I Want People That Wanna WIN!

Well as we move into the 7th week of 2016 football action, things are looking good.  The system is doing it's thing.  I'd like to say I'm much better at identifying games that fit the system.  Not as much research or effort.  I have spotted quite a few before the lines even moved or the ones that were likely not to move.  Usually the action from the sharps comes early (if the value is there) and the line jumps a point one way or the other and then you know based on which way it goes, if it's going to be a good pick almost immediately.  If there is a bunch of action on one side and zero line movement that is also a big indicator.  Washington St. at Stanford was a pretty good one last week, but I didn't pull the trigger.  The line moved so much so early and fast (-12 to -7), that I decided to stay away.  Stanford then took one of the biggest ass beatings that a "ranked" team has taken in recent memory.

Who knows, maybe I'm just getting lucky.  I don't want to win 'em all and I'll take 62% if I can get it.  Let's see if we can keep the train running on the same tracks.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Picks!  Oct 11 - Oct 17 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Nebraska @ Indiana +3.5 LOSS

Vanderbilt +14 @ Georgia WIN

Missouri +13.5 @ Florida (The Gators aren't 13.5 points better than anybody)  LOSS

Utah @ Oregon St. +7.5  WIN

PIT @ MIA +7.5 WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Cincinnati @ UConn +3 WIN 9 - 20 (Margin -11)  High percentage of ATS bets put on Cincy (at least >60% I believe), yet the the line didn't move from +3 all week.  Good indicator of sharp money on UConn.  They pull off an outright win.


• Houston @ Navy +17.5 WIN 40 - 46 (Margin -6)  Even more of a high percentage on Houston compared to Cincy.  I believe this was nearly 90% of the ATS bets.  Line barely waivered from +17 to +17.5.  Navy pulls off a pretty big upset.


• Va. Tech +1.5 @ North Carolina WIN 34 - 3 (Margin -31)  Huge line movement on this game towards Va. Tech.  Started somewhere near UNC -3 and dropped to -1.5 despite most of the action on UNC.  Friday night to Saturday morning before kickoff, Va Tech was favored by 2.  That is major line movement.  Turns out the line didn't matter at all, as long as you were on the right side, which was the Hokies all the week long.


• New England @ Cleveland +12 LOSS 33 - 13 (Margin +20)  Game went downhill after Kessler through the ball backwards into his end zone (for a safety) AND got injured enough to be removed from the game.  I still stand behind this one, a bit of bad luck.  I'd rather be good than lucky.  I'll take luck when it comes, but nobody can be lucky all the time.  Take away the stupidity play that cost them a safety and we're one garbage TD from a winner or if they kick the PAT early in the 4th quarter, we're one score away from a push (with a 4/5th string QB depending on what you call the Pryor Sr./Whitehurst combo).


• Atlanta +5 @ Denver WIN 23 - 16 (Margin -7)  Falcons led from start to finish.  This line dropped from 5.5 or 6 to around 3 or 3.5 by game time.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Record: 4-1-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 18-11-1 (62.1 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (6 weeks) 13-8-1

NFL 2016 Record (5 weeks):  5-3-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  12 of 30 (40 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -62.5  (-10.4/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +156 (+26/week vs +36.4/week spread)

Tennessee Is Luckier Than Auburn's 2013 Squad

That duck came up with another miracle comeback after Georgia had them on the ropes.  Maybe that is putting it lightly.  Georgia takes the lead with 10 seconds left and somehow loses.  Remember when Auburn had that ridiculous stretch of games back in 2013.  There was a tipped ball that fell right into the receivers hands.  Then ran back the ill-advised FG attempt in the Iron Bowl to win the SEC West.  Then won the SEC champ game only to get hosed by a weak PI call in the Natty Title game.  Maybe they weren't that lucky on that one.

