Keep Your Oar in the Water

Absolute dumpster fire the last few weeks.  I suppose it's kind of like the stock market, it has a bit of a correction every now and then.  With that kind of thinking, I should go 5-0 in NCAAF this week.  On to the bank below, we're down $370 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($8,360) + $7,770 + $220 = $370.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Oklahoma @ TCU +8 LOSS 52 - 27 (Margin +25)  Dumpster fire.

Miami (Ohio) +8.5 @ Army WIN 30 - 31 (OT) (Margin +1)  Dumpster fire.

Utah State @ Wyoming +14.5 WIN 24 - 16 (Margin +8)  Dumpster fire.

Minnesota +5 @ Nebraska LOSS 28 - 53 (Margin +25)  Dumpster fire.

Kansas +18 @ Texas Tech LOSS 16 - 48 (Margin +32)  Dumpster fire.

MIN @ NYJ +3 LOSS 37 - 17 (Margin +20)  Dumpster fire.

NE @ CHI +3 LOSS 38 - 31 (Margin +7)  Dumpster fire.

NO @ BAL -2.5 LOSS 24 - 23 (Margin +1)  Dumpster fire.

LAR @ SF +9.5 LOSS 39 - 10 (Margin +29)  Dumpster fire.

CIN +6 @ KC LOSS 10 - 45 (Margin +35)  Dumpster fire.

I don't have clarity or confidence, I only have the system.  Just like Novocaine, just give it time, always works.  A rare two favorites in NCAA.... oh man this wreaks of disaster.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 picks!  Oct 23 - Oct 29 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Middle Tenn. St. @ Old Dominion +5

Purdue @ Michigan State +1

Duke @ Pittsburgh +2.5

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State -1

New Mexico State -1 @ Texas State

WAS @ NYG pick

TB +4.5 @ CIN 

IND @ OAK +3

GB @ LAR -9.5

NO pick @ MIN

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record: 2-8-0 (20.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 37-37-2 (50.00 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (8 weeks) 16-23-1 (41.03 %) VERSUS SVP 33-31-1 (51.56 %)
NFL 2018 Record (7 weeks):  21-14-1 (60.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  15 of 66 (22.73 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +128.0  (+16.0/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +585.0 (+73.13/week vs +57.13/week spread)