Welcome to Conference Play (For Some?)

Am I the only one that misses the old days when the first three games were always non-conference and week 4 on were conference games?  Maybe that isn't how it used to be, but that's how I remember it, which is all that matters.  Anyway, I digress; not a bad week 3, but could have been better!  There was a 5-0 college week in there had I just mixed and matched a bit better. Purdue, SDSU, and North Texas were all winners.  Oh well, after being 60% for 2 straight weeks we were one game off.  Unfortunately, that one game is the difference between a winning week and a losing week.  Point differential versus spread has been good each week - beating it overall on average.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($2,860) + $2,940 + $110 = $190.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Ball State @ Indiana -15 WIN 10 - 38 (Margin -28) Notre Dame couldn't cover versus the Cardinals, but the Hoosiers had no problem.

Miami @ Toledo +12 LOSS 49 - 24 (Margin +25)  Not really sure what happened at the Glass Bowl, but evidently the Rockets didn't show up.

Hawai'i @ Army -6.5 WIN 21 - 28 (Margin -7)  Black Knights prevail by the slimmest of margins.

New Mexico @ New Mexico State +4 LOSS 42 - 24 (Margin +18)  This one was close and got out of hand quickly.  Four point game at the half.  I had this as likely being an outright win.

Eastern Michigan +3.5 @ Buffalo LOSS 28 - 35 (Margin +7)  In a game that featured nearly 500 yards of offense for EACH team, E. Mich. lost by 7 and not by 3. Damn.

LAC @ BUF +7 LOSS 31 - 20 (Margin +11)  Oh my for being so bad and starting a rookie QB, they nearly pulled off the back door cover.

MIN @ GB +7 WIN 29 - 29 (Margin +0)  For the second week in a row, the NFL had a tie (and we cashed a winner).

PHI @ TB +3.5 WIN 21 - 27 (Margin -6)  The Bucs are outright winners for the second week in a row.

NE @ JAX +1 WIN 20 - 31 (Margin -11)  Rematch of the AFC title game and we have a different result.

KC @ PIT -4 LOSS 42 - 37 (Margin +5)  Well, I can't say that the offense is the problem.....

Well here we go, a few that didn't make the board include W. Kentucky, Nevada, SMU, and Purdue (again).  SMU is out because I took them earlier and they got beat, even though it was only a one score game (against the number).

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 picks!  Sep 18 - Sep 24 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Clemson @ Ga. Tech +16

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +7

Western Michigan @ Ga. State +7.5

North Texas @ Liberty +14

Georgia @ Missouri +14.5

BUF +16.5 @ MIN

TEN +9.5 @ JAX

GB @ WAS +2.5

NE @ DET +7

CHI @ ARI +6

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 5-5-0 (50.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 14-11-1 (56.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (3 weeks) 7-7-1 (50.00 %) VERSUS SVP 8-12-0 (40.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (2 weeks):  7-4-0 (63.64 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  6 of 21 (28.6 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +1.5 with spread.  +14.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -31.0  (-10.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +118.0 (+39.33/week vs +49.67/week spread)

A Duck Pulled a Truck!

Continue rolling in week 2, adding the NFL to the mix.  Time to get pistol hot!  Kentucky (duck - last year this was Tennessee) ended a run of 31 or 32 straight losses to Florida (truck) and I didn't have that as one of my winners?!  Wonder what the trends were saying, I don't recall that game drawing my interest.  The Vols got beat on the last play of the game last year, so a duck pulled a truck for about 59 minutes and 55 seconds.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($1,760) + $1,890 + $110 = $240.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

TCU @ SMU +23.5 LOSS 42 - 12 (Margin +30)  After opening up a 9-0 lead with 5 minutes to play in the 1st quarter, SMU had the entire 2nd half to score one more TD and couldn't do it.  Silly.

Mississippi State @ Kansas State +7.5 LOSS 31 - 10 (Margin +21)  That's not the Bill Snyder team I know.

Duke +3 @ Northwestern WIN 21 - 7 (Margin -14)  Winning on the field (not just in the spread).

Kansas +5 @ Central Michigan WIN 31 - 7 (Margin -24)  Who would have thought I'd have two Kansas schools in my picks this week and KU is the one to be a winner (ON THE FIELD!).

Utah @ Northern Illinois +11 PUSH 17 - 6 (Margin +11)  Bad beat central. Featured on SVP. Down 10-6 late, NIU throws a pick-6. In the end, a push is a win.

