Skol Bikes

Title of the post is referencing how my phone auto-corrects when talking about the Vikes.  Stupid technology.  Solid last week with good chances to win all the bets except probably the Chargers game.  Rivers was awful or the Chef D was good. Who cares if I win 60%?!  Let's go BIKES!

Here's what happened last week.

West Virginia @ Kansas +23 WIN 56 - 34 (Margin +22)  Oh my this game was all over the place.

Florida @ Kentucky +2.5 WIN 28 - 27 (Margin +1)  Wildcats should have won this game outright.  At least Florida didn't miss the PAT and send it to OT.

Rutgers +12 @ Nebraska WIN 27 - 17 (Margin +10)  Talk about scraping by this week.

San Diego St. @ Air Force +3.5 LOSS 28 - 24 (Margin +4)  Just missed the other way.  Falcons had this one!

Hawai'i +5 @ Wyoming LOSS 21 - 28 (OT) (Margin +7)  Don't throw picks in OT - it's a sure way to lose.

BAL @ JAX (London) +3.5 WIN 7 - 44 (Margin -37)  Who are the Jags? Nobody knows.

CLE -1 @ IND LOSS 28 - 31 (Margin +3)  When is the last time the Browns were favored on the road?  I happen to have that info: Oct 19, 2014. Opponent: The 0-5 Jags. So that doesn't even really count (Browns still lost that game BTW).  Browns have only been favored 9 times away from the dog pound in the last 20 years.  Had to take this one because it was so ridiculous.

OAK @ WAS +3 WIN 10 - 27 (Margin -17)  Stifling defense and electric offense.  That's what we expect from the Skins. Oh wait, it's not? Well they still did it.

KC @ LAC +3  LOSS 24 - 10 (Margin +14)  Why do oddsmakers continue to give the Chargers credit?  Because they lost on last second FG misses the first two weeks, didn't look good in this one though - offensively.  Defense held them in the whole game despite 3 INTs from Rivers.

TB @ MIN +3 WIN 17 - 34 (Margin -17)  I'm feelin' Thielen.  Can you Diggs it?!


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Picks!  Sep 26 - Oct 2 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

South Florida @ East Carolina +21

Ohio @ Massachusetts +5.5

Houston @ Temple +13

UConn +17.5 @ SMU

North Texas +7.5 @ So. Mississippi

JAX @ NYJ +3.5

BUF +7.5 @ ATL

DET @ MIN -2.5

PIT @ BAL +3

LAR +6.5 @ DAL

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 21-15-0 (58.3 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (4 weeks) 11-9-0 (55.0%) VERSUS SVP 12-14-1 (46.1%)
NFL 2017 Record (3 weeks):  10-6-0 (62.5 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  10 of 32 (31.3 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -21.0  (-5.25/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +179.0 (+44.75/week vs +50.0/week spread)

You're Gonna Hate All These Picks

Three outright winners in NCAAF and one in NFL.  Not like the spreads were huge or anything, but it still feels good to be a gangsta'.  I need to pay more attention to line movement as we get closer to game time.  I would have probably made a couple different choices.  That's the problem with getting these picks done on Thurdsay each week. Especially with NFL games. But when else to do it?!  Ain't nobody got time for that on Friday night or Saturday morning.  BTW all my NFL games are based on the West Gate Super Contest lines which lock on Wednesday night (around 5 local Vegas time) each week. Also, on those, I went with the dumbest lines of the week and took the opposite of "smart" according to public opinion (I think).  Predicting 5-0.

Here's what happened last week.

Kentucky +7 @ South Carolina WIN 23 - 13 (Margin -10)  Outright winners.

Va. Tech @ East Carolina +23 LOSS 64 - 17 (Margin +47)  Had to get my calculator out for that one.

Purdue @ Mizzou -7.5 LOSS 35 - 3 (Margin +32)  It ain't worth losing if you can't lose big.  Pretty sure everybody in America had Purdue in this game.  Great line Vegas. Maybe do some more research next time instead of "Oh SEC vs B1G, easy - favor SEC team by a TD plus the hook."

