Friday, November 18, 2016

I'm Reading, "DON'T KILL YOURSELF" Books!

Does anyone else feel like their winning percentage is just disappearing?  I feel so much like giving up.  But like the men of Troy did last week, I will Fight On.  Got two favorites for you this week plus a bonus pick favorite to try and catch up.  Usually avoid them at all costs, but these look too good again.  Just like the Buckeyes vs Nebraska (but not as good).  Also, after being one of the 3 B1G whipping boy teams, the Illini are catching ONLY 9.5 against the Hawks who proved to be world beaters last week.  That line stinks worse than Louisville's chances to get to the college football playoff after getting trounced by Houston.  Expect a let down from that pesky Iowa squad this week as they avoid getting shocked in Champaign by the slimmest of margins (or blow out Illinois by 77). Let's be honest, anything is possible at this point.  Otherwise the other picks are because everyone is on Ok St., Miami, Wazoo, Stanford, and Arkansas, but the line moved the other way.  That is all.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Picks!  Nov 15 - Nov 21 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Iowa @ Illinois +9.5  LOSS

Oklahoma St. @ TCU -5  LOSS

Miami (FL) @ NC State +3  LOSS

Washington St. @ Colorado -6  WIN

Stanford @ Cal +11  LOSS

Bonus pick: Arkansas @ Mississippi St. -1.5  LOSS

Here's what last week looked like:

  • North Carolina @ Duke +11.5 WIN 27 - 28 (Margin -1)  Outright win starts off the week right.  Hold on tight, we're going to need it.

  • Utah @ Arizona St. +6 LOSS 49 - 26 (Margin +23)  This game got out of hand early.

  • Penn St. @ Indiana +7.5 LOSS 45 - 31 (Margin +14)  Ridiculously bad beat.  IU goes from WINNING OUTRIGHT by 3 with 6:51 to play to losing the game by 14.  Capped off by a sack fumble return for a meaning less TD when they could have fell on it and took one knee to win.

  • Tulsa +1 @ Navy LOSS 40 - 42 (Margin +2)  Lost by a point. Cool.

  • Vanderbilt @ Missouri -3.5 WIN 17 - 26 (Margin -9)  Missouri is bad, but were favored and the line was moving up.  Strange pick, but it had to be the right side.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 2-3-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 28-24-3 (53.8 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (11 weeks) 21-20-2

NFL 2016 Record (10 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  20 of 54 (37.0 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -67  (-6.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +316 (+28.7/week vs +34.8/week spread)

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