Can A Duck Pull A Truck?

Well it was bound to happen.  Got crushed last week.  Couldn't go 89% all year.  Maybe in NFL.  I should have left my bonus pick on there (HINT: It was a winner in the NFL).  I wanted to stick to 5 games per week and I wanted to avoid being a homer by betting on my own team.  The numbers were ripe though and it came through.  As were ATL and CLE (also winners).  Damnit.

I really want to pull the trigger on the Bulls of USF catching 5 against Free Shoes U, because that just doesn't make sense to me.  How on earth are the 'Noles not giving more than a TD to the lowly AAC team?  Sure the Bulls have scored nearly 50 a game in their first three contests, but against Towson, Northern Illinois, and Syracuse?  Hard to measure the worth of those points.  FSU is supposed to one of the best teams in the country, sure they got trounced by Lamar Jackson, but I have a feeling that trend is going to continue in that conference (maybe in any conference, that kid is doing serious things - all the kid does is make touchdowns).  FSU beat a team that has seemed to give Alabama trouble in the last few years, and that is something to think about.  Every dope in America is going to have FSU, so that's why I would say, Vegas must know something we don't.  If they didn't, it would seem that they like to lose money, and we all know that just isn't the case (except for 3 of my winners last week.......).  I'm guessing some oddsmakers may have been fired over the Oklahoma line last week.  Maybe the UTEP one also.  If I had to switch one, I'd take off the Buffalo/Army game (because the damn Black Knights killed me last week) and ride those Bulls at +5.  Hopefully they can stay on for 60 minutes rather than just 8 seconds.  The same logic applies to the Stanford/UCLA game also, but I'm taking that one anyway (because it stinks).  Almost guaranteed to be one of SVPs winners tonight.  Probably USF also.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Picks!  Sep 22 - Sep 26 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Army @ Buffalo +14  WIN

Florida +4.5 @ Tennessee  LOSS

Stanford @ UCLA +3  LOSS

ARI @ BUF +4  WIN

PIT @ PHI +3.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Miami (FL) @ App. State +4 LOSS 45 - 10 (Margin +35) This line stunk..... can't imagine why Vegas would elect to lose money on this game.


• Army @ UTEP +4 LOSS 66 - 14 (Margin +52) WHAT?!  Vegas clearly underestimates the Black Knights. Don't worry I'm going against them again in week 4.  Glutton for punishment.


• Ohio St. @ Oklahoma +1 LOSS 45 - 24 (Margin +21)  Another stinker.  Vegas really likes losing money this week.  The whole world was on Ohio St.  So unless it was going to actually be close, why set the line so low?  Unless of course you want to lose money.


• Navy @ Tulane +5.5 LOSS 21 - 14 (Margin +7)  Finally a close game.  Navy goes for two after last TD.  Would have been a sweet victory had they failed.


• Georgia @ Missouri +6.5 WIN 28 - 27 (Margin +1)  Tigers gave up the go ahead score with 1:30 left in the game.  WINNERS!

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 1-4-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 9-5-1 (64.3 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (3 weeks) 8-5-1

NFL 2016 Record (2 weeks):  1-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 15 (20 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +57  (+19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +190 (+63.3/week vs +44.3/week spread)

Fade Material

SVP had a rough week in WINNERS last week, but we didn't!  Kept up the amazing start to 2016.  Kind of makes me want to put down real money.  Hold on there, tiger. Let's try to rein in the cockiness before we get bit.  Keep your eye on the prize.  Close some tail. Should have been 5-0 last week. Thanks a lot UConn.  Question: If you were the coach of UConn and had zero time outs with 12 seconds remaining and were down 4 points with the ball on the 1 yard line, would you:

A) Call a running play
B) Call a passing play
C) Take a knee
D) Combination of A and C

