Friday, November 17, 2017

SKI-U-MAH!

Had a wonderful time up in the Twin Cities watching the Gophers roll the Huskers (hence why I was late to the party for picks - driving all afternoon/evening Friday night and up early for an 11 o'clock kick on Sat).  Made those picks sitting at Stub and Herbs outside the stadium.  I had already done a little research and had some idea of who I [see Vegas] liked). End sidebar:  Anyway, I (or anyone in the universe) didn't see that offensive explosion coming.  Guess Croft was setting up the QB keepers during the first 4 B1G games to break them out in this one.

Theoretical bank is ($12,320) + $12,390 + $440 = $510.

Here's what happened last week.  Held it together pretty well. Just a 0.5 point away from a 7-3 week. Alas only 6-4.

Va. Tech @ Ga. Tech +3 WIN 22 - 28 (Margin -6)  Thank goodness for the hook.

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech +4 LOSS 48 - 23 (Margin +25)  No good.

Georgia @ Auburn +2.5 WIN 17 - 40 (Margin -23)  War Eagle.

Alabama @ Mississippi State +14.5 WIN 31 - 24 (OT) (Margin +7)  Like Gus Johnson says in the BWWs commercial, "This one's headed to OVERTIME."

Notre Dame @ Miami (FL) +3.5 WIN 8 - 41 (Margin -33)  Absolutely trucked 'em.

NO @ BUF +3 LOSS 47 - 10 (Margin +37)  Wrecked point diff for the week.

LAC @ JAX -3.5 LOSS 17 - 20 (OT) (Margin -3)  Score a TD in OT you stupid jungle cats.

DAL +3 @ ATL LOSS 7 - 27 (Margin +20)  Lose Sean Lee on Dallas defense, it becomes less effective than the Huskers new 3-4 scheme.

MIN -1 @ WAS WIN 38 - 30 (Margin -8)  The Bikes are something like 6-2-1 ATS this year - two losses coming in the only two straight up losses.

NYG @ SF +2.5 WIN 21 - 31 (Margin -10)  Look at those Niners NOT going win-less on the season.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Picks!  Nov 14 - Nov 20 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

So. Alabama @ Georgia So. +5

Purdue +7.5 @ Iowa

Iowa State @ Baylor +9

Missouri @ Vanderbilt +8.5

Marshall @ UTSA +1

DET @ CHI +2.5

KC @ NYG +10.5

JAX @ CLE +7.5

LAR @ MIN -2

NE @ OAK +6.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 59-49-4 (54.6 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (11 weeks) 33-25-2 (56.9%) VERSUS SVP 39-32-1 (54.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (10 weeks):  26-24-2 (52.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  33 of 94 (35.1 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -44.5  (-4.05/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +545.0 (+49.55/week vs +53.60/week spread)

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