Heating Up!

After a banner week 8 I need to take a step back and reflect.  Let's keep it humble here.  I feel like I should be money lining on all the underdogs, now hitting at a 42.59% winning clip.  If the average money line is +150, then a 40% winning clip will break even.  Currently it would be an additional $350 with $100 money line bets (23 of 54) for this season using those odds.  Just something to think about!  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $990 = $9,240 + $0 + ($8,250).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of last week.

Ohio +2.5 @ Ball State  WIN 34 - 21 (Margin -13)  On the field!

Virginia @ Louisville +3.5 WIN 21 - 28 (Margin -7)  On the field.

Texas @ TCU +1.5 WIN 27 - 37 (Margin -10)  On the field?

Penn State @ Michigan State +5.5 LOSS 28 - 7 (Margin +21)  This was the most ridiculous line of the year.  Sparty had to be right side - otherwise why on earth put yourself at the risk of every dope in America crushing the Penn State side (line still went down to 4 before kick-off).

South Carolina @ Tennessee +4.5 WIN 21 - 41 (Margin -20)  On the field.

WAS @ MIN -16 LOSS 9 - 19 (Margin -10)  I hate having to pick games with these kind of spreads.

DEN +5.5 @ IND WIN 13 - 15 (Margin +2)  Should have won outright.

TB @ TEN -2.5 WIN 23 - 27 (Margin -4)  Everybody was on Tampa in this one.

OAK +6.5 @ HOU WIN 24 - 27 (Margin +3)  Should have won outright.  Gotta love it when you hate a bet so much and it wins.  That's the true system at work.

CAR @ SF -5.5 WIN 13 - 51 (Margin -38)  Oh my didn't see this blowout coming.  A win, sure. A cover, sure.  A complete annihilation? No chance.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 picks!  Oct 29 - Nov 4 WINNERS!

Akron +6 @ Bowling Green

Mississippi State @ Arkansas +7.5

UNLV @ Colorado State +7.5

Marshall @ Rice +11.5

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech +8

TEN +3.5 @ CAR

NYJ @ MIA +3

GB @ LAC +3.5

MIN +2.5 @ KC

NE @ BAL +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.

**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 8-2-0 (80.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 44-31-0 (58.67 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (9 weeks) 21-14-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 35-34  (50.72 %)
NFL 2019 Record (8 weeks):  23-17-0 (57.50 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  23 of 54 (42.59 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -81.5 with spread.  -76 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -189.50  (-21.06/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +67.00 (+7.44/week vs +28.50/week spread)