Why Do I Do This?

I don't really have an answer.  The trends sure seem to point to the fact that I cannot make money in sports betting.  I can only win a minimal amount with a ton of risk, or more likely break even or lose.  For instance, let's keep a theoretical bank going now.  Assume odds on all games against the spread are the typical -110 (bet amount to win $100).  Say I put $110 on every game.  Of the 56 games selected so far (not including this week since we don't have results yet), that's a $6,160 investment.  I got my investment of $110 back plus $100 on 30 of those games which equals $6,300.  I got only my investment back on one of the games (push) which is $110.  So my bank is -$6160 + $6,300 + $110 = $250.  So at what point can this be a worthwhile source of income?  Say I started betting $1,100 instead of $100.  With the same results my bank goes up to $2,500. I'd also need to be okay with potentially losing $61,600.  Yikes!  Good thing this is just an experiment for entertainment purposes only.

Anyway, just like I said in my last post, I would take credit for the winners that I didn't select as "official."  Those were Buffalo, UTEP, and Kent St.  If I would have taken all of those unofficial picks, we'd be 5-6 on the week so whoopie.  But the point is, I had 5 winners in that list, and I took the wrong ones.  Let's give some unofficial picks again.  Bowling Green, Duke, Oregon St., Boise St., Cincinnati.

Here's what happened last week.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina +16 LOSS 33 - 10 (Margin +23)  Maybe they shouldn't recruit kids that need to take fake classes for college credit to stay eligible.

Marshall @ Charlotte +15 WIN 14 - 3 (Margin +11)  What a barn burner!

UL Monroe @ Texas State +7 LOSS 45 - 27 (Margin +18)  Combined for 39 points in the first QUARTER and State had the lead.  Then State only scored 7 more in the game.  Dumb.

Miami (FL) @ Florida State +3 LOSS 24 - 20 (Margin +4)  The teams trade scores in the last 1:30 with the Canes taking the lead in the last seconds.  Good clock management, Noles.  FFS.

LSU +2.5 @ Florida WIN 17 - 16 (Margin -1)  On the field.

CAR +2.5 @ DET WIN 27 - 24 (Margin -3)  On the field.  Winning!

BUF @ CIN -3 WIN 20 - 16 (Margin -4)  The real question you had to ask yourself on this was, "How are the Bengals favored unless sportsbooks like losing money?"

ARI +6.5 @ PHI LOSS 7 - 34 (Margin +27)  That's not cool.  That line stunk to high heaven.

KC @ HOU +0 (Pick)  LOSS 42 - 34 (Margin +8)  Another stinker - JJ Watt going down didn't help the cause.

MIN -3 @ CHI PUSH 20 - 17 (Margin -3)  That's as ugly of a game as you might ever see.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Picks!  Oct 10 - Oct 16 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Miami (OH) @ Kent St. +9.5

Toledo @ Central Michigan +7.5

Virginia @ North Carolina +4

NC State @ Pittsburgh +11

Auburn @ LSU +7

GB @ MIN +3

MIA @ ATL -11.5

DET +5  @ NO

CHI +6.5 @ BAL

TB @ ARI +2.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Record: 4-5-1 (44.4 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 30-25-1 (54.5 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (6 weeks) 15-15-0 (50.0%) VERSUS SVP 18-23-1 (43.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (5 weeks):  15-10-1 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  16 of 48 (33.3 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -4.0  (-0.67/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +325.0 (+54.17/week vs +54.84/week spread)