RIP to the Fudge Pack

At some point I've got to have at least a "lucky" week.  Even terrible gamblers win big sometimes.  They just lose way more often.  I guess I should be proud that I'm not one of them as I slowly creep back to 50%.  Let's look how last week's unofficial winners did: Bowling Green (L), Duke (W/P), Oregon St. (W), Boise St. (W), Cincinnati (L).  Still had 5 winners in the games I liked, but couldn't pick the damn right ones.  Forgot to add these earlier, but these are the winners I wrote down but didn't make the list.  Boston College, UConn, North Carolina (would have been 3rd week in a row), and Indiana.

Theoretical bank is ($7,260) + $7,350 + $110 = $200.

Here's what happened last week.

Miami (OH) @ Kent St. +9.5 WIN 14 - 17 (Margin -3)  On the field.

Toledo @ Central Michigan +7.5 LOSS 30 - 10 (Margin +20)  Not so much.

Virginia @ North Carolina +4 LOSS 20 - 14 (Margin +6)  Again, maybe they shouldn't recruit players that need fake classes to stay eligible.

NC State @ Pittsburgh +11 LOSS 35 - 17 (Margin +18)  Well I guess it was a one score game.

Auburn @ LSU +7 WIN 23 - 27 (Margin -4)  On the field.

GB @ MIN +3 WIN 10 - 23 (Margin -13)  Rodgers should have discount double checked his collar bone.

MIA @ ATL -11.5 LOSS 20 - 17 (Margin +3)  Absolute ridiculousness.  I guess that's what you get for taking favorites?  No, this line was pretty ridiculous (at least I thought, I can't remember which side the public was on) and it went up to 13 or 14 by game time.  So again, how does that happen unless Vegas is in the business of losing money?  Falcons pull another Super Bowl meltdown blowing a 17 point lead to lose outright.  Slight difference in that this time it was at home against a Jay Cutler led mediocre Dolphin team in a non-conference regular season game.

DET +5  @ NO LOSS 38 - 52 (Margin +14)  Saints tried to blow this one and Lions did have the ball only down 7 points in the fourth quarter after being down something like 10-44.  Promptly through a pick-six from their own goal line (I think).

CHI +6.5 @ BAL  WIN 27 - 24 (OT) (Margin -3)  As soon as it went to OT, this one was a lock! Bears were leading the whole way.

TB @ ARI +2.5 WIN 33 - 38 (Margin -5)  All Day shows a team what he can do when they block some people.  He's just like Novocaine, just give it time, always works.  Let me be clear though, I don't make picks based on players or my perceived knowledge of the NFL.  Purely based on line movement and betting trends.  I didn't even know they traded/signed Peterson until I saw the highlights.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Picks!  Oct 17 - Oct 23 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

So. Florida @ Tulane +11.5

West Virginia @ Baylor +9.5

UL Monroe @ So. Alabama -4.5

Colorado +10 @ Washington St.

Iowa @ Northwestern -2

KC @ OAK +3 (I did take this one in the Super Contest, but didn't have time to post ahead of the game, so I'll give out 5 more for the zero people that read this)

NO @ GB +5.5

BAL @ MIN -5.5

CAR @ CHI +3

SEA @ NYG +5.5

JAX @ IND +3.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Record: 5-5-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 35-30-1 (53.8 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (7 weeks) 17-18-0 (48.6%) VERSUS SVP 23-25-1 (47.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (6 weeks):  18-12-1 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  21 of 57 (36.8 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -15.5  (-2.21/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +358.0 (+51.14/week vs +53.35/week spread)