Just above the "winning" threshold percent this week - can't complain, but trust me, I will. I've just thought of something maybe I should explain. When I make the comment "On the field," it is referring to the team being an underdog and winning outright.... on the field. Not sure if the faithful readers picked up on that, but I've used it essentially any time the underdog has won outright (which is about 45.71% of the time that I wager on them). As I've mentioned before, probably should just start MONEYLINING THEM ALL. The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).
2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $790 = $11,130 + $110 + ($10,450). (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).
Here's a summary of last week.
Purdue @ Northwestern -2 LOSS 24 - 22 (Margin +2) Remind me again why I take favorites.
Stanford @ Colorado +3.5 WIN 13 - 16 (Margin -3) On the field.
Wake Forest @ Va. Tech +2 WIN 17 - 36 (Margin -19) On the field!
Illinios @ Michigan State -14.5 LOSS 37 - 34 (Margin +3) This is the one to complain about. The most ridiculous lines of the season have come for Sparty. This was so horrible it had to be right - and it was for 3 quarters when Sparty was up 21 points. Taking the loss ATS I can obviously understand if not expect, but to be on the losing end the biggest comeback in Illinois school history is just dumb.
Georgia State @ Louisiana Monroe +2.5 WIN 31 - 45 (Margin -14) Another on the field victory.
BUF @ CLE -3 PUSH 16 - 19 (Margin -3) First push of the season in week 10.
LAR @ PIT +3.5 WIN 12 - 17 (Margin -5) What has happened to the LAR?
CAR +5 @ GB LOSS 16 - 24 (Margin +8) Literally inches from covering this on the last play of the game.
KC -3.5 @ TEN LOSS 32 - 35 (Margin +3) Chefs burn me two weeks in a row.
MIN +3 @ DAL WIN 28 - 24 (Margin -4) So Dallas must be a mediocre team or the Vikes wouldn't be able to handle them in a "prime time" game.
Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 picks! Nov 12 - Nov 18 WINNERS!
Florida @ Missouri +7
Alabama @ Mississippi State +19
Va. Tech @ Ga. Tech +6
Georgia @ Auburn +3
Louisville @ North Carolina State +4
DEN +10.5 @ MIN
HOU +4 @ BAL
ATL +5.5 @ CAR
NE @ PHI +3.5
KC @ LAC +3.5
*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time. Link to the Super Contest Rules.
NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 5-4-1 (55.56 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 53-41-1 (56.38 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (11 weeks) 25-20-0 (55.56 %) VERSUS SVP 39-46 (45.88 %)
NFL 2019 Record (10 weeks): 28-21-1 (57.14 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins: 32 of 70 (45.71 %)
Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread. Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):
NFL0/NCAA1: -55.0 with spread. +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -18.0 with spread. +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3: -54.5 with spread. -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4: 52.5 with spread. +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5: -2.5 with spread. +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6: -18.5 with spread. -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7: -30.0 with spread. -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8: 18.0 with spread. 29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9: -81.5 with spread. -76 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10: -21.0 with spread. +35 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: -28.5 with spread. -32 straight up.
Total point margin including spread: -239.00 (-21.73/week)
Total point margin straight up: +70.00 (+6.36/week vs +28.09/week spread)
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