Monday, November 6, 2017

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-POST (kind of)

This is sort of a re-post to show the results of 2 weeks ago.  NCAA picks stay good, but NFL go bad a bit.  Point diff was extremely good though.

Theoretical bank is ($9,570) + $10,080 + $110 = $620.

Here's what happened last week.

Louisville @ Wake Forest +3 WIN 32 - 42 (Margin -10)  On the field.

Washington St. @ Arizona +2.5 WIN 37 - 58 (Margin -21)  On the field.

Appalachian St. @ Massachusetts +4.5 WIN 27 - 30 (2OT) (Margin -3)  On the field.

Louisiana Tech @ Rice +13 LOSS 42 - 28 (Margin +14)  So close to a 5-0 week.

Michigan St. @ Northwestern +2.5 WIN 31 - 39 (3OT) (Margin -8)  On the field.  Second OT game in a row for the Wildcats (foreshadow to next week...).

MIN -9.5 @ CLE (N) WIN 33 - 16 (Margin -17)  You sound like you're from London, Mate.

OAK @ BUF -2.5 WIN 14 - 34 (Margin -20)  Rare favorite winner.

ATL @ NYJ +4.5 LOSS 25 - 20 (Margin +5)  Doggone-it.

CAR @ TB -2  LOSS 17 - 3 (Margin +14)  Tampa sucks.

PIT @ DET +3 LOSS 20 - 15 (Margin +5)  Stupid Lions.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Picks!  Oct 31 - Nov 6 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See previous post.


*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.


Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 48-38-1 (55.8 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (9 weeks) 25-20-0 (55.6%) VERSUS SVP 33-30-1 (52.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (8 weeks):  23-18-1 (56.1 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  27 of 72 (37.5 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -66.0  (-7.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +366.0 (+40.67/week vs +48.0/week spread)

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