That's Much More Like It!

Not that I relish losing in NCAAF betting, but I just like it to be consistent.  Using betting trends to predict winners is MUCH easier and consistent in the NFL - because they have real injury reports AND because they are professionals.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is ($3,850) + $3,780 + $0 = ($70).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss).

Here's a summary of NCAAF Week 4/NFL Week 3.

Michigan +3.5 @ Wisconsin  LOSS 14 - 35 (Margin +21)  Let's go BLUE? Yikes!

Boston College @ Rutgers +7.5 LOSS 30 - 16 (Margin +14)  Never again, Rutgers.

Western Michigan +4.5 @ Syracuse LOSS 33 - 52 (Margin +19)  Oh well.

Washington @ BYU +7 LOSS 45 - 19 (Margin +26)  Talk about your let downs at home.

Oregon @ Stanford +11 LOSS 21 - 6 (Margin 15)  Four out of five home dog losses ATS.

OAK @ MIN -8.5 WIN 14 - 34 (Margin -20) Cousins is HOFer at home for noon games against mediocre teams after prime time road loss.

ATL @ IND -1.5 WIN 24 - 27 (Margin -3) Superbowl hangover for Falcons is lasting a long time.

NO +4 @ SEA WIN 33 - 27 (Margin -6)  Backup QB on the road against the 12th man is only getting 4 points?  That line stunk real bad.

HOU @ LAC -3 LOSS 27 - 20 (Margin +7) Figure it out Rivers.

LAR @ CLE +3 LOSS 20 - 13 (Margin +7) Four incomplete passes from the four yard line to lose the game.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 picks!  Sep 24 - Sep 30 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See post here

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Record: 3-7-0 (30.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 18-17-0 (51.43 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (4 weeks) 12-8-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 14-15  (48.28 %)
NFL 2019 Record (3 weeks):  6-9-0 (40.00 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  11 of 26 (42.31 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -75.00  (-18.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +98.00 (+24.50/week vs +43.25/week spread)