If you chose A, C, or D, then you must have the same number of working brain cells as the UConn coach. Congratulations.  Sure if the running play works out, you'd never question the call. But seriously, you have to know that is the only play that you have time to run.  Goal line runs get stacked up and take lots of time to sort out.  So if you don't get in the endzone, you aren't running another play because half of your line will still be under a pile of people 15 seconds after the whistle blows.  It's not like it was 4th down either. It was 2nd down. Could have gotten off 3 more plays.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Picks!  Sep 16 - Sep 19 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Miami (FL) @ App. State +4 LOSS

Army @ UTEP +4  LOSS

Ohio St. @ Oklahoma +1 LOSS

Navy @ Tulane +5.5  LOSS

Georgia @ Missouri +6.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Connecticut +4 @ Navy PUSH 24 - 28 (Margin +4) Nice call on last play of the game....


• Central Mich. +21 @ Oklahoma St. WIN 30 - 27 (Margin -3)  Expected the cover, but not the outright win.  Choke job by the Cowboys!


• North Dakota +21.5 @ Bowling Green WIN 26 - 27 (Margin +1)  Sioux go for two and the win......... but come up short.


• Virginia +24 @ Oregon WIN 26 - 44 (Margin +18)  Oregon scored a late meaningless TD that would have lost this bet had the play not been negated for a holding call.


• GB @ JAX +5 WIN 27 - 23 (Margin +4)  Nearly had another outright win.  Game winning TD was dropped in the endzone!  I hate the Packers.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 4-0-1

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 8-1-1 (88.9 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (2 weeks) 7-1-1

NFL 2016 Record (1 weeks):  1-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 10 (30 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up

Total point margin including spread:  -38  (-19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +74 (+37/week vs +56/week spread)

Bang Biscuit!

Great start to the 2016 season.  Actually a lot of good football games in week 1.  Not so much in week 2 but it does bring back the National Football League.  The board doesn't look all that good this week.  Let's see what I can scratch out.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Picks!  Sep 9 - Sep 12 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Connecticut +4 @ Navy PUSH

Central Mich. +21 @ Oklahoma St. WIN

North Dakota +21.5 @ Bowling Green WIN

Virginia +24 @ Oregon WIN

GB @ JAX +5 WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Kansas State +15.5 @ Stanford WIN 13 - 26 (Margin +13)  Old Bill Snyder.


• Western Mich +5 @ Northwestern WIN 22 - 21 (Margin -1)  As SVP said "ROW THE FREAKIN' BOAT!"


• San Jose St +5 @ Tulsa LOSS 10 - 45 (Margin +35)  What was going on in this game?  Not even going to try and dissect it.


• Clemson @ Auburn +7.5 WIN 19 - 13 (Margin +6)  Auburn should have won this game.


• Notre Dame @ Texas +3.5 WIN 47 - 50 (Margin -3)  Never should have made it to OT!  Cripes.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1 Record: 4-1-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 4-1-0 (80 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (1 weeks) 4-1-0

NFL 2016 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  2 of 5 (40 %)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +13.5  (+13.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +50  (+50/week vs +36.5/week spread)

AND WE'RE BACK!

Well I'm back in the saddle again.  Year 2 of the experiment that I started based on this post.  Last year didn't end well and I ran out of time to make picks.  No need to recap the last week of picks.  It was a crushing defeat on both accounts.  I'm going to crack down on the rules a bit.  Only 5 picks a week.  That's it. I don't care if the numbers are good for 30 games.  Stick to 5 per week.  Narrow it down to the best.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 1 Picks!  Sep 1 - Sep 5 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Kansas State +15.5 @ Stanford  WIN

Western Mich +5 @ Northwestern  WIN

San Jose St +5 @ Tulsa  LOSS

Clemson @ Auburn +7.5  WIN

Notre Dame @ Texas +3.5 WIN

Here is a breakdown of the first season of the system.  Nothing to write home about.  We'll do it better in 2016!