Hopefully got some winners down there.  I think they look good.  5 dimes has Cleveland catching 12. Everyone else has 10.5.  Take the best line you can get.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Picks!  Oct 4 - Oct 10 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Cincinnati @ UConn +3 WIN

Houston @ Navy +17.5 WIN

Va. Tech +1.5 @ North Carolina WIN

New England @ Cleveland +12 LOSS

Atlanta +5 @ Denver WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Ohio @ Miami (Ohio) +3 LOSS 17 - 7 (Margin +10) Defensive TD for Ohio with 1:30 left in the game.  Miami lost their starting QB during the game also.  A little bit unlucky here.


• Michigan State @ Indiana +6.5 WIN 21 - 24 OT (Margin -3) Sparty almost spoiled this game by tying the game up with another last second TD.  But then Indiana won because they are better and Sparty is a big pretender this year.


• DET @ CHI +3 WIN 14 - 17 (Margin -3)  Bears get their first win against a crappy Lions team in the NFC North's "Battle for the Basement."


• DEN @ TB +3 LOSS 27 - 7 (Margin +20)  The Bucs couldn't even stop Paxton Lynch from scoring TDs.  Still can't figure how they were only getting 3 points.


• DAL @ SF +2 LOSS 24 - 17 (Margin +7)  Is Dak ever going to turn the ball over?  That would have been nice in this game.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Record: 2-3-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 14-10-1 (58.3 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (5 weeks) 10-8-1

NFL 2016 Record (4 weeks):  4-2-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  8 of 25 (32 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +11.5  (+2.3/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +191 (+38.2/week vs +35.9/week spread)

That's One Strong Duck

As it turns out, a Duck can pull a Truck.  If you don't know what I'm talking about, it is referring to the comments a Florida player made prior to their game against Tennessee.  Something about Florida being the Truck and Tennessee being the Duck and that the Gators were a sure thing to win.  Despite the post title, I didn't make my pick based on some dumb kid's funny comment.  The numbers were there and the Gators held a 21-3 lead at half.  The Duck took some insta-roid/HGH/speed/cocaine mix at half time and came out to pull that Truck anywhere it pleased.  What a meltdown.  Add the bad beat of UCLA in there and it was a good week!  Three outright winners for dogs including two from the city of Buffalo!  Go Bulls and Bills!

Despite the powers of the Duck, I still like Georgia right now, but I didn't include it in the picks.  Pulled it off the board because the Redhawks of Miami were screaming at me.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Picks!  Sep 27 - Oct 3 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ohio @ Miami (Ohio) +3 LOSS

Michigan State @ Indiana +6.5 WIN

DET @ CHI +3 WIN

DEN @ TB +3  LOSS

DAL @ SF +2  LOSS

Here's what last week looked like:

• Army @ Buffalo +14 WIN 20 - 23 (Margin -3) Comeback win for those Bulls (too bad the same couldn't be said for USF's Bulls).


• Florida +4.5 @ Tennessee  LOSS 38 - 28 (Margin +10) After a fairly dominating first half, the Gators forgot to play defense in the second half and gave up 5 TDs.


• Stanford @ UCLA +3  LOSS 22 - 13 (Margin +9)  This game was a winner until 24 seconds left in the game when Stanford kicked the PAT to make it a 3 point game.  So then it was going to be a push.  PUSH is a win.  Then Stanford sacked the QB with no time left and ran the ball back for a worthless TD (for the game, not the betting public).  What a horrendously bad beat.  Yes SVP had this game as I predicted.


• ARI @ BUF +4  WIN 18 - 33 (Margin -15)  Buffalo was up from start to finish.  The wise guys had faith in that new offensive coordinator.


• PIT @ PHI +3.5  WIN 3 - 34 (Margin -31)  Get on the Wentz wagon?  This line was pretty stinky.  I still can't explain what happened.  Didn't watch the game, but saw the score change as the Eagles apparently dominated from start to finish?

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 12-7-1 (63.2 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (4 weeks) 9-7-1

NFL 2016 Record (3 weeks):  3-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  6 of 20 (30 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -2  (-0.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +160 (+40/week vs +40.5/week spread)

Can A Duck Pull A Truck?

