Welcome to Conference Play (For Some?)

Am I the only one that misses the old days when the first three games were always non-conference and week 4 on were conference games?  Maybe that isn't how it used to be, but that's how I remember it, which is all that matters.  Anyway, I digress; not a bad week 3, but could have been better!  There was a 5-0 college week in there had I just mixed and matched a bit better. Purdue, SDSU, and North Texas were all winners.  Oh well, after being 60% for 2 straight weeks we were one game off.  Unfortunately, that one game is the difference between a winning week and a losing week.  Point differential versus spread has been good each week - beating it overall on average.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($2,860) + $2,940 + $110 = $190.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Ball State @ Indiana -15 WIN 10 - 38 (Margin -28) Notre Dame couldn't cover versus the Cardinals, but the Hoosiers had no problem.

Miami @ Toledo +12 LOSS 49 - 24 (Margin +25)  Not really sure what happened at the Glass Bowl, but evidently the Rockets didn't show up.

Hawai'i @ Army -6.5 WIN 21 - 28 (Margin -7)  Black Knights prevail by the slimmest of margins.

New Mexico @ New Mexico State +4 LOSS 42 - 24 (Margin +18)  This one was close and got out of hand quickly.  Four point game at the half.  I had this as likely being an outright win.

Eastern Michigan +3.5 @ Buffalo LOSS 28 - 35 (Margin +7)  In a game that featured nearly 500 yards of offense for EACH team, E. Mich. lost by 7 and not by 3. Damn.

LAC @ BUF +7 LOSS 31 - 20 (Margin +11)  Oh my for being so bad and starting a rookie QB, they nearly pulled off the back door cover.

MIN @ GB +7 WIN 29 - 29 (Margin +0)  For the second week in a row, the NFL had a tie (and we cashed a winner).

PHI @ TB +3.5 WIN 21 - 27 (Margin -6)  The Bucs are outright winners for the second week in a row.

NE @ JAX +1 WIN 20 - 31 (Margin -11)  Rematch of the AFC title game and we have a different result.

KC @ PIT -4 LOSS 42 - 37 (Margin +5)  Well, I can't say that the offense is the problem.....

Well here we go, a few that didn't make the board include W. Kentucky, Nevada, SMU, and Purdue (again).  SMU is out because I took them earlier and they got beat, even though it was only a one score game (against the number).

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 picks!  Sep 18 - Sep 24 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Clemson @ Ga. Tech +16

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +7

Western Michigan @ Ga. State +7.5

North Texas @ Liberty +14

Georgia @ Missouri +14.5

BUF +16.5 @ MIN

TEN +9.5 @ JAX

GB @ WAS +2.5

NE @ DET +7

CHI @ ARI +6

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 5-5-0 (50.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 14-11-1 (56.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (3 weeks) 7-7-1 (50.00 %) VERSUS SVP 8-12-0 (40.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (2 weeks):  7-4-0 (63.64 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  6 of 21 (28.6 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +1.5 with spread.  +14.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -31.0  (-10.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +118.0 (+39.33/week vs +49.67/week spread)