Thursday, September 14, 2017

Row The Boat

Not a bad week as there was a chance to go 4-1.  Two losses were one score from being winners and none were bad beats from what I can tell.  SVP also went 2-3 (I gave him the same ISU line that I had since it was the same game.... and the right side clearly.  I had Tulane on my radar, but didn't pull the trigger.  Should have posted my NFL picks on here, (unofficial Vegas Super Contest picks were 4-1).  Contest rules are here.  I suppose I might as well start posting them each week because I do pick them anyway.  The only dumb rules in my "local contest" is that I'm forced to pick the Vikings game no matter what because we are homers.  Doesn't matter that much, they will likely all be dogs and you will still hate them like my NCAAF picks.  Trust the process.

Here's what happened last week.

W. Michigan +7.5 @ Michigan State LOSS 14 - 28 (Margin +14)  Broncos D and ST did their part in scoring, but not their offense.  One TD form a winner.

E. Michigan +5.5 @ Rutgers WIN 16 - 13 (Margin -3)  Outright winner.  Ouch for Rutgers!

Iowa @ Iowa State +3.5 WIN 44 - 41 (OT) (Margin +3)  Had a nice lead in the 4th quarter, but blew it in regulation and then again in OT.

Indiana @ Virginia +3 LOSS 34 - 17 (Margin +17)  Dumb.

Auburn +4.5 @ Clemson LOSS 6 - 14 (Margin +8)  Cripes.

ATL @ CHI +6.5 WIN 23 - 17 (Margin +6)  Bears nearly had a chance at a PAT for the outright win.

BAL +2.5 @ CIN WIN 20 - 0 (Margin -20)  Baltimore defense came to play.

JAX +5 @ HOU WIN 29 - 7 (Margin -22)  Jacksonville defense also came to play.

IND +4 @ LAR LOSS 9 - 46 (Margin +37)  Go to sleep Scott Tolzien.

NO @ MIN -3 WIN 19 - 29 (Margin -10)  Garbage time TD made it closer than it was.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Picks!  Sep 12 - Sep 18 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Kentucky +7 @ South Carolina

Va. Tech @ East Carolina +23

Purdue @ Mizzou -7.5

UCLA @ Memphis +3

Kansas St. @ Vanderbilt +3.5

TEN @ JAX +2.5

NE @ NO +6.5

MIN +5.5 @ PIT (Bradford out now) I don't want this pick now. I'd take MIA +4 @ LAC

NYJ +14 @ OAK

SF +14 @ SEA

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 9-6-0 (60.0 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (2 weeks) 5-5-0 VERSUS SVP 2-7-1
NFL 2017 Record (1 weeks):  4-1-0 (80.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 14 (21.4 %)

Point Differential by week:

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +2.5  (+1.25/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +84.0 (+42.0/week vs +40.75/week spread)

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