Well it was bound to happen.  Got crushed last week.  Couldn't go 89% all year.  Maybe in NFL.  I should have left my bonus pick on there (HINT: It was a winner in the NFL).  I wanted to stick to 5 games per week and I wanted to avoid being a homer by betting on my own team.  The numbers were ripe though and it came through.  As were ATL and CLE (also winners).  Damnit.

I really want to pull the trigger on the Bulls of USF catching 5 against Free Shoes U, because that just doesn't make sense to me.  How on earth are the 'Noles not giving more than a TD to the lowly AAC team?  Sure the Bulls have scored nearly 50 a game in their first three contests, but against Towson, Northern Illinois, and Syracuse?  Hard to measure the worth of those points.  FSU is supposed to one of the best teams in the country, sure they got trounced by Lamar Jackson, but I have a feeling that trend is going to continue in that conference (maybe in any conference, that kid is doing serious things - all the kid does is make touchdowns).  FSU beat a team that has seemed to give Alabama trouble in the last few years, and that is something to think about.  Every dope in America is going to have FSU, so that's why I would say, Vegas must know something we don't.  If they didn't, it would seem that they like to lose money, and we all know that just isn't the case (except for 3 of my winners last week.......).  I'm guessing some oddsmakers may have been fired over the Oklahoma line last week.  Maybe the UTEP one also.  If I had to switch one, I'd take off the Buffalo/Army game (because the damn Black Knights killed me last week) and ride those Bulls at +5.  Hopefully they can stay on for 60 minutes rather than just 8 seconds.  The same logic applies to the Stanford/UCLA game also, but I'm taking that one anyway (because it stinks).  Almost guaranteed to be one of SVPs winners tonight.  Probably USF also.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Picks!  Sep 22 - Sep 26 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Army @ Buffalo +14  WIN

Florida +4.5 @ Tennessee  LOSS

Stanford @ UCLA +3  LOSS

ARI @ BUF +4  WIN

PIT @ PHI +3.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Miami (FL) @ App. State +4 LOSS 45 - 10 (Margin +35) This line stunk..... can't imagine why Vegas would elect to lose money on this game.


• Army @ UTEP +4 LOSS 66 - 14 (Margin +52) WHAT?!  Vegas clearly underestimates the Black Knights. Don't worry I'm going against them again in week 4.  Glutton for punishment.


• Ohio St. @ Oklahoma +1 LOSS 45 - 24 (Margin +21)  Another stinker.  Vegas really likes losing money this week.  The whole world was on Ohio St.  So unless it was going to actually be close, why set the line so low?  Unless of course you want to lose money.


• Navy @ Tulane +5.5 LOSS 21 - 14 (Margin +7)  Finally a close game.  Navy goes for two after last TD.  Would have been a sweet victory had they failed.


• Georgia @ Missouri +6.5 WIN 28 - 27 (Margin +1)  Tigers gave up the go ahead score with 1:30 left in the game.  WINNERS!

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 1-4-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 9-5-1 (64.3 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (3 weeks) 8-5-1

NFL 2016 Record (2 weeks):  1-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 15 (20 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +57  (+19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +190 (+63.3/week vs +44.3/week spread)

Fade Material

SVP had a rough week in WINNERS last week, but we didn't!  Kept up the amazing start to 2016.  Kind of makes me want to put down real money.  Hold on there, tiger. Let's try to rein in the cockiness before we get bit.  Keep your eye on the prize.  Close some tail. Should have been 5-0 last week. Thanks a lot UConn.  Question: If you were the coach of UConn and had zero time outs with 12 seconds remaining and were down 4 points with the ball on the 1 yard line, would you:

A) Call a running play
B) Call a passing play
C) Take a knee
D) Combination of A and C

If you chose A, C, or D, then you must have the same number of working brain cells as the UConn coach. Congratulations.  Sure if the running play works out, you'd never question the call. But seriously, you have to know that is the only play that you have time to run.  Goal line runs get stacked up and take lots of time to sort out.  So if you don't get in the endzone, you aren't running another play because half of your line will still be under a pile of people 15 seconds after the whistle blows.  It's not like it was 4th down either. It was 2nd down. Could have gotten off 3 more plays.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Picks!  Sep 16 - Sep 19 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Miami (FL) @ App. State +4 LOSS

Army @ UTEP +4  LOSS

Ohio St. @ Oklahoma +1 LOSS

Navy @ Tulane +5.5  LOSS

Georgia @ Missouri +6.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Connecticut +4 @ Navy PUSH 24 - 28 (Margin +4) Nice call on last play of the game....