UCLA @ Memphis +3 WIN 45 - 48 (Margin -3)  Outright winners.

Kansas St. @ Vanderbilt +3.5 WIN 7 - 14 (Margin -7)  Outright winners.

TEN @ JAX +2.5 LOSS 37 - 16 (Margin +21)  Just a brutal follow up game after beating Houston.

NE @ NO +6.5 LOSS 36 - 20 (Margin +16)  Everybody in the world KNEW the Pats would come in with vengeance after losing week 1.  So why was the spread less than a TD?  Vegas and/or Sharps lost on this one.

MIA +4 @ LAC WIN 19 - 17 (Margin -2)  After an odd week 1 bye for Miami, the Chargers still find a way to blow the last FG in consecutive weeks (Who cares? Was a winner no matter what at that point!).

MIN @ PIT -9  WIN 9 - 26 (Margin -17)  No Bradford announced on Sunday.  Had to change pick and also laid the extra points for fair play.  Line jumped plenty, but not enough to have faith in Case Keenum.

NYJ +14 @ OAK LOSS 20 - 45 (Margin +25)  Fish had no problem dealing with a hurricane and traveling cross country to get a win, what gives Jets?

SF +14 @ SEA WIN 9 - 12 (Margin +3)  What a barn burner.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Picks!  Sep 19 - Sep 25 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

West Virginia @ Kansas +23

Florida @ Kentucky +2.5

Rutgers +12 @ Nebraska

San Diego St. @ Air Force +3.5

Hawai'i +5 @ Wyoming

BAL @ JAX +3.5

CLE -1 @ IND

OAK @ WAS +3

KC @ LAC +3

TB @ MIN +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 6-5-0 (54.5 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 15-11-0 (57.7 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (3 weeks) 8-7-0 (53.3%) VERSUS SVP 7-11-1 (38.9%)
NFL 2017 Record (2 weeks):  7-4-0 (63.6 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  7 of 23 (30.4 %)

Point Differential by week:

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +46.5  (+15.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +189.0 (+63.0/week vs +47.5/week spread)

Row The Boat

Not a bad week as there was a chance to go 4-1.  Two losses were one score from being winners and none were bad beats from what I can tell.  SVP also went 2-3 (I gave him the same ISU line that I had since it was the same game.... and the right side clearly.  I had Tulane on my radar, but didn't pull the trigger.  Should have posted my NFL picks on here, (unofficial Vegas Super Contest picks were 4-1).  Contest rules are here.  I suppose I might as well start posting them each week because I do pick them anyway.  The only dumb rules in my "local contest" is that I'm forced to pick the Vikings game no matter what because we are homers.  Doesn't matter that much, they will likely all be dogs and you will still hate them like my NCAAF picks.  Trust the process.

Here's what happened last week.

W. Michigan +7.5 @ Michigan State LOSS 14 - 28 (Margin +14)  Broncos D and ST did their part in scoring, but not their offense.  One TD form a winner.

E. Michigan +5.5 @ Rutgers WIN 16 - 13 (Margin -3)  Outright winner.  Ouch for Rutgers!

Iowa @ Iowa State +3.5 WIN 44 - 41 (OT) (Margin +3)  Had a nice lead in the 4th quarter, but blew it in regulation and then again in OT.

Indiana @ Virginia +3 LOSS 34 - 17 (Margin +17)  Dumb.

Auburn +4.5 @ Clemson LOSS 6 - 14 (Margin +8)  Cripes.

ATL @ CHI +6.5 WIN 23 - 17 (Margin +6)  Bears nearly had a chance at a PAT for the outright win.

BAL +2.5 @ CIN WIN 20 - 0 (Margin -20)  Baltimore defense came to play.

JAX +5 @ HOU WIN 29 - 7 (Margin -22)  Jacksonville defense also came to play.

