Mid-Season Grind Time

Going 50% results in losing the juice.  Last week was a $50 loss.  On to the bank below, we're down $420 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($9,460) + $8,820 + $220 = ($420).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Middle Tenn. St. @ Old Dominion +5 LOSS 51 - 17 (Margin +34)  No comment.

Purdue @ Michigan State +1 WIN 13 - 23 (Margin -10)  Sparty wanna thug.

Duke @ Pittsburgh +2.5 WIN 45 - 54 (Margin -9)  Who had the over also?

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State -1 WIN 13 - 28 (Margin -15)  I need more cow bell.

New Mexico State -1 @ Texas State LOSS 20 - 27 (Margin +7)  Whatever.

WAS @ NYG pick LOSS 20 - 13 (Margin +7)  This one was primed for the "upset."  I think Eli's brother could win with this team.

TB +4.5 @ CIN WIN 34 - 37 (Margin +3)  Fitzmagic comes in and pulls off the comeback only to get let down by the defense in the final minute (it was fine by me).

IND @ OAK +3 LOSS 42 - 28 (Margin +14)  Could Gruden get fired mid-season in his first year?  Anything is possible with the spawn of Al Davis running that team.

GB @ LAR -9.5 LOSS 27 - 29 (Margin -2)  Really?  The Rams can't score on or hold off the Packers unless their kick returner fumbles it back to them?  Pathetic.

NO pick @ MIN WIN 30 - 20 (Margin -10)  Thinking it would be the injury maligned defense that would be the death of the Vikes in this one, it was their two best offensive weapons that handed the Saints the game.

Here are 10 picks that you are guaranteed to hate, but will go 60% or better this week.  I'm not into making guarantees, but I guess I did guaranteed that you'll hate these picks.  So maybe I am into making guarantees.  As Tommy Boy once said, the guarantee is only as good as the man who makes it.  He also said something about a bull, a butcher, and sticking heads up rectal cavities.  It's gotta be your bull.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 picks!  Oct 30 - Nov 5 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Michigan State @ Maryland +3.5

Air Force +5 @ Army

Ga. Tech @ North Carolina +4.5

Missouri +6.5 @ Florida

UCLA +10.5 @ Oregon

DET +4.5 @ MIN

PIT @ BAL -3

LAC +2 @ SEA

LAR +1.5 @ NO

GB +6 @ NE

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 5-5-0 (50.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 42-42-2 (50.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (9 weeks) 19-25-1 (43.18 %) VERSUS SVP 38-35-1 (52.05 %)
NFL 2018 Record (8 weeks):  23-17-1 (57.50 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  17 of 71 (23.94 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +142.5  (+15.83/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +604.0 (+67.11/week vs +51.28/week spread)