Friday, November 20, 2015

I Have No Words. I Am WITHOUT WORDS.

Maybe I should stop picking college games.  You can't even make what happened last week up.  I was feeling pretty good based on the numbers of those games.  Probably the best I've felt starting off the week.  Everything was perfect, the public was all on the favorites (70% or greater) and the lines were either locked in or moving the other way.  Just incredible.  I guess I'm not really the one to blame, I ONLY give picks based on betting trends which are entirely influenced by the wise guys.  So that's it, I'm calling out the wise guys for having shitty information and making dumb bets.  Stop screwing with me in NCAAF.

Alas, I will not give up though, this is for entertainment purposes only!  Just like the captain of the Titantic, I'm going down with the ship (and I'm not conceding that it's going down yet, see: 2015 NFL Winners Record).  Anyway, the results from last week have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including a short synopsis of why I got killed on the gambling front this week:
  • Maryland +15 @ Michigan St. LOSS 7 - 24 (Margin +17)  This clearly wasn't that bad, but Maryland couldn't hit pay dirt two weeks in a row for me.  Five turnovers including a pick 6.  I know the Terps were the right side.  Oh yeah, MD was intercepted on their last drive somewhere inside the MSU 30.

  • NC State +8 @ FSU LOSS 17 - 34 (Margin +17)  Up 10 early and tied at half.  No excuse for the Wolfpack here.  FSU gave them the ball five times.

  • Arkansas St. @ UL-Monroe +14.5 LOSS 59 - 21 (Margin +38)  Started off as a back and forth shootout.  Tied at 21 late in the 2Q.  Then UL-M imploded.  Five turnovers including a pick 6.  Do all college football teams turnover the ball this much?  Or just the ones I pick for winners.  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

  • Florida Int'l +10 @ Marshall LOSS 0 - 52 (Margin +52)  I don't think Marshall is that good on D and I don't think FIU is that bad on offense, but you see the result as plainly as I do.  Again, I have no words.

  • So. Mississippi @ Rice +7.5 LOSS 65 - 10 (Margin +55)  As if the FIU game wasn't nightmare enough, I had to live through it twice.

  • Wyoming +23.5 @ San Diego St. LOSS 3 - 38 (Margin +35)  Down 28, the Cowboys storm down the field to the SDSU 4 yard line in three plays.  Then throw an INT and give up a clock eating drive ending with a TD.

  • DET +12 @ GB WIN 18 - 16 (Margin -2)  This was like a double or a triple win.  Lions win outright, cover easily, AND the Packers lose.

  • CAR @ TEN +4.5 LOSS 27 - 10 (Margin +17)  Was 4 point game at half.  Titans didn't score the rest of the game.  They were primed for a back door cover for the entire second half until the Panthers put them on ice with just under 3 minutes to go.

  • KC +4.5 @ DEN WIN 29 - 13 (Margin -16)  Another outright road win for the underdog.  Denver continued to be overvalued by the public.  Considering how Peyton is injured (didn't know until watching part of the game) it looks like KC should have been favored!  Denver won't be overvalued now!

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 2-7-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 35-39-4 (47.3%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (8 weeks) 25-33-3
NFL 2015 Record (8 weeks):  10-6-1

Overall 2015 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  21 of 76 (27.6%)

Point Differential by week:

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5:  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.
Week 6:  +97 with spread.  +242 straight up.
Week 7:  +5 with spread.  +87 straight up.
Week 8:  +113.5 with spread.  +213 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +257  (+32.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +899  (+112.4/week vs +80.3/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Nov 17 - Nov 23 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Rutgers @ Army +4.5  LOSS

North Carolina @ Va. Tech +4  WIN

LSU @ Ole Miss -6.5  WIN

Mich St. @ Ohio St. -13.5  LOSS


OAK @ DET -1  WIN

DAL @ MIA +1  LOSS

NYJ @ HOU +3  WIN

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