Friday, October 25, 2019

I Still Want WINNERS

Solid week 7 staying in the BLACK.  Let's hope the student athletes don't ruin it this week.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $410 $7,560 + $0 + ($7,150).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of NFL Week 7.

ARI +3 @ NYG  WIN 27 - 21 (Margin -6)  On the field!

MIN -1 @ DET WIN 42 - 30 (Margin -12)  Not sure how they gave up 30, but a win's a win's a win.

SF @ WAS +9.5 WIN 9 - 0 (Margin +0.5)  Shutouts covering spreads?

LAR @ ATL +3 LOSS 37 - 10 (Margin +27)  This line stunk so bad, had to try it out.

NO @ CHI -3.5 LOSS 36 - 25 (Margin +11)  Vegas continues to undervalue Saints, public wins again.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 picks!  Oct 22 - Oct 28 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ohio +2.5 @ Ball State

Virginia @ Louisville +3.5

Texas @ TCU +1.5

Penn State @ Michigan State +5.5

South Carolina @ Tennessee +4.5

WAS @ MIN -16

DEN +5.5 @ IND

TB @ TEN -2.5

OAK +6.5 @ HOU

CAR @ SF -5.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 36-29-0 (55.38 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (8 weeks) 17-13-0 (56.67 %) VERSUS SVP 30-31  (49.18 %)
NFL 2019 Record (7 weeks):  19-16-0 (54.29 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  19 of 47 (40.43 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -108.00  (-13.50/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +143.00 (+17.88/week vs +31.88/week spread)

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