IND +4 @ LAR LOSS 9 - 46 (Margin +37)  Go to sleep Scott Tolzien.

NO @ MIN -3 WIN 19 - 29 (Margin -10)  Garbage time TD made it closer than it was.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Picks!  Sep 12 - Sep 18 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Kentucky +7 @ South Carolina

Va. Tech @ East Carolina +23

Purdue @ Mizzou -7.5

UCLA @ Memphis +3

Kansas St. @ Vanderbilt +3.5

TEN @ JAX +2.5

NE @ NO +6.5

MIN +5.5 @ PIT (Bradford out now) I don't want this pick now. I'd take MIA +4 @ LAC

NYJ +14 @ OAK

SF +14 @ SEA

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 9-6-0 (60.0 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (2 weeks) 5-5-0 VERSUS SVP 2-7-1
NFL 2017 Record (1 weeks):  4-1-0 (80.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 14 (21.4 %)

Point Differential by week:

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +2.5  (+1.25/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +84.0 (+42.0/week vs +40.75/week spread)

The Patriots Must Suck

Off to a great start in 2017 (unlike the Pats, didn't watch a single play, but that one is a head-scratcher. Glad I wasn't picking that game)!  I've always said...... I don't wanna win 'em all, just 60%.  I would also like to take this moment to announce that I will put my picks up against SVP (for entertainment purposes only, of course), since we are using essentially the same system.  Winner gets a high five.  ESPN finally learned how to use YouTube this season to post his picks - where it will get a million % more exposure than posting the video on their lame website where it's impossible to find and usually not updated.  Here's a link to his picks.  Unfortunately (for him!), he went 0-4-1.  We did share two losing picks.

Here's what happened last week.

Ball St. +7 @ Illinois WIN 21 - 24 (Margin +3)  Cards probably should have won outright.  Maybe next time fellas.

App. St. +14.5 @ Georgia LOSS 10 - 31 (Margin +21)  Just one score away from a winner.  Start scoring earlier than the 4th quarter next time.

Arkansas St. +14.5 @ Nebraska WIN 36 - 43 (Margin +7)  Nearly had an outright winner again as UNL was gouged in the air for 400+ yards.

Vanderbilt @ Mid. Tenn. St. +3.5 LOSS 28 - 6 (Margin +22)  Statement game for Vandy!?

Tennessee @ Ga. Tech +3 WIN 42 - 41 (2OT) (Margin +1)  Yellow Jackets blew two 14 point leads in this one and then went for 2 and the win in double OT.  Better than losing by 7 in 3OT!


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Picks!  Sep 5 - Sep 11 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music and directional school mania??)

W. Michigan +7.5 @ Michigan State

E. Michigan +5.5 @ Rutgers

Iowa @ Iowa State +3.5

Indiana @ Virginia +3

Auburn +4.5 @ Clemson

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 3-2-0
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 3-2-0 (60 %) VERSUS SVP 0-4-1
NCAAF 2017 Record (1 weeks) 3-2-0
NFL 2017 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  0 of 5 (0 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +11.5  (+11.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +54.0 (+54.0/week vs +42.5/week spread)

College Football is BACK!

Let's start off the 2017 season with a bang biscuit!  A clean slate! A fresh start!  This blog has mostly become about sports betting and the possibility of beating the system by simply monitoring line movement and wager percentages (not total money wagered on either side - but just number of bets on either side).  Obviously odds makers are in this business to MAKE money as opposed to lose it, so they adjust point spreads to minimize their risk (i.e., keep money equal on both sides) so they will only collect the "juice."  On the other side of that, odds makers don't set point spreads based on their prediction of the outcome, not to say the spread doesn't sometimes end up like that because it does, but rather they set point spreads to encourage equal betting on both sides (see risk management statement).  This setting of the point spread falls in line typically with the general public perception of the teams playing.

