2017 Recap and Moving Upward and Onward!

Well 2017 NCAAF season ended, which evidently made me lose interest in selecting winners each week.  It was a long season.  Let's take a look at how I could have ended up, if I actually put money down.  Remember, this is for entertainment and training purposes only.  Someday, I might be a good football handicapper.

Theoretical bank is ($16,280) + $15,960 + $550 = $230.

Pushed at 3-3 last week of the season. Could argue there were a couple bad beats, but whatever. Finished the season in the BLACK.  Theoretical bank is based on making $110 wager with regular -110 odds against the spread of all the games listed in my 2017 football season posts.  To make a decent amount of coin, you need to get up near 60% (that would be 10 more wins for me this season).  That would up the net winnings to $2,330.  Guess what! 2018 season is a clean slate. Let's go!

Here's what the final week looked like - only 1 college game on the slate.

Army +2.5 @ Navy WIN 14 - 13 (Margin -1)  Winning on the field.

GB @ CLE +3 LOSS 27 - 21 (Margin +6)  Oh I remember this game, when GB was LOSING to the WIN LESS Browns, but manged to tie the game and force OT.  The Browns WIN the OT toss, but still turn the ball over and lose on a TD.  I'd call this a bad beat, but it is the Browns so that I guess is business as usual. Just kick the FG, please.

DAL @ NYG +4 LOSS 30 - 10 (Margin +20)  How does Vegas set lines like this and make money?

MIN @ CAR -2.5 WIN 24 - 31 (Margin -7)  Didn't like how this line was for my hometown boys.  Vikes probably should have still won.  They gave up 2 huge runs in the game, one with about 2 minutes left.  Big time missed tackle.

PHI @ LAR -2 LOSS 43 - 35 (Margin +8)  So the Rams go up 35 - 28 in this one AND Wentz goes down.  Nick Foles comes in and they win this game and the Super Bowl.  You can't make this shit up.  Nearly forgot that there was a TD scored with no time left after the Rams tried to do a bunch of stupid laterals.  Wouldn't affect the bet outcome, but it hurts my point diff.  Lame.

NE @ MIA +11 WIN 20 - 27 (Margin -7)  Winning on the field.

Here is a breakdown of the entire 2017 season.

NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Record: 3-3-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 76-67-5 (53.1%)
NCAAF 2017 Record (15 weeks) 40-33-3 (54.8%) VERSUS SVP 48-45-1 (51.6 %)
NFL 2017 Record (14 weeks):  36-34-2 (51.4 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  44 of 120 (36.7 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60.0 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14:  -37.0 with spread.  -28.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15:  +3.0 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -155.5  (-10.36/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +592.0 (39.47+/week vs +49.83/week spread)

After the third year of this experiment, there have been some improvements each year.  Overall, I'm nearly exactly 50% which means Las Vegas has exactly what they want from me.... the juice.

2015 Football Season Record: 47-52-4 (47.4%)

2016 Football Season Record: 41-42-3 (49.4 %)

2017 Football Season Record: 76-67-5 (53.1%)

Overall Football Record (3 years) 164-161-12 (50.5%)

Theoretical Bank (3 years) ($37,070) + $34,440 + $1,320 = ($1,310)