bad, had to try it out.

NO @ CHI -3.5 LOSS 36 - 25 (Margin +11)  Vegas continues to undervalue Saints, public wins again.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 picks!  Oct 22 - Oct 28 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ohio +2.5 @ Ball State

Virginia @ Louisville +3.5

Texas @ TCU +1.5

Penn State @ Michigan State +5.5

South Carolina @ Tennessee +4.5

WAS @ MIN -16

DEN +5.5 @ IND

TB @ TEN -2.5

OAK +6.5 @ HOU

CAR @ SF -5.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 36-29-0 (55.38 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (8 weeks) 17-13-0 (56.67 %) VERSUS SVP 30-31  (49.18 %)
NFL 2019 Record (7 weeks):  19-16-0 (54.29 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  19 of 47 (40.43 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -108.00  (-13.50/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +143.00 (+17.88/week vs +31.88/week spread)

Things Are Happening

Good week 6 but again ran out of time for NCAAF so all NFL again in week 7.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $330 = $6,930 + $0 + ($6,600).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of NFL Week 6.

PHI @ MIN -3  WIN 20 - 38 (Margin -18)  Skol Bikes!

NO @ JAX -1.5 LOSS 13 - 6 (Margin +7)  Well I guess it's time to stop betting against Teddy.

HOU +4.5 @ KC WIN 31 - 24 (Margin -7)  On the field.

DAL @ NYJ +7 WIN 22 - 24 (Margin -2)  On the field.

DET +4 @ GB WIN 22 - 23 (Margin +1)  Should have been on the field but true to form, the Fudge Pack got some GAME ALTERING calls to secure the win.

Here are your 2019 NFL Week 7 picks!  Oct 15 - Oct 21 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

SEE POST HERE

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Record: 4-1-0 (80.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 33-27-0 (55.00 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (7 weeks) 17-13-0 (56.67 %) VERSUS SVP 27-25  (51.92 %)
NFL 2019 Record (6 weeks):  16-14-0 (53.33 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  18 of 44 (40.91 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -126.00  (-18.00/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +114.00 (+16.29/week vs +34.29/week spread)

Quick Post 3

Last couple Fridays have been busy so I haven't had time to find NCAAF winners, but here are some NFL picks.

ARI +3 @ NYG

MIN -1 @ DET

SF @ WAS +9.5

LAR @ ATL +3

NO @ CHI -3.5

Hang In There!

Not the best week, but you can't win them all.  Baseball is over - at least for my team, so it's time to focus on the WINNERS!  Couldn't get the NCAAF picks in - ran out of time so all NFL this week.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $40 = $6,090 + $0 + ($6,050).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of NCAAF Week 6/NFL Week 5.

TCU +3.5 @ Iowa State  LOSS 24 - 49 (Margin +25)  Cripes!

Auburn @ Florida +3 WIN 13 - 24 (Margin -11)  Let's GOOOOOOOO!

Arkansas State @ Georgia State +7 WIN 38 - 52 (Margin -14)  On the field.

Liberty @ New Mexico State +4 LOSS 20 - 13 (Margin +7)  Fumbled inside the 10 yard line on the last possession.

San Diego State @ Colorado State +8 LOSS 24 - 10 (Margin +14)  Altitude didn't get to the Aztecs.

ARI @ CIN -3 LOSS 26 - 23 (Margin +3) The BENGALS suck.

MIN -5.5 @ NYG WIN 28 - 10 (Margin -18) Check out those stats for Cousins for a noon game vs a mediocre opponent following a primetime loss.

TB +3.5 @ NO LOSS 24 - 31 (Margin +7)  Teddy Two Gloves is for real (I don't know - did he play in this game)?

GB @ DAL -3.5 LOSS 34 - 24 (Margin +10) That is just a ridiculously poor effort.

CLE @ SF -3.5 WIN 3 - 31 (Margin -28) Are the 49ers for real also?

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 picks!  Oct 8 - Oct 14 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

PHI @ MIN -3

NO @ JAX -1.5

HOU +4.5 @ KC

DAL @ NYJ +7

DET +4 @ GB

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Record: 4-6-0 (40.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 29-26-0 (52.73 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (6 weeks) 17-13-0 (56.67 %) VERSUS SVP 20-24  (45.45 %)
NFL 2019 Record (5 weeks):  12-13-0 (48.00 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  16 of 41 (39.02 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -96.00  (-16.00/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +133.00 (+22.17/week vs +38.17/week spread)

This Is How We Do It

As I was saying - NFL is much easier to handicap.  You can't trust those kids to do anything out there!  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is ($4,950) + $5,250 + $0 = $300.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss).

