Tuesday, December 3, 2019

2019 Final Results

Really soft finish after being up most of the season. The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).


2019 Theoretical Bank finished down ($200) $13,440 + $110 + ($13,750).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of last two weeks of the season.

Oklahoma State @ West Virgina +6 LOSS 20 - 13 (Margin +7)

Pittsburgh +3.5 @ Va. Tech LOSS 0 - 28 (Margin +28)

Houston +3 @ Tulsa WIN 24 - 14 (Margin -10)

Nebraska @ Maryland +6 LOSS 54 - 7 (Margin +47)

South Alabama +11 @ Georgia State LOSS 15 - 28 (Margin +13)

TB +4.5 @ ATL WIN 35 - 22 (Margin -13)

JAX +3 @ TEN LOSS 20 - 42 (Margin +22)

DET @ WAS +3.5 WIN 16 - 19 (Margin -3)

SEA @ PHI -2 LOSS 17 - 9 (Margin +8)

BAL @ LAR +3 LOSS 45 - 6 (Margin +39)

Indiana @ Purdue +7 WIN 44 - 41 (2OT) (Margin +3)  Boiler up to cover town.

Wake Forest @ Syracuse +4 WIN 30 - 39 (OT) (Margin -9)  On the field - hard to get 9 points in a single OT.

Alabama @ Auburn +3.5 WIN 45 - 48 (Margin -3)  On the field in the Iron Bowl.

Wisconsin @ Minnesota +3 LOSS 38 - 17 (Margin +21)  Game day flop.

Baylor @ Kansas +14 LOSS 61 - 6 (Margin +55)  Kills the point diff.

TB @ JAX +2.5 LOSS 28 - 11 (Margin +17)  Whatevs.

TEN +2.5 @ IND WIN 31 - 17 (Margin -14)  On the field.

NYJ @ CIN +3 WIN 6 - 22 (Margin -16)  On the field.

GB @ NYG +6.5 LOSS 31 - 13 (Margin +18)  Whatevs.

NE @ HOU +3.5 WIN 22 - 28 (Margin -6)  On the field.

MIN +3 @ SEA LOSS 30 - 37 (Margin +7)  Prime time Kirk.

Here is a breakdown of the 2019 season.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 6-5-0 (54.55 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 64-61-1 (51.20 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (12 weeks) 29-31-0 (48.33 %)
NFL 2019 Record (13 weeks):  35-30-1 (55.56 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  41 of 100 (41.00 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:    -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:    -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:    -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:    52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:    -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5 ONLY:        -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6 ONLY:        -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:    18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:    -81.5 with spread.  -76 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:    -21.0 with spread.  +35 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:    -28.5 with spread.  -32 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:    +74.0 with spread.  +140 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:    +96.5 with spread.  +138.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14:    +6.5 with spread.  +59.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -62.00  (-4.43/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +407.00 (+29.07/week vs +33.50/week spread)

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