NFL Week 14 Record: 0-2-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 47-52-4 (47.4%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (11 weeks) 32-39-3

NFL 2015 Record (12 weeks):  15-13-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  25 of 95 (26.3%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.
Week 10:  -24.5 with spread.  -4 straight up.
Week 11:  +32.5 with spread.  +82 straight up.
Week 12:  +31.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +297  (+24.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +1020  (+85/week vs +60.25/week spread)

Things That Make You Go Hmmmmm.

The wild ride for college football is over, at least as this blog is concerned.  As I wrote in the previous post, I have zero faith in picking bowl games straight up, let alone ATS.  I'm sure they'll be some decent picks when we get to the larger bowls.  Anyway, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short breakdown of last week's winners:

• Florida +17.5 @ Alabama WIN 15 - 29 (Margin +14)  After watching this game and realizing how bad Florida's offense is, I can't believe this won.


• Michigan St. @ Iowa +3.5 WIN 16 - 13 (Margin +3)  What a defensive battle, looked good to keep it close all game.  Nearly pulled off the out right win, but that last drive was incredible for Sparty.


• CIN @ CLE +9.5 LOSS 37 - 3 (Margin +34)  Man do the Browns miss McCown, and that's saying something.


• ARI @ STL +5 LOSS 27 - 3 (Margin +24)  Dumb.


• DEN @ SD +3.5 LOSS 17 - 3 (Margin +14)  Phil Rivers could use some help on the O-line.  I saw this line jump up to 6 on Sunday morning.  Not good!


• PHI +10.5 @ NE WIN 35 - 28 (Margin -7)  As bad as the Eagles have been, this is a big line in the NFL.  Pats D is banged up also, not to mention Gronk and Edelman.  Keep the outright underdog winning streak alive!

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 3-3-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 47-50-4 (48.5%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (11 weeks) 32-39-3

NFL 2015 Record (11 weeks):  15-11-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  25 of 93 (26.9%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.
Week 10:  -24.5 with spread.  -4 straight up.
Week 11:  +32.5 with spread.  +82 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +265.5  (+24.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +970  (+88.2/week vs +64.1/week spread)

Here are your NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 8 - Dec 15 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

SEA @ BAL +11.5  LOSS

DAL +7 @ GB  LOSS

It's Official, Student Athletes Are Conspiring Against Me

Good thing the NCAAF season close is upon us.  I don't think I could survive too many more weeks.  I can't imagine posting winners for bowl games.  Those are a bigger crap shoot than the regular season and I don't think it's close.  Anyway, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short synopsis of this weeks action:

• Troy -1 @ Georgia St. LOSS 31 - 21 (Margin +10)  This line moved so much into Troy's favor, I thought it was the stone-cold lock of the century of the week.


• Washington St. @ Washington -7.5 WIN 10 - 45 (Margin -35)  This line was off all week and then suddenly there it was, and it looked ripe for the favorite.  Line was moving up despite only about 30% of ATS bets on the favorite.


• UMass +6.5 @ Buffalo WIN 31 - 26 (Margin -5)  Minutemen jumped out front and really never looked back, only surrendering the lead once.


• Va. Tech @ Virginia +3.5 WIN 23 - 20 (Margin +3)  Kept it close all game and surrendered a late FG to secure the win.


• Georgia @ Ga. Tech +4 LOSS 13 - 7 (Margin +6)  Yellow Jackets kept it close, but not close enough.  Lost turnover margin 0-3 and missed a FG that would have brought home the bacon.


• North Carolina @ NC State +3.5 LOSS 45 - 34 (Margin +11)  This line moved so much into NC State's favor, I thought it was the second stone-cold lock of the century of the week.


• Northwestern @ Illinois +3.5 LOSS 24 - 14 (Margin +10)  This line was kind of stinky.  It was a 10 point game for nearly the entire 4Q.  Illini couldn't find a way to get the back door cover.  Also missed two FGs.


• OAK @ TEN +1 LOSS 24 - 21 (Margin +3)  Titans took the lead with 4:41 to go.  They gave it right back with 1:21 remaining and then turned it over three offensive plays later.  Oakland was bailed out by a holding call on 4th down during their eventual scoring drive (I'm sure it was a bullshit call!)  