Example: Team A has a lot of public hype as being "good" and team B has little to no public hype, is unknown, or is thought to be "bad" based on any number of reasons that the public perception uses to form opinions (potentially non-factual evidence).  In reality, Team B is a very tough match up for Team A based on many statistics that are unknown to public opinion.  Team A plays Team B.  Odds makers favor Team A by more points than statistics show they should, based on public opinion.  More people bet on Team A (volume of bets) and maybe even more money is bet on Team A.  Team B easily covers the spread because the line was too high based on statistics and the odds makers clean up with little risk.  Sometimes Team A is favored by more than statistics show they should and it is LESS than what the public opinion deems to be a correct point spread.  This is is known as the stinky line that seems too good to be true, which usually means it is.  Don't fall for those traps.  Take the other side and clean up with the sharks!

Here is a longer version of the system explained in a 2015 post when I started tracking my picks.  Here's a post that recaps the last 2 years.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Picks!  Aug 31 - Sep 4 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ball St. +7 @ Illinois

App. St. +14.5 @ Georgia

Arkansas St. +14.5 @ Nebraska

Vanderbilt @ Mid. Tenn. St. +3.5

Tennessee @ Ga. Tech +3

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 0-0-0
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 0-0-0 (NA %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (0 weeks) 0-0-0
NFL 2017 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  0 of 0 (NA %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +0.0 with spread.  +0.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +0.0  (+0.0/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +0.0 (+0.0/week vs +0.0/week spread)

2016 Season Final Update

Well I ended in the black on NFL by one game.  If all of those games were wagered with the same odds and same values, that would still be a net loss.  Using the standard wager $110 to win $100, that would be a net loss of $50.  Flip one game (change record to 17-14-1) to make a lucrative profit of $160 on a $3,520 investment.  2016 picks were better by a whopping 2% from 2015.  Hurray.  No week 17 picks.

Last year (2015) looked like this:

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 47-52-4 (47.4%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (11 weeks) 32-39-3

NFL 2015 Record (12 weeks):  15-13-1

Here's what last week looked like:

• WAS @ CHI +3 LOSS 41 - 21 (Margin +20)  Nice work bears.


• TB @ NO -3  WIN 24 - 31 (Margin -7)  Go saints.


• ATL @ CAR +3 LOSS 33 - 16 (Margin +17)  Ouch.


• SD @ CLE +5 WIN 17 - 20 (Margin -3)  Never count out the dog pound.


• MIN @ GB -6.5 WIN 25 - 38 (Margin -13)  Fudge the pack.

Here is a breakdown of the 2016 season.

NFL Week 16 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 41-42-3 (49.4 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2 (48.1 %)

NFL 2016 Record (15 weeks):  16-15-1 (51.6 %)

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  25 of 72 (34.7 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.
NFL Week 14:      -3 with spread.  +15 straight up.
NFL Week 15:      +44 with spread.  +45 straight up.
NFL Week 16:      +12.5 with spread.  +14 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +123  (+7.23/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +571 (+33.6/week vs +26.4/week spread)

Packers Suck

WAS @ CHI +3 LOSS
TB @ NO -3  WIN
ATL @ CAR +3 LOSS
SD @ CLE +5 WIN
MIN @ GB -6.5 WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

• PHI +5 @ BAL WIN 26 - 27 (Margin +1)  Go eagles.


• GB @ CHI +4.5 WIN 30 - 27 (Margin +3)  Go bears.


• IND @ MIN -5 LOSS 34 - 6 (Margin +29)  WTF.  One game ruins my weekly differential.


• JAX +3.5 @ HOU WIN 20 - 21 (Margin +1)  Go jags.


• CAR @ WAS -7 LOSS 26 - 15 (Margin +11)  Two games ruin the weekly diff I guess.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NFL Week 15 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 38-40-3 (48.7 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (15 weeks):  13-13-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  24 of 69 (34.8 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.
NFL Week 14:      -3 with spread.  +15 straight up.
NFL Week 15:      +44 with spread.  +45 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +110.5  (+6.91/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +557 (+34.8/week vs +27.9/week spread)