Friday, September 7, 2018

Not the Official Blog of Nike

Week 1 is always scary - especially in college ball.  Big spreads, little knowledge about roster turnover, David vs. Goliath type match ups.  Even so, I'll take 60% every week! Giddyup.

2018 Theoretical bank is ($550) + $630 + $0 = $80.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

App. St. +24 @ Penn St. WIN 38 - 45 OT (Margin +7)  Wowsers, I didn't watch this but I bet it was exciting.  After just seeing if it was exciting, I would have considered turning it off at half since it was a punt fest, but would have continued watching because it was tied 10-10 and still had major upset potential.  App. St. had a 56 yard FG try for the win (15 seconds left), but missed.  Then they threw a pick in OT on 1st down after converting a 4th and 1.

Kent St. +16.5 @ Illinois WIN 24 - 31 (Margin +7)  Nice work by the Golden Flashes.

Texas St. +16.5 @ Rutgers LOSS 7 - 35 (Margin +28)  That sucks.

La. Tech @ So. Alabama +10.5 WIN 30 - 26 (Margin +4)  Jags couldn't pull off the home opener.  Shucks.

West Virginia @ Tennessee +10 (n) LOSS 40 - 14 (Margin +26)  Guess they should have been getting more points?

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 picks!  Sep 4 - Sep 10 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

TCU @ SMU +23.5

Mississippi State @ Kansas State +7.5

Duke +3 @ Northwestern

Kansas +5 @ Central Michigan

Utah @ Northern Illinois +11

PIT @ CLE +3.5

SF @ MIN -6.5

TB +9.5 @ NO

CIN @ IND -3 (11:55 AM edit TEN @ MIA +1.5) Bengals had huge line movement within the last 12 hours and are now favored.... So I will keep my original but add Miami.

LAR @ OAK +4

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 3-2-0 (60.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (1 weeks) 3-2-0 (60.00 %) VERSUS SVP 2-3-0 (40.00 %)
NFL 2018 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0 (0.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  0 of 5 (0.0 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -5.5  (-5.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +72.0 (+72.00/week vs +77.50/week spread)

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