PIT @ CLE +3.5 WIN 21 - 21 (OT) (Margin +0)  Browns had this game for the taking, multiple times late and in OT.

SF @ MIN -6.5 WIN 16 - 24 (Margin -8)  Not a fantastic performance but a win is a win is a win.

TB +9.5 @ NO WIN 48 - 40 (Margin -8)  ON THE FIELD!

CIN @ IND -3 LOSS 34 - 23 (Margin +11)  Indy was winning this game for most of it, so it looked like I might get lucky.  Then the Bengals outscored the Colts 17-0 in the 4th quarter.

TEN @ MIA +1.5 WIN 20 - 27 (Margin -7)  Four hours of weather delays.  Ugly.

LAR @ OAK +4 LOSS 33 - 13 (Margin +20)  Winning at half, blown out for the game.  Come on Chuckie, figure it out.

On to this week; surprisingly there were a lot of favorites I wanted this week. Ended up with a couple actually making the board.  Here are a few I wrote down but didn't go with: FSU, Purdue, SDSU, Ohio, and Auburn.  The other line that stinks to high heaven is North Texas is only catching 6.5 or 7 points from Arkansas.  Someone remind me, but Arkansas is still in the SEC, correct?

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 picks!  Sep 11 - Sep 17 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ball State @ Indiana -15

Miami @ Toledo +12

Hawai'i @ Army -6.5

New Mexico @ New Mexico State +4

Eastern Michigan +3.5 @ Buffalo

LAC @ BUF +7

MIN @ GB +7

PHI @ TB +3.5

NE @ JAX +1

KC @ PIT -4

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 6-4-1 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 9-6-1 (60.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (2 weeks) 5-4-1 (55.56 %) VERSUS SVP 3-9-0 (25.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (1 week):  4-2-0 (66.67 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  4 of 14 (28.6 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -32.5  (-16.25/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +104.0 (+52.00/week vs +68.25/week spread)

Not the Official Blog of Nike

Week 1 is always scary - especially in college ball.  Big spreads, little knowledge about roster turnover, David vs. Goliath type match ups.  Even so, I'll take 60% every week! Giddyup.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($550) + $630 + $0 = $80.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

App. St. +24 @ Penn St. WIN 38 - 45 OT (Margin +7)  Wowsers, I didn't watch this but I bet it was exciting.  After just seeing if it was exciting, I would have considered turning it off at half since it was a punt fest, but would have continued watching because it was tied 10-10 and still had major upset potential.  App. St. had a 56 yard FG try for the win (15 seconds left), but missed.  Then they threw a pick in OT on 1st down after converting a 4th and 1.

Kent St. +16.5 @ Illinois WIN 24 - 31 (Margin +7)  Nice work by the Golden Flashes.

Texas St. +16.5 @ Rutgers LOSS 7 - 35 (Margin +28)  That sucks.

La. Tech @ So. Alabama +10.5 WIN 30 - 26 (Margin +4)  Jags couldn't pull off the home opener.  Shucks.

West Virginia @ Tennessee +10 (n) LOSS 40 - 14 (Margin +26)  Guess they should have been getting more points?

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 picks!  Sep 4 - Sep 10 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

TCU @ SMU +23.5

Mississippi State @ Kansas State +7.5

Duke +3 @ Northwestern

Kansas +5 @ Central Michigan

Utah @ Northern Illinois +11

PIT @ CLE +3.5

SF @ MIN -6.5

TB +9.5 @ NO

CIN @ IND -3 (11:55 AM edit TEN @ MIA +1.5) Bengals had huge line movement within the last 12 hours and are now favored.... So I will keep my original but add Miami.

LAR @ OAK +4

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (1 weeks) 3-2-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 2-3-0 (40.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0 (0.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  0 of 5 (0.0 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -5.5  (-5.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +72.0 (+72.00/week vs +77.50/week spread)

Time to Row the Boat

Here we go.  Interesting trend I noticed on the first three games. Let's see how that works out.  Not sure why but I feel like So. Bama is also going to win on the field.  Go Jags.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($0) + $0 + $0 = $0.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Picks!  Aug 28 - Sep 3 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

App. St. +24 @ Penn St.

