Gambling, You're a Strange Animal

A bit of reversal last week.  College sucks again.  NFL had some head scratchers that should have been locks.  Chicago, I'm looking in your direction.  Two games destroyed the week's point differential and the overall point differential.  On to the bank below, we're up $310 on the short season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($7,260) + $7,350 + $220 = $310.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Iowa @ Indiana +3.5 LOSS 42 - 16 (Margin +26)  Look at those Hawkeyes surprising everyone.

Nebraska +3.5 @ Northwestern WIN 31 - 34 (OT) (Margin +3)  This was moving into bad beat territory as the Bugeaters blew a 10 point lead with less than 5 minutes to play including a 99 yard drive with around 1 minute left to tie the game.

Louisville +12 @ Boston College LOSS 20 - 38(Margin +18)  Louisville refused to score in the second half.

Texas A&M @ South Carolina +2.5 LOSS 26 - 23 (Margin +3)  The hook cost us on this one. Oh well.

Va. Tech @ North Carolina +7 WIN 22 - 19 (Margin +3)  Go Tar Heels.

CHI -3 @ MIA LOSS 28 - 31 (OT) (Margin +3)  Coming off a bye week, the "best" NFL defense gets a backup QB and since the line locks on Wed, it wasn't up to what Vegas moved it to on Sun AM (-7).  Don't worry, the Bears still lost outright in overtime.

LAC @ CLE +1 LOSS 38 - 14 (Margin +24)  Browns win a divisional game one week and get destroyed by the Chargers the next.

ARI +10 @ MIN PUSH 17 - 27 (Margin +10)  Push is a win.

SEA @ OAK +3 LOSS 27 - 3 (Margin +24)  I didn't realize this game was in London.  Stupid.  The Raiders are bad enough, they don't need to be stripped of what little home field advantage they get.

SF +9.5 @ GB WIN 30 - 33 (Margin +3)  Should have been an outright win.  NFL defense is a joke under 2 minutes.

Not much research done on these suckers.  Fading public if the % of bets was higher than 70 and the spread didn't move.

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 picks!  Oct 16 - Oct 22 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Oklahoma @ TCU +8

Miami (Ohio) +8.5 @ Army

Utah State @ Wyoming +14.5

Minnesota +5 @ Nebraska

Kansas +18 @ Texas Tech

MIN @ NYJ +3

NE @ CHI +3 

NO @ BAL -2.5

LAR @ SF +9.5

CIN +6 @ KC

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Record: 3-6-1 (33.33 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 35-29-2 (54.69 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (7 weeks) 14-20-1 (41.18 %) VERSUS SVP 29-26-1 (52.73 %)
NFL 2018 Record (6 weeks):  21-9-1 (70.00 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  15 of 57 (26.32 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1: -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2: -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +18.0  (+2.57/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +402.0 (+57.43/week vs +54.86/week spread)