I Want People That Wanna WIN!

Well as we move into the 7th week of 2016 football action, things are looking good.  The system is doing it's thing.  I'd like to say I'm much better at identifying games that fit the system.  Not as much research or effort.  I have spotted quite a few before the lines even moved or the ones that were likely not to move.  Usually the action from the sharps comes early (if the value is there) and the line jumps a point one way or the other and then you know based on which way it goes, if it's going to be a good pick almost immediately.  If there is a bunch of action on one side and zero line movement that is also a big indicator.  Washington St. at Stanford was a pretty good one last week, but I didn't pull the trigger.  The line moved so much so early and fast (-12 to -7), that I decided to stay away.  Stanford then took one of the biggest ass beatings that a "ranked" team has taken in recent memory.

Who knows, maybe I'm just getting lucky.  I don't want to win 'em all and I'll take 62% if I can get it.  Let's see if we can keep the train running on the same tracks.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Picks!  Oct 11 - Oct 17 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Nebraska @ Indiana +3.5 LOSS

Vanderbilt +14 @ Georgia WIN

Missouri +13.5 @ Florida (The Gators aren't 13.5 points better than anybody)  LOSS

Utah @ Oregon St. +7.5  WIN

PIT @ MIA +7.5 WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• Cincinnati @ UConn +3 WIN 9 - 20 (Margin -11)  High percentage of ATS bets put on Cincy (at least >60% I believe), yet the the line didn't move from +3 all week.  Good indicator of sharp money on UConn.  They pull off an outright win.


• Houston @ Navy +17.5 WIN 40 - 46 (Margin -6)  Even more of a high percentage on Houston compared to Cincy.  I believe this was nearly 90% of the ATS bets.  Line barely waivered from +17 to +17.5.  Navy pulls off a pretty big upset.


• Va. Tech +1.5 @ North Carolina WIN 34 - 3 (Margin -31)  Huge line movement on this game towards Va. Tech.  Started somewhere near UNC -3 and dropped to -1.5 despite most of the action on UNC.  Friday night to Saturday morning before kickoff, Va Tech was favored by 2.  That is major line movement.  Turns out the line didn't matter at all, as long as you were on the right side, which was the Hokies all the week long.


• New England @ Cleveland +12 LOSS 33 - 13 (Margin +20)  Game went downhill after Kessler through the ball backwards into his end zone (for a safety) AND got injured enough to be removed from the game.  I still stand behind this one, a bit of bad luck.  I'd rather be good than lucky.  I'll take luck when it comes, but nobody can be lucky all the time.  Take away the stupidity play that cost them a safety and we're one garbage TD from a winner or if they kick the PAT early in the 4th quarter, we're one score away from a push (with a 4/5th string QB depending on what you call the Pryor Sr./Whitehurst combo).


• Atlanta +5 @ Denver WIN 23 - 16 (Margin -7)  Falcons led from start to finish.  This line dropped from 5.5 or 6 to around 3 or 3.5 by game time.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Record: 4-1-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 18-11-1 (62.1 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (6 weeks) 13-8-1

NFL 2016 Record (5 weeks):  5-3-0

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  12 of 30 (40 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -62.5  (-10.4/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +156 (+26/week vs +36.4/week spread)