SKI-U-MAH!

Had a wonderful time up in the Twin Cities watching the Gophers roll the Huskers (hence why I was late to the party for picks - driving all afternoon/evening Friday night and up early for an 11 o'clock kick on Sat).  Made those picks sitting at Stub and Herbs outside the stadium.  I had already done a little research and had some idea of who I [see Vegas] liked). End sidebar:  Anyway, I (or anyone in the universe) didn't see that offensive explosion coming.  Guess Croft was setting up the QB keepers during the first 4 B1G games to break them out in this one.

Theoretical bank is ($12,320) + $12,390 + $440 = $510.

Here's what happened last week.  Held it together pretty well. Just a 0.5 point away from a 7-3 week. Alas only 6-4.

Va. Tech @ Ga. Tech +3 WIN 22 - 28 (Margin -6)  Thank goodness for the hook.

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech +4 LOSS 48 - 23 (Margin +25)  No good.

Georgia @ Auburn +2.5 WIN 17 - 40 (Margin -23)  War Eagle.

Alabama @ Mississippi State +14.5 WIN 31 - 24 (OT) (Margin +7)  Like Gus Johnson says in the BWWs commercial, "This one's headed to OVERTIME."

Notre Dame @ Miami (FL) +3.5 WIN 8 - 41 (Margin -33)  Absolutely trucked 'em.

NO @ BUF +3 LOSS 47 - 10 (Margin +37)  Wrecked point diff for the week.

LAC @ JAX -3.5 LOSS 17 - 20 (OT) (Margin -3)  Score a TD in OT you stupid jungle cats.

DAL +3 @ ATL LOSS 7 - 27 (Margin +20)  Lose Sean Lee on Dallas defense, it becomes less effective than the Huskers new 3-4 scheme.

MIN -1 @ WAS WIN 38 - 30 (Margin -8)  The Bikes are something like 6-2-1 ATS this year - two losses coming in the only two straight up losses.

NYG @ SF +2.5 WIN 21 - 31 (Margin -10)  Look at those Niners NOT going win-less on the season.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Picks!  Nov 14 - Nov 20 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

So. Alabama @ Georgia So. +5

Purdue +7.5 @ Iowa

Iowa State @ Baylor +9

Missouri @ Vanderbilt +8.5

Marshall @ UTSA +1

DET @ CHI +2.5

KC @ NYG +10.5

JAX @ CLE +7.5

LAR @ MIN -2

NE @ OAK +6.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 59-49-4 (54.6 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (11 weeks) 33-25-2 (56.9%) VERSUS SVP 39-32-1 (54.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (10 weeks):  26-24-2 (52.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  33 of 94 (35.1 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -44.5  (-4.05/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +545.0 (+49.55/week vs +53.60/week spread)

It's Turning Into a Grind

I might have been a few barley pops deep when I made these picks, but there were so many I liked, that I went with 10.  Started off good, then went cold in the night games.  NFL was horrible.

Theoretical bank is ($11,220) + $11,130 + $440 = $350.

Here's what happened last week.

Clemson @ NC State +7.5 WIN 38 - 31 (Margin +7)  Thank goodness for the hook.

Colorado +4 @ Arizona St. LOSS 30 - 41 (Margin +11)  No good.

New Mexico St. @ Texas St. +10 PUSH 45 - 35 (Margin +10)  Push is a win.

Georgia St. @ Georgia So. +4 PUSH 21 - 17 (Margin +4)  Throw out the records when these two teams get together!  They must have because Georgia So. was 0-7 entering the game only catching 4.

Appalachian St. @ UL Monroe +9.5 WIN 45 - 52 (Margin -7)  On the field.

Coastal Carolina +24 @ Arkansas WIN 38 - 39 (Margin +1)  Should have been on the field.  Crazy talk the 1-8 Chanticleers could compete with big bad SEC team.

Wake Forest +14 @ Notre Dame WIN 37 - 48 (Margin +11)  Good enough.

San Diego St. @ San Jose St. +23.5 LOSS 52 - 7 (Margin +45)  Maybe if the Spartans wouldn't have given up 554 yards on the ground they would have covered the spread.

Oregon St. +7.5 @ California LOSS 23 - 37 (Margin +14)  One back door TD away.

Stanford -1 @ Washington St. LOSS 21 - 24 (Margin +3)  Weak.

LAR @ NYG +3.5 LOSS 51 - 17 (Margin +34)  Talk about a stinker.

TB +7 @ NO LOSS 10 - 30 (Margin +20)  My goodness the wheels have fallen off this week.

DEN +8.5 @ PHI LOSS 23 - 51 (Margin +28)  If you wanna crown them, then crown their ass.

KC @ DAL +1 WIN 17 - 28 (Margin -11)  Rare bright spot.