• Central Mich. +21 @ Oklahoma St. WIN 30 - 27 (Margin -3)  Expected the cover, but not the outright win.  Choke job by the Cowboys!


• North Dakota +21.5 @ Bowling Green WIN 26 - 27 (Margin +1)  Sioux go for two and the win......... but come up short.


• Virginia +24 @ Oregon WIN 26 - 44 (Margin +18)  Oregon scored a late meaningless TD that would have lost this bet had the play not been negated for a holding call.


• GB @ JAX +5 WIN 27 - 23 (Margin +4)  Nearly had another outright win.  Game winning TD was dropped in the endzone!  I hate the Packers.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 4-0-1

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 8-1-1 (88.9 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (2 weeks) 7-1-1

NFL 2016 Record (1 weeks):  1-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 10 (30 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up

Total point margin including spread:  -38  (-19/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +74 (+37/week vs +56/week spread)

Bang Biscuit!

Great start to the 2016 season.  Actually a lot of good football games in week 1.  Not so much in week 2 but it does bring back the National Football League.  The board doesn't look all that good this week.  Let's see what I can scratch out.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Picks!  Sep 9 - Sep 12 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Connecticut +4 @ Navy PUSH

Central Mich. +21 @ Oklahoma St. WIN

North Dakota +21.5 @ Bowling Green WIN

Virginia +24 @ Oregon WIN

GB @ JAX +5 WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Kansas State +15.5 @ Stanford WIN 13 - 26 (Margin +13)  Old Bill Snyder.


• Western Mich +5 @ Northwestern WIN 22 - 21 (Margin -1)  As SVP said "ROW THE FREAKIN' BOAT!"


• San Jose St +5 @ Tulsa LOSS 10 - 45 (Margin +35)  What was going on in this game?  Not even going to try and dissect it.


• Clemson @ Auburn +7.5 WIN 19 - 13 (Margin +6)  Auburn should have won this game.


• Notre Dame @ Texas +3.5 WIN 47 - 50 (Margin -3)  Never should have made it to OT!  Cripes.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1 Record: 4-1-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 4-1-0 (80 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (1 weeks) 4-1-0

NFL 2016 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  2 of 5 (40 %)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +13.5  (+13.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +50  (+50/week vs +36.5/week spread)

AND WE'RE BACK!

Well I'm back in the saddle again.  Year 2 of the experiment that I started based on this post.  Last year didn't end well and I ran out of time to make picks.  No need to recap the last week of picks.  It was a crushing defeat on both accounts.  I'm going to crack down on the rules a bit.  Only 5 picks a week.  That's it. I don't care if the numbers are good for 30 games.  Stick to 5 per week.  Narrow it down to the best.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 1 Picks!  Sep 1 - Sep 5 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Kansas State +15.5 @ Stanford  WIN

Western Mich +5 @ Northwestern  WIN

San Jose St +5 @ Tulsa  LOSS

Clemson @ Auburn +7.5  WIN

Notre Dame @ Texas +3.5 WIN

Here is a breakdown of the first season of the system.  Nothing to write home about.  We'll do it better in 2016!

NFL Week 14 Record: 0-2-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 47-52-4 (47.4%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (11 weeks) 32-39-3

NFL 2015 Record (12 weeks):  15-13-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  25 of 95 (26.3%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.
Week 9:  +0.5 with spread.  -7 straight up.
Week 10:  -24.5 with spread.  -4 straight up.
Week 11:  +32.5 with spread.  +82 straight up.
Week 12:  +31.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +297  (+24.75/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +1020  (+85/week vs +60.25/week spread)