Here's a summary of NCAAF Week 5/NFL Week 4.

BYU @ Toledo +2.5  WIN 21 - 28 (Margin -7)  On the field!

Minnesota -1.5 @ Purdue WIN 38 - 31 (Margin -7)  Gophers going 8-0 to start the season?

Georgia Tech +9 @ Temple LOSS 2 - 24 (Margin +22)  Okay.....

New Mexico +7.5 @ Liberty WIN 10 - 17 (Margin +7)  Backdoor cover winner.

UL Lafayette @ Georgia Southern +3 LOSS 37 - 24 (Margin +13)  Take notice of the Ragin' Cajuns?

NE @ BUF +7 WIN 16 - 10 (Margin +6) Bills Mafia couldn't quite take down TB12.

KC @ DET +6.5 WIN 24 - 27 (Margin +3) Lions had this won on the field until they gave up a 100 yard fumble return TD.  To that I say SKOL BIKES.

CAR +4.5 @ HOU WIN 16 - 10 (Margin -6)  On the FIELD!

MIN +1.5 @ CHI LOSS 6 - 16 (Margin +10) Figure it out Cousins!

DAL @ NO +2.5 WIN 10 - 12 (Margin -2) Teddy BUSTwater wins two in a row.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 picks!  Oct 1 - Oct 7 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See post here

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Record: 7-3-0 (70.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 25-20-0 (55.56 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (5 weeks) 15-10-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 18-20  (47.37 %)
NFL 2019 Record (4 weeks):  10-10-0 (50.00 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  14 of 35 (40.00 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -77.50  (-15.50/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +138.00 (+27.60/week vs +43.10/week spread)

That's Much More Like It!

Not that I relish losing in NCAAF betting, but I just like it to be consistent.  Using betting trends to predict winners is MUCH easier and consistent in the NFL - because they have real injury reports AND because they are professionals.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is ($3,850) + $3,780 + $0 = ($70).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss).

Here's a summary of NCAAF Week 4/NFL Week 3.

Michigan +3.5 @ Wisconsin  LOSS 14 - 35 (Margin +21)  Let's go BLUE? Yikes!

Boston College @ Rutgers +7.5 LOSS 30 - 16 (Margin +14)  Never again, Rutgers.

Western Michigan +4.5 @ Syracuse LOSS 33 - 52 (Margin +19)  Oh well.

Washington @ BYU +7 LOSS 45 - 19 (Margin +26)  Talk about your let downs at home.

Oregon @ Stanford +11 LOSS 21 - 6 (Margin 15)  Four out of five home dog losses ATS.

OAK @ MIN -8.5 WIN 14 - 34 (Margin -20) Cousins is HOFer at home for noon games against mediocre teams after prime time road loss.

ATL @ IND -1.5 WIN 24 - 27 (Margin -3) Superbowl hangover for Falcons is lasting a long time.

NO +4 @ SEA WIN 33 - 27 (Margin -6)  Backup QB on the road against the 12th man is only getting 4 points?  That line stunk real bad.

HOU @ LAC -3 LOSS 27 - 20 (Margin +7) Figure it out Rivers.

LAR @ CLE +3 LOSS 20 - 13 (Margin +7) Four incomplete passes from the four yard line to lose the game.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 picks!  Sep 24 - Sep 30 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See post here

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Record: 3-7-0 (30.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 18-17-0 (51.43 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (4 weeks) 12-8-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 14-15  (48.28 %)
NFL 2019 Record (3 weeks):  6-9-0 (40.00 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  11 of 26 (42.31 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -75.00  (-18.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +98.00 (+24.50/week vs +43.25/week spread)

QUICK POST 2!

Again, I'll post a recap later.  Here are some picks you're guaranteed to hate!


TCU +3.5 @ Iowa State

Auburn @ Florida +3

Arkansas State @ Georgia State +7

Liberty @ New Mexico State +4

San Diego State @ Colorado State +8

ARI @ CIN -3

MIN -5.5 @ NYG

TB +3.5 @ NO

GB @ DAL -3.5

CLE @ SF -3.5

Quick Post

Last week was ugly all around. Let's just leave it at that.  I'll post a recap later.  Here are some picks you're guaranteed to hate!


BYU @ Toledo +2.5

Minnesota -1.5 @ Purdue

Georgia Tech +9 @ Temple

New Mexico +7.5 @ Liberty

UL Lafayette @ Georgia Southern +3

NE @ BUF +7

KC @ DET +6.5

CAR +4.5 @ HOU

MIN +1.5 @ CHI

DAL @ NO +2.5

The Strangeness Continues

Complete opposite of normal operation here last week - AGAIN.  Pulled a near perfect NCAA week and went horribly in NFL.  I'll blame Vegas for not knowing ANYTHING about 90% of the teams going to week 2.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is ($2,750) + $3,150 + $0 = $400.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss).

