Thursday, December 8, 2016

These Bets Stink

Not much to say about last week, I could flip a coin and do better probably.  I have no vision, no clarity.  I'm grasping at straws.  Got some real dog baby games this week.  I'm sure it will work out well.  Five home dogs.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 6 - Dec 12 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

PIT @ BUF +2  LOSS

CHI @ DET +9  WIN

WAS @ PHI +1  LOSS

MIN @ JAX +3  LOSS

DAL @ NYG +3  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

  • DEN @ JAX +3.5 LOSS 20 - 10 (Margin +10)  Denver defense continues to dominate.  The Jags had 3 or 4 possessions in the 4th quarter to make this a winner and still failed.

  • DET @ NO -6 LOSS 28 - 13 (Margin +15)  Drew Brees threw the ball to the other team too many times to overcome.

  • BUF +3 @ OAK LOSS 24 - 38 (Margin +14)  Up 15 points in the middle of the third quarter, the Bills forgot to play defense for the remainder of the game and gave up 29 unanswered points.  If you can figure out how that is possible, please explain it to me.

  • TB @ SD -3.5 LOSS 28 - 21 (Margin +7)  Leading by 4 in the 4th quarter, the Chargers failed to score another point and lost.  Great plan.

  • WAS @ ARI -1 WIN 23 - 31 (Margin -8)  Leading by 1 late in the game, the Cardinals iced it with a long TD pass to avoid an 0-5 week.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 1-4-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 33-35-3 (48.5 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (13 weeks):  8-8-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  22 of 61 (36.1 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +69.5  (+4.96/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +497 (+35.5/week vs +30.54/week spread)

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