OAK @ MIA +3 PUSH 27 - 24 (Margin +3)  Thank goodness for a late 2 pointer.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Picks!  Nov 7 - Nov 13 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See previous post.

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Record: 5-7-3 (41.67 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 53-45-4 (54.1 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (10 weeks) 29-24-2 (54.7%) VERSUS SVP 33-30-1 (52.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (9 weeks):  24-21-2 (53.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  29 of 86 (33.7 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -19.0  (-1.9/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +539.0 (+53.9/week vs +55.8/week spread)

Last Second winners

Ga. Tech
Miss st
Convicts (aka Thug U)
La. Tech
Auburn

Take the points on all. Go!
Ski u mah!

NFL

BUF +3
MIN -1
JAX -3.5
DAL +3
SF +2.5

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-POST (kind of)

This is sort of a re-post to show the results of 2 weeks ago.  NCAA picks stay good, but NFL go bad a bit.  Point diff was extremely good though.

Theoretical bank is ($9,570) + $10,080 + $110 = $620.

Here's what happened last week.

Louisville @ Wake Forest +3 WIN 32 - 42 (Margin -10)  On the field.

Washington St. @ Arizona +2.5 WIN 37 - 58 (Margin -21)  On the field.

Appalachian St. @ Massachusetts +4.5 WIN 27 - 30 (2OT) (Margin -3)  On the field.

Louisiana Tech @ Rice +13 LOSS 42 - 28 (Margin +14)  So close to a 5-0 week.

Michigan St. @ Northwestern +2.5 WIN 31 - 39 (3OT) (Margin -8)  On the field.  Second OT game in a row for the Wildcats (foreshadow to next week...).

MIN -9.5 @ CLE (N) WIN 33 - 16 (Margin -17)  You sound like you're from London, Mate.

OAK @ BUF -2.5 WIN 14 - 34 (Margin -20)  Rare favorite winner.

ATL @ NYJ +4.5 LOSS 25 - 20 (Margin +5)  Doggone-it.

CAR @ TB -2  LOSS 17 - 3 (Margin +14)  Tampa sucks.

PIT @ DET +3 LOSS 20 - 15 (Margin +5)  Stupid Lions.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Picks!  Oct 31 - Nov 6 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See previous post.

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 48-38-1 (55.8 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (9 weeks) 25-20-0 (55.6%) VERSUS SVP 33-30-1 (52.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (8 weeks):  23-18-1 (56.1 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  27 of 72 (37.5 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -66.0  (-7.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +366.0 (+40.67/week vs +48.0/week spread)

Winners any way you want them.

Alright I don't have to post a big thing, but I will post my winners simply. Let's go 10 college picks instead.  Count 'em all. Winners.

Clemson @ NC State +7.5

Colorado +4 @ Arizona State

New Mexico St. @ Texas St. +10

Georgia St. @ Georgia So. +4

App. St. @ UL Monroe +9.5

Coastal Carolina +24 @ Arkansas

Wake Forest +14 @ Notre Dame

San Diego St. @ San Jose St. +23.5

Oregon St. +7.5 @ California

Stanford -1 @ Washington St.

LAR @ NYG +3.5

TB +7 @ NO

DEN +8.5 @ PHI

KC @ DAL +1

OAK @ MIA +3

Maybe Bed, Bath, & Beyond. I Don't Know. I Don't Know If We'll Have Enough Time!

Almost like I called it last week.  Had a nice little week.  Even the unofficial picks were good.  UConn won straight up, Boston College destroyed Virginia.  UNC got smashed again.  So glad I didn't take them just to try and prove something from the previous two weeks.  Indiana got beat by 8 so that was probably a loss depending on where you got it.  They were leading in the fourth quarter until they gave up two TDs.  BTW I had FIU down but took it away and put Arizona. Let's see how that works out for me.

Theoretical bank is ($8,470) + $8,820 + $110 = $460.

Here's what happened last week.

So. Florida @ Tulane +11.5 WIN 34 - 28 (Margin +6)  The Bulls still ran a play instead of taking a knee from about the 10 yard line for no reason whatsoever and I nearly broke the TV.

West Virginia @ Baylor +9.5 WIN 38 - 36 (Margin +2)  There's the back back back door cover for which I've been waiting all season.  23 points in the fourth quarter.

UL Monroe @ So. Alabama -4.5 WIN 23 - 33 (Margin -10)  A rare favorite seemed like the winner.

Colorado +10 @ Washington St. LOSS 0 - 28 (Margin +28)  Colorado was so bad this game.  So bad.

Iowa @ Northwestern -2 WIN 10 - 17 (OT) (Margin -7)  Oh boy. Overtime!

KC @ OAK +3 WIN 30 - 31 (Margin -1)  On the field.  What a finish.

