The Titles of My Posts Are Part of A Mike Singletary Speech

Week 5 picks were good.  I don't want to win 'em all, just 54%.  The results have been updated on the original post here.  Also, here is a brief summary, including excuses why some bets lost (that's the best part, explaining away why you were on the RIGHT side):

• Memphis @ Tulsa +10.5 LOSS 66 - 42 (Margin +24) Over 1,200 yards of total offense in this game.  It was a 7 point game early in the 3rd, but Memphis couldn't be stopped.


• Penn St. @ Maryland +6.5 WIN 31 - 30 (Margin +1) In a game with 8 total turnovers, 5 by Maryland, I don't know what happened.  Didn't watch until the end when Maryland had a couple chances to win outright, but still managed to lose.  Whatever, a win is a win.


• Mid. Tenn St. +7.5 @ La. Tech LOSS 16 - 45 (Margin +29) Nothing to see here, move along.


• Missouri @ Vanderbilt +3 WIN 3 - 10 (Margin -7) This line stunk to high heaven.  Produces outright winner.  ANCHOR DOWN!


• HOU +5 @ MIA LOSS 26 - 44 (Margin +18) Ha ha jokes on you!  I started Tannehill on my fake football team.  Yikes, I guess that new coach is better than the old coach.  Houston is also really bad. 


• OAK +4 @ SD WIN 37 - 29 (Margin -8) This game was hard to watch if you were a Chargers fan.  It was great garbage time for Phil Rivers (Yes, he is my QB on my OTHER fake football team and yes, I know you don't care).


• NO +4 @ IND WIN 27 - 21 (Margin -6)  I felt pretty good counting my (hypothetical) money when it was 27 - 0.  I bet other fake football team managers felt good with Andy Luck's stats during garbage time.

NCAA Week 8/NFL Week 7 Record:  4-3-0

Overall 2015 Football Season Record:  22-18-2 (55.0%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (5 weeks) 16-16-1
NFL 2015 Record (5 weeks):  6-2-1

Since my picks will almost never be favorites, I'll track the outright wins of the underdogs in my picks.

Overall 2015 Football Underdog Outright Wins:  14 of 42 (33%)

Something else I'm going to track from now on will be like keeping a total score, but it will show the margin of all my picks.  This point margin will essentially show the value of my picks.  A point margin that is either close to zero OR negative shows good value i.e., the teams I am picking are outscoring their opponents (with and without the spread being factored in).  Example:  NO was getting 4 and also won the game outright by 6.  Margin = -10 with spread and -6 without spread.

Week 1:  -0.5 with spread.  +64 straight up.
Week 2:  -40.5 with spread.  +32 straight up.
Week 3:  +90 with spread.  +160 straight up.
Week 4:  -18 with spread.  +50 straight up.
Week 5;  +10.5 with spread.  +51 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +41.5  (+8.3/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +357  (+71.4/week vs +63.1/week spread)

Here are your NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Picks!  Oct 27 - Nov 2 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

I want to start by saying I wish there wasn't Thursday night football, because I had a couple I liked that are underway now.  They aren't over, but it was Miami (OH), E. Mich, and WVU all taking the points.  Let's see how they finish even though they won't be official picks, because I didn't beat kickoff.  (EDIT Friday 7:57 AM CDT These picks went 1-2, so I guess I lucked out.)

Marshall @ Charlotte +17  LOSS

Troy +23.5 @ App. St.  WIN

Nebraska @ Purdue +7.5  WIN

Illinois +4 @ Penn St.  LOSS

C. Mich @ Akron +3  LOSS

Clemson @ NC St. +10.5  LOSS

Georgia +2 @ Florida  LOSS

Tulsa @ SMU +2.5  LOSS

Texas @ ISU +5.5  WIN

Vanderbilt +12 @ Houston  LOSS

Tennessee-Martin (who?) +37  @ Arkansas  WIN

OK St. @ Tex. Tech +1.5  LOSS

Air Force @ Hawaii +6.5  LOSS (EDIT Last three NCAAF picks added at 9:34 CDT on Sat 10/31/15)

TB +8 @ ATL  WIN

ARI @ CLE +6  LOSS

CIN @ PIT -1.5  LOSS (a favorite? I'm going to regret this, I can tell.  UPDATE Friday 11:20 CDT:  This line is back to a pick 'em.  I'll stick with my original choice for now.  I'll be monitoring the line tomorrow.

MIN @ CHI -1  This should be a pick based on my system, but I want the system to be wrong this time.  I am showing it, but I am not taking credit if it wins.  The public loves the Vikes (71% bets on MIN), yet the line has gone from MIN -3 to its current position.  This stinks to high heaven.  UPDATE Friday 11:20 CDT: this line has gone back and forth more than I've ever seen. Vikes are back to being favored again today.  I still think whatever line CHI gets is the RIGHT side so I wouldn't mind taking CHI +1, but I can't touch this game now.