Kent St. +16.5 @ Illinois

Texas St. +16.5 @ Rutgers

La. Tech @ So. Alabama +10.5

West Virginia @ Tennessee +10 (n)

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.  Nothing has happened so it's all good!

NCAA Week 0/NFL Week 0 Record: 0-0-0 (0.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 0-0-0 (0.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (0 weeks) 0-0-0 (0.00 %) VERSUS SVP 0-0-0 (0.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0 (0.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  0 of 0 (0.0 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA0: Nothing yet!

Total point margin including spread:  0.0  (0.0/week)
Total point margin straight up:  0.0 (0.00+/week vs +0.00/week spread)

2017 Recap and Moving Upward and Onward!

Well 2017 NCAAF season ended, which evidently made me lose interest in selecting winners each week.  It was a long season.  Let's take a look at how I could have ended up, if I actually put money down.  Remember, this is for entertainment and training purposes only.  Someday, I might be a good football handicapper.

Theoretical bank is ($16,280) + $15,960 + $550 = $230.

Pushed at 3-3 last week of the season. Could argue there were a couple bad beats, but whatever. Finished the season in the BLACK.  Theoretical bank is based on making $110 wager with regular -110 odds against the spread of all the games listed in my 2017 football season posts.  To make a decent amount of coin, you need to get up near 60% (that would be 10 more wins for me this season).  That would up the net winnings to $2,330.  Guess what! 2018 season is a clean slate. Let's go!

Here's what the final week looked like - only 1 college game on the slate.

Army +2.5 @ Navy WIN 14 - 13 (Margin -1)  Winning on the field.

GB @ CLE +3 LOSS 27 - 21 (Margin +6)  Oh I remember this game, when GB was LOSING to the WIN LESS Browns, but manged to tie the game and force OT.  The Browns WIN the OT toss, but still turn the ball over and lose on a TD.  I'd call this a bad beat, but it is the Browns so that I guess is business as usual. Just kick the FG, please.

DAL @ NYG +4 LOSS 30 - 10 (Margin +20)  How does Vegas set lines like this and make money?

MIN @ CAR -2.5 WIN 24 - 31 (Margin -7)  Didn't like how this line was for my hometown boys.  Vikes probably should have still won.  They gave up 2 huge runs in the game, one with about 2 minutes left.  Big time missed tackle.

PHI @ LAR -2 LOSS 43 - 35 (Margin +8)  So the Rams go up 35 - 28 in this one AND Wentz goes down.  Nick Foles comes in and they win this game and the Super Bowl.  You can't make this shit up.  Nearly forgot that there was a TD scored with no time left after the Rams tried to do a bunch of stupid laterals.  Wouldn't affect the bet outcome, but it hurts my point diff.  Lame.

NE @ MIA +11 WIN 20 - 27 (Margin -7)  Winning on the field.

Here is a breakdown of the entire 2017 season.

NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Record: 3-3-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 76-67-5 (53.1%)
NCAAF 2017 Record (15 weeks) 40-33-3 (54.8%) VERSUS SVP 48-45-1 (51.6 %)
NFL 2017 Record (14 weeks):  36-34-2 (51.4 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  44 of 120 (36.7 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60.0 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14:  -37.0 with spread.  -28.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15:  +3.0 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -155.5  (-10.36/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +592.0 (39.47+/week vs +49.83/week spread)

After the third year of this experiment, there have been some improvements each year.  Overall, I'm nearly exactly 50% which means Las Vegas has exactly what they want from me.... the juice.

2015 Football Season Record: 47-52-4 (47.4%)

2016 Football Season Record: 41-42-3 (49.4 %)

2017 Football Season Record: 76-67-5 (53.1%)

Overall Football Record (3 years) 164-161-12 (50.5%)

Theoretical Bank (3 years) ($37,070) + $34,440 + $1,320 = ($1,310)

Post-Turkey Day Turnaround

Better late than never.

Theoretical bank is ($15,620) + $15,330 + $550 = $260.

Last week was pretty good.  Back in black.

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.5 WIN 17 - 28 (Margin -11)  Winning on the field.

Georgia +1 @ Auburn WIN 28 - 7 (Margin -21)  Strange game this football.

UMass -1.5 @ Florida International LOSS 45 - 63 (Margin +18)  Talk about a barn burner.

TCU +7 @ Oklahoma LOSS 17 - 41 (Margin +24)  No more doubting Baker.

Ohio State -6 @ Wisconsin PUSH 21 - 27 (Margin -6)  Bucks should have put them away.