NO @ GB +5.5 LOSS 26 - 17 (Margin +9)  I hate the Packers.

BAL @ MIN -5.5 WIN 16 - 24 (Margin -8)  Still too many FGs.

CAR @ CHI +3  WIN 3 - 17 (Margin -14)  Well done defense.

SEA @ NYG +5.5 LOSS 24 - 7 (Margin +17)  Cripes.  Totally killing my point diff this week.

JAX @ IND +3.5  LOSS 27 - 0 (Margin +27)  Even worse.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Picks!  Oct 24 - Oct 30 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Louisville @ Wake Forest +3

Washington St. @ Arizona +2.5

Appalachian St. @ Massachusetts +4.5

Louisiana Tech @ Rice +13

Michigan St. @ Northwestern +2.5

MIN -9.5 @ CLE (N)

OAK @ BUF -2.5

ATL @ NYJ +4.5

CAR @ TB -2

PIT @ DET +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record: 7-4-0 (63.6 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 42-34-1 (55.3 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (8 weeks) 21-19-0 (52.5%) VERSUS SVP 27-28-1 (49.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (7 weeks):  21-15-1 (58.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  23 of 65 (35.4 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -6.0  (-0.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +407.0 (+50.88/week vs +51.63/week spread)

RIP to the Fudge Pack

At some point I've got to have at least a "lucky" week.  Even terrible gamblers win big sometimes.  They just lose way more often.  I guess I should be proud that I'm not one of them as I slowly creep back to 50%.  Let's look how last week's unofficial winners did: Bowling Green (L), Duke (W/P), Oregon St. (W), Boise St. (W), Cincinnati (L).  Still had 5 winners in the games I liked, but couldn't pick the damn right ones.  Forgot to add these earlier, but these are the winners I wrote down but didn't make the list.  Boston College, UConn, North Carolina (would have been 3rd week in a row), and Indiana.

Theoretical bank is ($7,260) + $7,350 + $110 = $200.

Here's what happened last week.

Miami (OH) @ Kent St. +9.5 WIN 14 - 17 (Margin -3)  On the field.

Toledo @ Central Michigan +7.5 LOSS 30 - 10 (Margin +20)  Not so much.

Virginia @ North Carolina +4 LOSS 20 - 14 (Margin +6)  Again, maybe they shouldn't recruit players that need fake classes to stay eligible.

NC State @ Pittsburgh +11 LOSS 35 - 17 (Margin +18)  Well I guess it was a one score game.

Auburn @ LSU +7 WIN 23 - 27 (Margin -4)  On the field.

GB @ MIN +3 WIN 10 - 23 (Margin -13)  Rodgers should have discount double checked his collar bone.

MIA @ ATL -11.5 LOSS 20 - 17 (Margin +3)  Absolute ridiculousness.  I guess that's what you get for taking favorites?  No, this line was pretty ridiculous (at least I thought, I can't remember which side the public was on) and it went up to 13 or 14 by game time.  So again, how does that happen unless Vegas is in the business of losing money?  Falcons pull another Super Bowl meltdown blowing a 17 point lead to lose outright.  Slight difference in that this time it was at home against a Jay Cutler led mediocre Dolphin team in a non-conference regular season game.

DET +5  @ NO LOSS 38 - 52 (Margin +14)  Saints tried to blow this one and Lions did have the ball only down 7 points in the fourth quarter after being down something like 10-44.  Promptly through a pick-six from their own goal line (I think).

CHI +6.5 @ BAL  WIN 27 - 24 (OT) (Margin -3)  As soon as it went to OT, this one was a lock! Bears were leading the whole way.

TB @ ARI +2.5 WIN 33 - 38 (Margin -5)  All Day shows a team what he can do when they block some people.  He's just like Novocaine, just give it time, always works.  Let me be clear though, I don't make picks based on players or my perceived knowledge of the NFL.  Purely based on line movement and betting trends.  I didn't even know they traded/signed Peterson until I saw the highlights.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Picks!  Oct 17 - Oct 23 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

So. Florida @ Tulane +11.5

West Virginia @ Baylor +9.5

UL Monroe @ So. Alabama -4.5

Colorado +10 @ Washington St.

Iowa @ Northwestern -2

KC @ OAK +3 (I did take this one in the Super Contest, but didn't have time to post ahead of the game, so I'll give out 5 more for the zero people that read this)

NO @ GB +5.5

BAL @ MIN -5.5

CAR @ CHI +3

SEA @ NYG +5.5

JAX @ IND +3.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Record: 5-5-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 35-30-1 (53.8 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (7 weeks) 17-18-0 (48.6%) VERSUS SVP 23-25-1 (47.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (6 weeks):  18-12-1 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  21 of 57 (36.8 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -15.5  (-2.21/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +358.0 (+51.14/week vs +53.35/week spread)