Here's a summary of last week.

Maryland @ Temple +7  WIN 17 - 20 (Margin -3)  On the field.

NC State @ West Virginia +7 WIN 27 - 44 (Margin -17)  On the field.

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa +14 LOSS 40 - 21(Margin +19)  Oh well.

USC at BYU +4 WIN 27 - 30 (2OT) (Margin -3)  On the field.

Texas Tech @ Arizona +2.5 WIN 14 - 28 (Margin -14)  On the field.  That's nearly a dream week.

LAC @ DET +2.5 WIN 10  - 13 (Margin -3) On the field.

KC @ OAK +7 LOSS 28 - 10 (Margin +18) Well they looked okay for a minute.

MIN +3 @ GB LOSS 16 - 21 (Margin +5) Thanks Kirk.

JAX @ HOU -9 LOSS 12 - 13 (Margin -1) Vegas is losing a shit ton of money on the NFL.

CLE -2.5 @ NYJ WIN 23 - 3 (Margin -20) Browns forgot about week 1.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 picks!  Sep 17 - Sep 23 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Michigan +3.5 @ Wisconsin

Boston College @ Rutgers +7.5

Western Michigan +4.5 @ Syracuse

Washington @ BYU +7

Oregon @ Stanford +11

OAK @ MIN -8.5

ATL @ IND -1.5

NO +4 @ SEA

HOU @ LAC -3

LAR @ CLE +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 6-4-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 15-10-0 (60.00 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (3 weeks) 12-3-0 (80.00 %) VERSUS SVP 10-11  (47.62 %)
NFL 2019 Record (2 weeks):  3-7-0 (30.00 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  10 of 19 (52.63 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -127.5  (-42.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +18.0 (+6.00/week vs +48.50/week spread)

Well That Was Interesting

Complete opposite of normal operation here last week.  Pulled a perfect NCAA week and went horribly in NFL.  I'll blame Vegas for not knowing ANYTHING about 90% of the teams going to week 1.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is ($1,650) + $1,890 + $0 = $240.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss).

Here's a summary of last week.

Northern Illinois +22 @ Utah  WIN 17 - 35 (Margin +18)  Don't sleep on the Huskies.

South Florida +6.5 @ Georgia Tech WIN 10 - 14 (Margin +4)  Good work.

Nebraska @ Colorado +4.5 WIN 31 - 34 (OT) (Margin -3)  On the field.

San Diego State +8 @ UCLA WIN 23 - 14 (Margin -9)  On the field.  I wish every week was like this.

Miami (FL) @ North Carolina +5 WIN 25 - 28 (Margin -3)  On the field.  That's a dream week.

LAR @ CAR +2.5 LOSS 30 - 27 (Margin +3) Close but no cigar.

KC @ JAX +3.5 LOSS 40 - 26 (Margin +14) Thanks for the 1st quarter Nick.

ATL @ MIN -4 WIN 12 - 28 (Margin -16) Skol BIKES.

SF @ TB (Pick) LOSS 31 - 17 (Margin +14) Jameis has one year left? Probably less.

DEN (Pick) @ OAK LOSS 16 - 24 (Margin +8) Cancer free, the Raiders thrive!

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 picks!  Sep 10 - Sep 16 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Maryland @ Temple +7

NC State @ West Virginia +7

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa +14

USC at BYU +4

Texas Tech @ Arizona +2.5

LAC @ DET +2.5

KC @ OAK +7

MIN +3 @ GB

JAX @ HOU -9

CLE -2.5 @ NYJ

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 6-4-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 9-6-0 (60.00 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (2 weeks) 8-2-0 (80.00 %) VERSUS SVP 7-6  (53.85 %)
NFL 2019 Record (1 weeks):  1-4-0 (20.00 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  5 of 11 (45.46 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -73.0  (-36.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +37.0 (+18.50/week vs +55.00/week spread)

And We're Off and Running

Solid start to the 2019 season going 3-2 in the somewhat risky NCAAF week 1.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is ($550) + $630 + $0 = $80.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss).

Here's a summary of last week.

E. Michigan @ Coastal Carolina +6  LOSS 30 - 23 (Margin +7)  Chants failed me.

Northwestern @ Stanford -6 WIN 7 - 17 (Margin -10)  A rare favorite comes in as a winner.

Georgia @ Vanderbilt +22.5 LOSS 30 - 6 (Margin +24)  That sucks.

