College Football Hates Me

I realize that I didn't give a proper intro to this season for the first time readers (all 2 of you), but here we go anyway.  I make picks purely based on betting trends.  Almost zero personal knowledge is used.  I don't have the information that the odds makers do, nor do I have the information that the "sharps" have.  If you understand sports gambling, you know that people offering the bets (we'll just call them Vegas), makes money no matter the outcome if they keep the amount wagered from both sides close to even.  They manipulate the spread to encourage betting on one side or another in order to keep it even.  On occasion, the spread is seen by some to be too low or high and big money comes in on the advantaged side.  This money is generally from professional handicappers, of which are known to Vegas and will cause the spread to move dramatically or hold on the same number despite the total number of bets being skewed to one side (typically the favorite) by a large margin (70-30% at least).  In those cases, it is thought by me and the opinion of some others that the "smart" money is on the 30% side which is usually the underdog.   Each week I look for instances like this and make picks based on that information, trying to always be on the "smart" money side - because hey, they did the research for me.  I'm just trying to cash in on their hard work.  So, as far as you can tell from my first three years, it's worked just about 50% of the time, which is enough to lose money.  Anyway, this generally leads to fading the public and betting on really ugly lines - games where Joey Bagodonuts thinks it's a sure win.  Well here's the thing about that - Vegas isn't in the business of losing money, so why on earth would they set spreads where every dope in America is going to say, "Man! The Pats are only laying 7 versus the Lions?  I'll put the mortgage on that! Tommy Brady is going to smoke them by 30!"  The answer is clearly because they know that if they put it any higher, the "smart" money is going to come in HARD and FAST which could actually put them at risk.  That's why.  Generally, they set spreads higher then what they may believe, because the public loves favorites, and Vegas loves taking dumb people's money.  Don't get me wrong, you can still win betting favorites, plenty of those bets are winners every week, but as I said before, I don't have the information to put me in a position to actually handicap games myself, so I use trend stats that show me (hopefully) which side has the smart money.  That of course doesn't mean a guaranteed win either, but it is winning better than I could do on my own (in my opinion) and evidenced by this blog experiment.  

Anyway, on to last week's winners that weren't winners since I didn't make them official.  W. Kentucky, SMU, and Purdue were all winners last week, but I didn't put them on the board.  What an idiot.  Tough break, there's always Fubu.  Good thing the NFL was perfect 5-0.  As seen by the bank below, we're up $350 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($3,960) + $4,200 + $110 = $350.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Clemson @ Ga. Tech +16 LOSS 49 - 21 (Margin +28) No comment.

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +7 LOSS 56 - 27 (Margin +29)  No comment.

Western Michigan @ Ga. State +7.5 LOSS 34 - 15 (Margin +19)  No comment.

North Texas @ Liberty +14 LOSS 47 - 7 (Margin +40)  WTF happened here?

Georgia @ Missouri +14.5 WIN 43 - 29 (Margin +14) My goodness I can't believe this was a winner.

BUF +16.5 @ MIN WIN 27 - 6 (Margin -21)  NFL is a weird sport sometimes.

TEN +9.5 @ JAX WIN 9 - 6 (Margin -3)  NFL is a weird sport sometimes (again).

GB @ WAS +2.5 WIN 17 - 31 (Margin -14)  This one wasn't really a shocker.

NE @ DET +7 WIN 10 - 26 (Margin -16)  Patriots suck in September every year it seems like - just toying with the rest of the league.  Trying out different personnel, different packages, what not - they don't care about winning until October.

CHI @ ARI +6 WIN 16 - 14 (Margin +2)  Should have been another outright win, but the new coach thought it a good idea to put in a rookie with about 3-4 minutes left being down 2 points.  Good time for baptism by fire?  If you want to lose for sure, that's a good move.  Kid almost cost us the winner by throwing a pick-6 on the last play of the game, but luckily there was a defensive penalty called.

Here are 10 picks you're guaranteed to hate!  Well don't doubt them until you've faded all of them (if you dare).  I'd fade the NCAAF picks because you can't trust those damn kids to do anything.  Whatever, I'll still keep it up.  Some that didn't make the card because they were favorites or I just didn't pick them but still looked good were Buffalo, Ball State, Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, Toledo, and Clemson.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 picks!  Sep 25 - Oct 1 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Pittsburgh +13.5 @ Central Florida

Massachusetts +13.5 @ Ohio

Oklahoma State @ Kansas +17

BYU @ Washington -17

Ohio State @ Penn State +3.5

CIN +5 @ ATL

NYJ +7.5 @ JAX

PHI @ TEN +4

HOU +1 @ IND

KC @ DEN +5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Record: 6-4-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 20-15-1 (57.14 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (4 weeks) 8-11-1 (42.11 %) VERSUS SVP 12-16-0 (40.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (3 weeks):  12-4-0 (75.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  10 of 31 (32.26 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -53.5  (-13.38/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +196.0 (+49.00/week vs +62.38/week spread)