Friday, October 27, 2017

Maybe Bed, Bath, & Beyond. I Don't Know. I Don't Know If We'll Have Enough Time!

Almost like I called it last week.  Had a nice little week.  Even the unofficial picks were good.  UConn won straight up, Boston College destroyed Virginia.  UNC got smashed again.  So glad I didn't take them just to try and prove something from the previous two weeks.  Indiana got beat by 8 so that was probably a loss depending on where you got it.  They were leading in the fourth quarter until they gave up two TDs.  BTW I had FIU down but took it away and put Arizona. Let's see how that works out for me.

Theoretical bank is ($8,470) + $8,820 + $110 = $460.

Here's what happened last week.

So. Florida @ Tulane +11.5 WIN 34 - 28 (Margin +6)  The Bulls still ran a play instead of taking a knee from about the 10 yard line for no reason whatsoever and I nearly broke the TV.

West Virginia @ Baylor +9.5 WIN 38 - 36 (Margin +2)  There's the back back back door cover for which I've been waiting all season.  23 points in the fourth quarter.

UL Monroe @ So. Alabama -4.5 WIN 23 - 33 (Margin -10)  A rare favorite seemed like the winner.

Colorado +10 @ Washington St. LOSS 0 - 28 (Margin +28)  Colorado was so bad this game.  So bad.

Iowa @ Northwestern -2 WIN 10 - 17 (OT) (Margin -7)  Oh boy. Overtime!

KC @ OAK +3 WIN 30 - 31 (Margin -1)  On the field.  What a finish.

NO @ GB +5.5 LOSS 26 - 17 (Margin +9)  I hate the Packers.

BAL @ MIN -5.5 WIN 16 - 24 (Margin -8)  Still too many FGs.

CAR @ CHI +3  WIN 3 - 17 (Margin -14)  Well done defense.

SEA @ NYG +5.5 LOSS 24 - 7 (Margin +17)  Cripes.  Totally killing my point diff this week.

JAX @ IND +3.5  LOSS 27 - 0 (Margin +27)  Even worse.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Picks!  Oct 24 - Oct 30 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Louisville @ Wake Forest +3

Washington St. @ Arizona +2.5

Appalachian St. @ Massachusetts +4.5

Louisiana Tech @ Rice +13

Michigan St. @ Northwestern +2.5

MIN -9.5 @ CLE (N)

OAK @ BUF -2.5

ATL @ NYJ +4.5

CAR @ TB -2

PIT @ DET +3


*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.


Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record: 7-4-0 (63.6 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 42-34-1 (55.3 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (8 weeks) 21-19-0 (52.5%) VERSUS SVP 27-28-1 (49.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (7 weeks):  21-15-1 (58.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  23 of 65 (35.4 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -6.0  (-0.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +407.0 (+50.88/week vs +51.63/week spread)

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