Friday, November 22, 2019

Yikes!

Not much to say about last week.  We're on to Cincinnati.  The bank below is tracked throughout the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2019 Theoretical bank is currently UP $110 $11,550 + $110 + ($11,550).  (Net profit/loss = Winnings + money returned from pushes - total amount wagered).

Here's a summary of last week.

Florida @ Missouri +7  LOSS 23 - 6 (Margin +17)  Not good.

Alabama @ Mississippi State +19 LOSS 38 - 7 (Margin +31)  Worse.

Va. Tech @ Ga. Tech +6 LOSS 0 - 39 (Margin +39)  Oh my.

Georgia @ Auburn +3 LOSS 21 - 14 (Margin +7)  Nope.

Louisville @ North Carolina State +4 LOSS 34 - 24 (Margin +10)  Keep it coming.

DEN +10.5 @ MIN WIN 23 - 27 (Margin +4)  First win of week 11.

HOU +4 @ BAL LOSS 7 - 41 (Margin +34)  Are the Ravens for real?

ATL +5.5 @ CAR WIN 29 - 3 (Margin -26)  Well that was the surprise of the week.

NE @ PHI +3.5 LOSS 17 - 10 (Margin +7)  Cripes.

KC @ LAC +3.5 LOSS 24 - 17 (Margin +7)  No bueno.

Here are your 2019 NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 picks!  Nov 19 - Nov 25 WINNERS!

Oklahoma State @ West Virgina +6

Pittsburgh +3.5 @ Va. Tech

Houston +3 @ Tulsa

Nebraska @ Maryland +6

South Alabama +11 @ Georgia State

TB +4.5 @ ATL

JAX +3 @ TEN

DET @ WAS +3.5

SEA @ PHI -2

BAL @ LAR +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 2-8-0 (20.00 %)
Overall 2019 Football Season Record: 55-49-1 (52.88 %)
NCAAF 2019 Record (12 weeks) 25-25-0 (50.00 %) VERSUS SVP 41-49  (45.56 %)
NFL 2019 Record (11 weeks):  30-24-1 (55.56 %)
Overall 2019 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  33 of 80 (41.25 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  -55.0 with spread.  +7 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -18.0 with spread.  +30 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -54.5 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  52.5 with spread.  +80 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -2.5 with spread.  +40 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  -18.5 with spread.  -5 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -30.0 with spread.  -19 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  18.0 with spread.  29 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -81.5 with spread.  -76 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  -21.0 with spread.  +35 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -28.5 with spread.  -32 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  +74.0 with spread.  +140 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -165.00  (-13.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +210.00 (+17.50/week vs +31.25/week spread)

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