• ARI @ SF +10 WIN 19 - 13 (Margin +6)  Tie game late in the fourth.  Didn't seem to ever be in danger of losing this one after the game started.  Line was down to +7.5 at kickoff.


• TB @ IND -3 WIN 12 - 25 (Margin -13)  Matt Hasselbeck continues to be awesome.  Who needs that other guy?  What was his name again?

NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Record: 5-5-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 44-47-4 (48.4%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (10 weeks) 30-39-3
NFL 2015 Record (10 weeks):  14-8-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  24 of 87 (27.6%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.
Week 10:  -24.5 with spread.  -4 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +233  (+23.3/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +888  (+88.8/week vs +65.5/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Dec 1 - Dec 7 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Florida +17.5 @ Alabama (neutral site)  WIN

Michigan St. @ Iowa +3.5 (neutral site)  WIN

CIN @ CLE +9.5  LOSS

ARI @ STL +5  LOSS

DEN @ SD +3.5 (EDIT 11:49 AM Sunday 12/6/15 This line jumped up to 6 points this morning.... That does not bode well for this bet.)  LOSS

PHI +10.5 @ NE  WIN

Go by the See-Saw, Smoke a J? You know what I'm Talkin' About?

Back and forth, back and forth.  Gotta take the highs with the lows.  You know what else is good?  Yoo-Hoo with a little bit of rum in it.  No, I'm not talkin' about Rumpelstiltskin.  Anyway, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short synopsis of why things went the way they did:

• Rutgers @ Army +4.5 LOSS 31 - 21 (Margin +10)  Army threw an INT in the red zone during the middle of the 4Q and never got the ball back.


• North Carolina @ Va. Tech +4 WIN 30 - 27 OT (Margin +3)  This was heading to bad beat central when it hit OT.  Luckily the Hokies kicked a FG and UNC scored a TD instead of forcing double OT.


• LSU @ Ole Miss -6.5 WIN 17 - 38 (Margin -21)  Rarely are favorites given out here, but this was one of three this week.  Rebels jumped out to a 24-0 lead before the Bayou Bengals roared back with 3 scores of their own to bring it back to a 7 point margin.  Looks like the turnover bug burned the Tigers (can't say for sure, didn't watch).


• Michigan St. @ Ohio St. -13.5 LOSS 17 - 14 (Margin +3)  How does a team with the longest winning streak in the country and "the three best QBs all on the same team" only manage five effing first downs against a team that gave up 39 points to NEBRASKA.  Oh yeah, Sparty also started a back-up QB.  I could go insane trying to figure out this game, so I'll just chalk it up to stupid college kids choking when it counts most.


• OAK @ DET -1 WIN 13 - 18 (Margin -5)  Look at those pesky Lions getting a couple wins in a row for me.  


• DAL @ MIA +1 LOSS 24 - 14 (Margin +10)  Romo comes back and Miami continues to be Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.


• NYJ @ HOU +4 WIN 17 - 24 (Margin -7)  Wouldn't be a week without an outright underdog win.  This bet actually made sense.  Texans in first place after a big win on MNF, a reason to play hard.  Good thing the public was still all over the Jets.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 4-3-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 39-42-4 (48.1%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (9 weeks) 27-35-3
NFL 2015 Record (9 weeks):  12-7-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  22 of 80 (27.5%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +257.5  (+28.6/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +892  (+99.1/week vs +70.5/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Picks!  Nov 24 - Nov 30 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Troy -1 @ Georgia St.  LOSS

Washington St. @ Washington -7.5  WIN

UMass +6.5 @ Buffalo  WIN

Va. Tech @ Virginia +3.5  WIN

Georgia @ Ga. Tech +4  LOSS

North Carolina @ NC State +3.5  LOSS

Northwestern @ Illinois +3.5  LOSS

OAK @ TEN +1  LOSS

ARI @ SF +10  WIN

TB @ IND -3  WIN