Can A Duck Pull A Truck?

Well it was bound to happen.  Got crushed last week.  Couldn't go 89% all year.  Maybe in NFL.  I should have left my bonus pick on there (HINT: It was a winner in the NFL).  I wanted to stick to 5 games per week and I wanted to avoid being a homer by betting on my own team.  The numbers were ripe though and it came through.  As were ATL and CLE (also winners).  Damnit.

I really want to pull the trigger on the Bulls of USF catching 5 against Free Shoes U, because that just doesn't make sense to me.  How on earth are the 'Noles not giving more than a TD to the lowly AAC team?  Sure the Bulls have scored nearly 50 a game in their first three contests, but against Towson, Northern Illinois, and Syracuse?  Hard to measure the worth of those points.  FSU is supposed to one of the best teams in the country, sure they got trounced by Lamar Jackson, but I have a feeling that trend is going to continue in that conference (maybe in any conference, that kid is doing serious things - all the kid does is make touchdowns).  FSU beat a team that has seemed to give Alabama trouble in the last few years, and that is something to think about.  Every dope in America is going to have FSU, so that's why I would say, Vegas must know something we don't.  If they didn't, it would seem that they like to lose money, and we all know that just isn't the case (except for 3 of my winners last week.......).  I'm guessing some oddsmakers may have been fired over the Oklahoma line last week.  Maybe the UTEP one also.  If I had to switch one, I'd take off the Buffalo/Army game (because the damn Black Knights killed me last week) and ride those Bulls at +5.  Hopefully they can stay on for 60 minutes rather than just 8 seconds.  The same logic applies to the Stanford/UCLA game also, but I'm taking that one anyway (because it stinks).  Almost guaranteed to be one of SVPs winners tonight.  Probably USF also.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Picks!  Sep 22 - Sep 26 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Army @ Buffalo +14  WIN

Florida +4.5 @ Tennessee  LOSS

Stanford @ UCLA +3  LOSS

ARI @ BUF +4  WIN

PIT @ PHI +3.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Miami (FL) @ App. State +4 LOSS 45 - 10 (Margin +35) This line stunk..... can't imagine why Vegas would elect to lose money on this game.


• Army @ UTEP +4 LOSS 66 - 14 (Margin +52) WHAT?!  Vegas clearly underestimates the Black Knights. Don't worry I'm going against them again in week 4.  Glutton for punishment.


• Ohio St. @ Oklahoma +1 LOSS 45 - 24 (Margin +21)  Another stinker.  Vegas really likes losing money this week.  The whole world was on Ohio St.  So unless it was going to actually be close, why set the line so low?  Unless of course you want to lose money.


• Navy @ Tulane +5.5 LOSS 21 - 14 (Margin +7)  Finally a close game.  Navy goes for two after last TD.  Would have been a sweet victory had they failed.


• Georgia @ Missouri +6.5 WIN 28 - 27 (Margin +1)  Tigers gave up the go ahead score with 1:30 left in the game.  WINNERS!

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 1-4-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 9-5-1 (64.3 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (3 weeks) 8-5-1

NFL 2016 Record (2 weeks):  1-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 15 (20 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +57  (+19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +190 (+63.3/week vs +44.3/week spread)