Friday, November 9, 2018

Alright, Let's Try to KEEP OUR COMPOSURE

¡Ay Caramba!  Good thing this is all for entertainment purposes only!  It's almost comical how cold of a streak this is.  My hypothetical bookie would be laughing all the way to the bank!  On to the bank below, we're down $890 on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($10,560) + $9,450 + $220 = ($890).  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

Michigan State @ Maryland +3.5 LOSS 24 - 3 (Margin +21).

Air Force +5 @ Army WIN 14 - 17 (Margin +3).

Ga. Tech @ North Carolina +4.5 LOSS 38 - 28 (Margin +10).

Missouri +6.5 @ Florida WIN 38 - 17 (Margin -21).

UCLA +10.5 @ Oregon LOSS 21 - 42 (Margin +21).

DET +4.5 @ MIN LOSS 9 - 24 (Margin +15).

PIT @ BAL -3 LOSS 23 - 16 (Margin +7).

LAC +2 @ SEA WIN 25 - 17 (Margin -8).

LAR +1.5 @ NO LOSS 35 - 45 (Margin +10).

GB +6 @ NE LOSS 17 - 31 (Margin +14).

I'm really tempted to fade all of my OWN picks this week, but nobody likes a quitter.  I'm not quitting on the system.  The system is quitting on me!  Here are 10 more blazing picks that could just sink this ship for good!

Here are your 2018 NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 picks!  Nov 6 - Nov 12 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Mississippi +13 @ Texas A&M

Ohio State @ Michigan State +4

Middle Tennessee State @ UTEP +13.5

Northwestern @ Iowa -10

Southern Mississippi +12 @ UAB

ATL @ CLE +4

NO @ CIN +5.5

NE @ TEN +6.5

LAC @ OAK +9.5

WAS @ TB -3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Record: 3-7-0 (30.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 45-49-2 (47.87 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (10 weeks) 21-28-1 (42.86 %) VERSUS SVP 43-39-1 (52.44 %)
NFL 2018 Record (9 weeks):  24-21-1 (53.33 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  19 of 80 (23.75 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:    -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:    -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:    -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:    -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:    +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:    +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:    +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:    +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:    +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +173.50  (+17.35/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +676.00 (+67.60/week vs +50.25/week spread)

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