MIN +3 @ ATL WIN 14 - 9 (Margin -5)  The Bikes are annihilating ATS.

SF @ CHI -3 LOSS 15 - 14 (Margin +1)  I picked SF to win straight up in my other leagues.  I think this was a mistake.

DET @ BAL -2.5 WIN 20 - 44 (Margin -24)  Holla at those Ravens.

KC @ NYJ +3.5 WIN 31 - 38 (Margin -7)  On the field.

PIT @ CIN +5 WIN 23 - 20 (Margin +3)  Nearly on the field.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 5 - Dec 11 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Army +2.5 @ Navy (n)

GB @ CLE +3

DAL @ NYG +4

MIN @ CAR -2.5

PHI @ LAR -2

NE @ MIA +11

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 6-3-1 (66.67 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 73-64-5 (53.3%)
NCAAF 2017 Record (14 weeks) 39-33-3 (54.2%) VERSUS SVP 47-45-1 (51.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (13 weeks):  34-31-2 (52.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  42 of 116 (36.2 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14:  -37.0 with spread.  -28 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -158.5  (-11.32/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +573.0 (44.08+/week vs +53.42/week spread)

Thanksgiving was not something for which to be thankful

We're in the red.  I feel shame.

Theoretical bank is ($14,520) + $14,070 + $440 = ($10).

Here's what happened last week.  Worst NCAAF week of the season.  Nearly had the Turkey Day Trio, but then the G-Men did something stupid (go figure).  With 3:31 left and 2 time outs, only down by 7, they elected to go for it on 4th down from their own 32.  Then took a sack.  They were nearly guaranteed to get the ball back if they punted - as long as they didn't give up a first down to 3 running plays, but instead they decided to give up 3 points and then get the ball back. Good call.  So all they had to do was punt the god damn ball and not give up a defensive TD on their next possession and that game was a winner. But they must have thought that time ran faster in the fourth quarter when down by 7 (not being used to that situation this year)? Or that time outs wouldn't be granted to them (not ever having one that was really needed this year)?  Something in the bizzaro world or twilight zone would have made more sense.  Have a good career Ben Macadooosh.  Maybe go back to 3rd grade math and try adding 40 + 40. (hint: that's the play clock length in the NFL).  Seriously though, after looking at the point differential, I am a little pissed off we didn't do better this week.

New Mexico +20 @ San Diego State LOSS 10 - 35 (Margin +25)  No idea what happened here just know it was a one score game.

Western Kentucky @ Florida International +2.5 WIN 17 - 41 (Margin -24)  That will help the point diff.  I think we gonna need it.

Connecticut @ Cincinnati -5.5 LOSS 21 - 22 (Margin -1)  Well I'll be a monkey's uncle.

North Texas @ Rice +11 LOSS 30 - 14 (Margin +16)  Close again but no cigar.

Arkansas State @ UL Monroe +8 LOSS 67 - 50 (Margin +17)  Guess I should have taken the over.

MIN -3 @ DET WIN 30 - 23 (Margin -7)  Maybe I should just bet the farm on the Bikes each week.

LAC -2.5 @ DAL WIN 28 - 6 (Margin -22)  Great job Chargers, you rock.

NYG +7.5 @ WAS LOSS 10 - 20 (Margin +10)  I'd like to call this a bad beat, but I'm not sure it qualifies.  Maybe I should DM SVP on the twitter and see if it counts.  I'm sure he'd sympathize.

CAR @ NYJ +4.5 LOSS 35 - 27 (Margin +8)  Just not my week.

SEA @ SF +6.5 LOSS 24 - 13 (Margin +11)  Ditto.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Nov 28 - Dec 4 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.5

Georgia +1 @ Auburn

UMass -1.5 @ Florida International

TCU +7 @ Oklahoma

Ohio State -6 @ Wisconsin

MIN +3 @ ATL

SF @ CHI -3

DET @ BAL -2.5

KC @ NYJ +3.5

PIT @ CIN +5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Record: 3-7-0 (30.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 67-61-4 (52.3 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (13 weeks) 37-31-2 (54.4%) VERSUS SVP 45-42-1 (51.7 %)
NFL 2017 Record (12 weeks):  30-30-2 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  38 of 110 (34.5 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -121.5  (-9.35/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +573.0 (44.08+/week vs +53.42/week spread)