You're Gonna Hate All These Picks

Three outright winners in NCAAF and one in NFL.  Not like the spreads were huge or anything, but it still feels good to be a gangsta'.  I need to pay more attention to line movement as we get closer to game time.  I would have probably made a couple different choices.  That's the problem with getting these picks done on Thurdsay each week. Especially with NFL games. But when else to do it?!  Ain't nobody got time for that on Friday night or Saturday morning.  BTW all my NFL games are based on the West Gate Super Contest lines which lock on Wednesday night (around 5 local Vegas time) each week. Also, on those, I went with the dumbest lines of the week and took the opposite of "smart" according to public opinion (I think).  Predicting 5-0.

Here's what happened last week.

Kentucky +7 @ South Carolina WIN 23 - 13 (Margin -10)  Outright winners.

Va. Tech @ East Carolina +23 LOSS 64 - 17 (Margin +47)  Had to get my calculator out for that one.

Purdue @ Mizzou -7.5 LOSS 35 - 3 (Margin +32)  It ain't worth losing if you can't lose big.  Pretty sure everybody in America had Purdue in this game.  Great line Vegas. Maybe do some more research next time instead of "Oh SEC vs B1G, easy - favor SEC team by a TD plus the hook."

UCLA @ Memphis +3 WIN 45 - 48 (Margin -3)  Outright winners.

Kansas St. @ Vanderbilt +3.5 WIN 7 - 14 (Margin -7)  Outright winners.

TEN @ JAX +2.5 LOSS 37 - 16 (Margin +21)  Just a brutal follow up game after beating Houston.

NE @ NO +6.5 LOSS 36 - 20 (Margin +16)  Everybody in the world KNEW the Pats would come in with vengeance after losing week 1.  So why was the spread less than a TD?  Vegas and/or Sharps lost on this one.

MIA +4 @ LAC WIN 19 - 17 (Margin -2)  After an odd week 1 bye for Miami, the Chargers still find a way to blow the last FG in consecutive weeks (Who cares? Was a winner no matter what at that point!).

MIN @ PIT -9  WIN 9 - 26 (Margin -17)  No Bradford announced on Sunday.  Had to change pick and also laid the extra points for fair play.  Line jumped plenty, but not enough to have faith in Case Keenum.

NYJ +14 @ OAK LOSS 20 - 45 (Margin +25)  Fish had no problem dealing with a hurricane and traveling cross country to get a win, what gives Jets?

SF +14 @ SEA WIN 9 - 12 (Margin +3)  What a barn burner.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Picks!  Sep 19 - Sep 25 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

West Virginia @ Kansas +23

Florida @ Kentucky +2.5

Rutgers +12 @ Nebraska

San Diego St. @ Air Force +3.5

Hawai'i +5 @ Wyoming

BAL @ JAX +3.5

CLE -1 @ IND

OAK @ WAS +3

KC @ LAC +3

TB @ MIN +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 6-5-0 (54.5 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 15-11-0 (57.7 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (3 weeks) 8-7-0 (53.3%) VERSUS SVP 7-11-1 (38.9%)
NFL 2017 Record (2 weeks):  7-4-0 (63.6 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  7 of 23 (30.4 %)

Point Differential by week:

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +46.5  (+15.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +189.0 (+63.0/week vs +47.5/week spread)