Saturday, December 29, 2018

Final Week of the Regular Season

All NFL again this week.  It's official, we are OUT OF THE HOLE.  On to the bank below, we're up $ on the season (based on a $110 bet on each game with -110 odds).

2018 Theoretical bank is ($16,720) + $16,590 + $330 = $200.  (Total amount wagered + winnings + money returned from pushes = net profit/loss)

Here's a summary of last week.

KC @ SEA +2.5  WIN 31 - 38 (Margin -7)  Winning on the field.

TB +7.5 @ DAL WIN 20 - 27 (Margin +7)  Count it!

MIN -5.5 @ DET WIN 27 - 9 (Margin -18)  Keep it rolling Bikes.

CHI @ SF +4 LOSS 14 - 9 (Margin +5)  Thought the Niners were coming through big time in back to back weeks.

DEN @ OAK +2.5 WIN 14 - 27 (Margin -13)  Another outright winner.

One final week push before the playoffs. LET'S GO!

Here are your 2018 NFL Week 17 picks!  Dec 25 - Dec 31 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

PHI @ WAS +6.5

DET +8 @ GB

LAC @ DEN +6.5

CHI @ MIN -4.5

IND @ TEN +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 17/NFL Week 16 Record: 4-1-0 (80.00 %)
Overall 2018 Football Season Record: 79-70-3 (53.02 %)
NCAAF 2018 Record (17 weeks) 33-36-2 (47.83 %) VERSUS SVP 59-56-1 (51.30 %)
NFL 2018 Record (16 weeks):  46-34-1 (57.50 %)
Overall 2018 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  41 of 129 (31.78 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:     -5.5 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:     -27.0 with spread.  +32.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:     -0.5 with spread.  +12.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:     -22.5 with spread.  +78.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:     +3.0 with spread.  +56.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:     +0.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:     +68.0 with spread.  +117.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:     +110 with spread.  +183.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:     +14.5 with spread.  +19.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:   +31.0 with spread.  +72.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11: +30.0 with spread.  +85.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12: +16.5 with spread.  +45.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13: -74.0 with spread.  -40.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14: +29.0 with spread.  +101.0 straight up.
NFL14/NCAA15: -17.5 with spread.  +11.0 straight up.
NFL 15/NCAA16:  -42.5 with spread. -29.0 straight up.
NFL 16/NCAA17:  -37.0 with spread.  -26.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +78.0  (+4.58/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +823.00 (+48.41/week vs +43.83/week spread)

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