Saturday, December 9, 2017

Post-Turkey Day Turnaround

Better late than never.

Theoretical bank is ($15,620) + $15,330 + $550 = $260.

Last week was pretty good.  Back in black.

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.5 WIN 17 - 28 (Margin -11)  Winning on the field.

Georgia +1 @ Auburn WIN 28 - 7 (Margin -21)  Strange game this football.

UMass -1.5 @ Florida International LOSS 45 - 63 (Margin +18)  Talk about a barn burner.

TCU +7 @ Oklahoma LOSS 17 - 41 (Margin +24)  No more doubting Baker.

Ohio State -6 @ Wisconsin PUSH 21 - 27 (Margin -6)  Bucks should have put them away.

MIN +3 @ ATL WIN 14 - 9 (Margin -5)  The Bikes are annihilating ATS.

SF @ CHI -3 LOSS 15 - 14 (Margin +1)  I picked SF to win straight up in my other leagues.  I think this was a mistake.

DET @ BAL -2.5 WIN 20 - 44 (Margin -24)  Holla at those Ravens.

KC @ NYJ +3.5 WIN 31 - 38 (Margin -7)  On the field.

PIT @ CIN +5 WIN 23 - 20 (Margin +3)  Nearly on the field.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 5 - Dec 11 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Army +2.5 @ Navy (n)

GB @ CLE +3

DAL @ NYG +4

MIN @ CAR -2.5

PHI @ LAR -2

NE @ MIA +11

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 6-3-1 (66.67 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 73-64-5 (53.3%)
NCAAF 2017 Record (14 weeks) 39-33-3 (54.2%) VERSUS SVP 47-45-1 (51.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (13 weeks):  34-31-2 (52.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  42 of 116 (36.2 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14:  -37.0 with spread.  -28 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -158.5  (-11.32/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +573.0 (44.08+/week vs +53.42/week spread)

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