Missouri @ Wyoming +17 WIN 31 - 37 (Margin -6)  Double digit dog straight up winner.

Georgia State +22.5 @ Tennessee WIN 38 - 30 (Margin -8)  Have a good season Vols, it was fun while it lasted.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 picks!  Sep 3 - Sep 9 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Northern Illinois +22 @ Utah

South Florida +6.5 @ Georgia Tech

Nebraska @ Colorado +4.5

San Diego State +8 @ UCLA

Miami (FL) @ North Carolina +5

LAR @ CAR +2.5

KC @ JAX +3.5

ATL @ MIN -4

SF @ TB (Pick)

DEN (Pick) @ OAK

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (1 week) 3-2-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 2-3 (40.00 %)
NFL 2019 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0 (0.00 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  2 of 4 (50.00 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -55.0 with spread.  +7.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -55.0  (-55.0/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +7.0 (+7.00/week vs +62.0/week spread)

2018 Season Recap and NCAA Week 1 WINNER$ (We're BACK BABY)

Finished last year barely losing money because of a 1-4 finish in week 17.  What a joke!  Remember the bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($17,270) + $16,800 + $330 = ($140).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of the last week of the 2018 season.

PHI @ WAS +6.5  LOSS 28 - 0 (Margin +28)  Way to show up Skins.

DET +8 @ GB WIN 31 - 0 (Margin -31)  Well that was unexpected but who doesn't love it when the Packers get shut out?

LAC @ DEN +6.5 LOSS 23 - 9 (Margin +14)  That sucks.

CHI @ MIN -4.5 LOSS 24 - 10 (Margin +14)  Way to lay an egg Cousins.  What an offensive line they had.

IND @ TEN +3 LOSS 33 - 17 (Margin +16)  You'd think they had something to play for and come out to win, but no.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 1 picks!  Aug 31 - Sep 2 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

E. Michigan @ Coastal Carolina +6

Northwestern @ Stanford -6

Georgia @ Vanderbilt +22.5

Missouri @ Wyoming +17

Georgia State +22.5 @ Tennessee

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 18/NFL Week 17 Record: 1-4-0 (20.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 80-74-3 (51.95 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (14 weeks) 33-36-2 (47.83 %) VERSUS SVP 59-56-1 (51.30 %)
NFL 2018 Record (17 weeks):  47-38-1 (55.29 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  42 of 133 (31.57 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14: +29.0 with spread.  +101.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15: -17.5 with spread.  +11.0 straight up.
NFL 15/NCAA16:  -42.5 with spread. -29.0 straight up.
NFL 16/NCAA17:  -37.0 with spread.  -26.0 straight up.
NFL17/NCAA18:  +21.5 with spread.  +41.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +99.5  (+5.53/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +864.00 (+48.00/week vs +42.47/week spread)

Update from before Christmas

All NFL again this week.  Bowl games continue to be the bane of my existence.  NEARLY OUT OF THE HOLE.  On to the bank below, we're back to being down $90 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($16,170) + $15,750 + $330 = ($90).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

HOU @ NYJ +6  LOSS 29 - 22 (Margin +7)  Close but no cigar.

MIA @ MIN -7 WIN 17 - 41 (Margin -24)  New O coordinator + home game + crappy opponent + 2 game losing streak = dominating win.

TB +7.5 @ BAL LOSS 12 - 20 (Margin +8)  My goodness we were close again to a big week.

TEN +2.5 @ NYG WIN 17 - 0 (Margin -17)  Not sure what this was about.

SEA @ SF +4.5 WIN 23 - 26 (OT) (Margin -3)  This might be my favorite win of the season - not to mention OUTRIGHT! Overtime was scary since SF was leading all game.

Well the NFL continues to follow the "trends" that I like and we are rolling here towards the end of the season. I already posted these next picks, and well they went 4-1 so bite me.  Feels good to be good right now.

Here are your 2018 NFL Week 16 picks!  Dec 18 - Dec 24 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

KC @ SEA +2.5

TB +7.5 @ DAL

MIN -5.5 @ DET

CHI @ SF +4

DEN @ OAK +2.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 16/NFL Week 15 Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 75-69-3 (52.08 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (16 weeks) 33-36-2 (47.83 %) VERSUS SVP 59-56-1 (51.30 %)
NFL 2018 Record (15 weeks):  42-33-1 (56.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  39 of 125 (31.20 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14: +29.0 with spread.  +101.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15: -17.5 with spread.  +11.0 straight up.
NFL 15/NCAA16:  -42.5 with spread. -29.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +115.0  (+7.19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +849.00 (+53.06/week vs +45.87/week spread)